Election mania

Polarization spreads in this year’s roll-call of elections worldwide [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up [here](. In a year packed with elections, many in Germany wish they could go to the polls too. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government is beset by crises, not all of its own making. Protesting farmers and striking train drivers are merely the latest in a procession of woes compounded by a flatlining economy and questions over Germany’s future as an industrial powerhouse. It’s hard to believe that it’s less than two years since Scholz gave the speech of his political life as he announced Germany’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Even just 12 months ago, voters gave Scholz’s three-way coalition credit for having navigated the energy crisis that ensued from decoupling from Russia. That largesse has now evaporated as the coalition plumbs historic poll lows, with the nationalist right a core beneficiary. Of course Scholz’s coalition bears some responsibility for its travails, having committed policy missteps and succumbed to internal bickering. But his troubles also speak to the shortening of the political cycle, with voter patience running out unreasonably fast. Just ask Donald Tusk in next-door Poland. He’s been prime minister for barely a month and already his pro-European Union government is locked in a constitutional tussle with President Andrzej Duda, who was nominated by the nationalist, EU-skeptic administration that Tusk defeated. This is no regular political disagreement; it’s a no-holds-barred fight for Poland’s future. As such, it’s reminiscent of the polarizing US campaign ahead of November’s presidential election that will cap this year’s [roll call of ballots worldwide](. There was a time when elections decided political debates, at least for a while. That no longer seems to be the case, as leaders challenge the results and refuse to obey political norms. This year will show just how widespread the crisis of democracy has become. —[Alan Crawford]( A banner reading “The Yard Is Burning, Politics Is Sleeping” during a farmers’ protest yesterday in Brandenburg, Germany. Photographer: Krisztian Bocsi/Bloomberg Global Must Reads President Xi Jinping’s chief of staff, Cai Qi, is emerging as one of China’s [most influential politicians](. The nation’s No. 5 official, he sits on the seven-man Politburo Standing Committee and is the only member of the top decision-making body to have publicly traveled overseas with Xi during his more than a decade in power, including at the November meeting with Joe Biden. The International Court of Justice begins hearing arguments alleging that [Israel is committing genocide]( in Gaza. The case, brought by South Africa, marks the first time a court will examine the war in the Hamas-run enclave, where authorities say more than 22,000 Palestinians have been killed since the start of the military campaign that followed the militants’ Oct. 7 attack on Israel. Relatives mourn people killed during an Israeli bombardment in southern Gaza on Jan. 7. Photographer: Ahmad Salem/Bloomberg The US is expected to urge President Volodymyr Zelenskiy at Davos next week to sharpen Ukraine’s plan for repelling Russia’s invasion as the war heads into its third year. [Officials in Washington are concerned]( differences between Zelenskiy and his army chief, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, are slowing efforts to crystallize a new strategy, sources say. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is trying to convince Viktor Orban to end his opposition to European support for Ukraine and to improve relations with Zelenskiy. If the Hungarian premier complies, [it could pave the way]( for his Fidesz party to join the European Conservatives and Reformists alliance alongside Meloni’s Brothers of Italy and other far-right groups, sources say. When Nigeria’s anti-graft commission raided the offices of Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest person, last week, it [sent panic through the West African nation’s boardrooms](. The action was part of a widening investigation into the former head of the central bank and foreign-exchange dealings he oversaw. Dangote Group said it has faced no accusations of wrongdoing and called the incident an “unwarranted embarrassment.” North Korea is looking to send Russia new types of tactical guided missiles, while Pyongyang may soon conduct [fresh tests of its own missiles]( designed to deliver nuclear strikes, South Korea’s defense minister said. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez barely managed to win his [first significant parliamentary vote]( since forming a government, underscoring the challenges facing his coalition over the next four years. Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria joined forces to hunt for mines in the Black Sea, a move aimed at [improving shipping safety]( and shoring up vital Ukrainian grain exports. Washington Dispatch Closing arguments will be presented today in New York State’s $370 million civil fraud suit against Donald Trump after a trial that has lasted almost 11 weeks. New York Attorney General Letitia James accuses the former president of inflating the value of his assets on financial documents for more than a decade to get better terms on loans. The Lower Manhattan courtroom became the setting for several clashes between State Supreme Court Justice Arthur Engoron and Trump. Engoron, who held Trump liable for fraud before the trial began, will issue a verdict without a jury. Trump denies wrongdoing in that case and in the others that have been brought against him. This is happening just days before the Iowa Republican caucuses, which the former president is heavily favored to win. [His failed attempt to speak]( at the New York trial and his appearance earlier this week at an appeals court hearing in Washington concerning one of his federal criminal cases indicates that he intends to make his legal troubles part of his campaign to retake the White House. One thing to watch today: The first release this year on consumer prices by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to show a softening of core inflation in December. [Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter]( for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 5pm ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day Trump’s Iowa ambitions rely on the state’s blue-collar industrial towns, while rival Ron DeSantis is counting on conservative evangelical voters in the rural west. Nikki Haley’s plan for success runs through the suburbs of the state capital, Des Moines. The [stakes are higher than usual](: Monday’s caucuses could reinforce Trump’s domination of the race for the Republican presidential nomination or reveal the first cracks in his apparent invincibility. And Finally Much to the chagrin of everyone from ski-resort managers to schoolkids hoping for a day off, winter in the northern hemisphere has brought very little snow so far. The decline is [leading to devastating consequences]( including a shortage of springtime water vital for human consumption and agriculture. A snowboarder threads through patches of dirt in Olympic Valley, California. Photographer: Max Whittaker/Getty Images More from Bloomberg - Listen to [The Big Take podcast]( on what democracy’s big test means for the economy. It’s also available on [iHeart](, [Apple Podcasts]( and [Spotify]( - Check out our [Bloomberg Investigates]( film series about untold stories and unraveled mysteries - [India Edition](, an insider's guide to the emerging economic powerhouse, and the billionaires and businesses behind its rise - [Economics Daily]( for what the changing landscape means for policy makers, investors and you - [Green Daily]( for the latest in climate news, zero-emission tech and green finance - Explore more newsletters at [Bloomberg.com](. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? 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