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Forward Guidance
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Euro-area inflation shows recovery on track, gasoline jumps to more than $2 a gallon, and a raft of economic data is due
Inflation
Consumer prices in the euro area [rose 1.5 percent in August](, the highest reading in four months and slightly more than the 1.4 percent economists had expected. Unemployment in Germany [fell further](, with the jobless rate remaining at 5.7 percent, the lowest since reunification. Despite the continuing robust performance of the euro-area economy, expectations remain low for a [major policy announcement]( at next week’s European Central Bank meeting.Â
2 bucks a gallon
Gasoline extended its longest surge since 2013 to [pass $2 a gallon]( on the New York Mercantile Exchange as [Harvey]( forces the closure of the Colonial Pipeline, which transports fuel from Texas to the east coast of the U.S. With at least [23 percent]( of the country’s refining capacity offline in the wake of the storm, investors expect supply to remain tight and are [booking tankers]( to haul European gasoline across the Atlantic to meet demand. Crude prices remain broadly unchanged, with a barrel of West Texas Intermediate for October delivery trading at $46.08 at 5:20 a.m. Eastern Time.
Growth outlook
China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers index [rose to 51.7 in August](, ahead of expectations, as industrial output defied a broader slowdown in the economy. Economists are warning that debt-fueled growth before the Communist Party congress is [unsustainable](. One thing that may give the country’s leadership some cause for optimism is the possibility that the yuan, at its highest level in more than a year, is slowly but surely becoming more attractive as an [international alternative to the dollar](.Â
Markets rise
Equity markets are ending the month on a positive note. Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index [added 0.1 percent](, while Japan’s Topix index rallied 0.6 percent as the yen slipped against the dollar. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.6 percent higher at 5:35 a.m. as stocks in the region added to yesterday’s rebound, and S&P 500 futures pointed to a [gain at the open](. Gold remained over $1,300 an ounce and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was at 2.148 percent.
Coming up…
Fed watchers will keep a close eye on the core PCE deflator, the central bank’s favored inflation gauge, when it is published at 8:30 a.m., with expectations for a slowdown to 1.4 percent. Personal income and spending data for July will be published at the same time, with both numbers expected to show continued robust consumer sentiment. Also at 8:30 a.m., weekly initial jobless claims data will give investors one last look at the jobs market ahead of tomorrow’s payrolls report. North of the border, again at 8:30 a.m., second-quarter GDP for Canada is released.Â
Here's what you should read today
- Gold is winning [new fans](.
- America’s jobs engine keeps [defying forecasts]( for a 2017 slowdown.
- Texas’s [sanctuary-city ban]( blocked by federal judge.
- BOE policy maker who voted for rate hike thinks the BOE should [hike rates](.
- Kushners on a [cash hunt](.Â
- Love of [coastal living]( is draining U.S. disaster funds.
- Analyst rightly grew suspicious of gorgeous woman who laughed at his [accounting jokes](.
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And finally, here’s what Joe’s interested in this morning
There are numerous stories that investors are paying attention to in Washington right now. Tax reform, the budget, and the debt ceiling are the big three. One story that perhaps isn't getting as much attention as it should be is the ongoing renegotiation of Nafta, which resumes this Friday. [Bloomberg's Eric Martin has a great piece]( about how President Trump's impatient rhetoric is at odds with the complexities and subtleties of the negotiation process. He also notes that in the past ten days or so, Trump has threatened to withdraw from the trade deal four separate times. It's possible that this is all bluster and that the three parties will come to an agreement, but with the Mexican peso still roughly at its strongest level in more than a year against the dollar, the Nafta story might deserve more attention.
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