5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day

Good morning. Global bonds are heading for the best month since 2008 and corporate insiders are snapping up stocks at a rapid pace, while Bi [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Good morning. Global bonds are heading for the best month since 2008 and corporate insiders are snapping up stocks at a rapid pace, while Bill Ackman sees an early Fed rate cut. Plus US investments in China are in the spotlight. Here’s what people are talking about. —  [Sofia Horta e Costa]( Bullish bets November is almost up and it’s been the best month for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 in 16 months, while globally bonds are[soaring at the fastest pace]( since the 2008 financial crisis. Will it continue? Corporate America certainly thinks so, with the ratio of [insider buyers to sellers]( at the highest in six months, Bank of America’s buyback desk becoming the busiest it’s ever been and Goldman corporate clients in deep share-repurchasing mode. And Bill Ackman, who moved the market when he said [just over a month ago]( he’d covered his Treasury short, is now making a very different bet. The Pershing Square Capital Management founder says there’s ‘a real risk’ of an economic hard landing in the US economy and the Federal Reserve could start to cut interest rates as [soon as the first quarter](. It’s an out-of-consensus call: traders are fully pricing in a rate cut in June. But plenty of investors across the bond market are positioning for a hard landing and aggressive Fed easing next year. JPMorgan’s Treasury client survey, conducted weekly since 1991, found that the most active investors [are as bullish as they’ve ever been]( and have increased their net long positions to 78%. China flows The House [is set to drop]( a measure tightening US investment in Chinese technology from the annual defense policy bill. The measure would require firms to notify the government about certain investments in China and other countries of concern. It was approved by the Senate in its version of the defense bill earlier in the year but faces strong opposition from House Financial Services Chairman Patrick McHenry, who has long preferred an approach that targets individual companies instead of industries more broadly. President Joe Biden’s executive order to curb spending on high-tech sectors in China is still likely to take effect next year. Separately, fast-fashion retailer Shein — which filed confidentially for a US IPO — faces an [uphill battle]( to convince potential American investors that it doesn’t [source cotton in China’s Xinjiang region](, which is at the center of forced labor allegations. LME’s nickel win The London Metal Exchange [won UK court challenges](by both Elliott Investment Management and trading firm Jane Street over its decision to halt a short squeeze in the nickel market last year. The LME drew widespread criticism after it suspended the market and retroactively canceled $12 billion of trades, with Elliott seeking to have the cancelation declared unlawful after it lost money. Can’t remember what happened in the nickel market last year and why it broke? Here’s a [fly-on-the-wall account]( of how the LME sleepwalked into a crisis and was unaware of a massive short squeeze centered around metals giant Tsingshan. Israel latest Negotiators from Qatar, Egypt and the US are pressing for an extension to the truce between Israel and Hamas [that’s entered its final 24 hours](. President Biden on Tuesday called for an end to the fighting and stepped up criticism of Hamas, saying it feared nothing more than Israelis and Palestinians living side-by-side in peace. Hamas, which [turned over]( 12 more hostages to the Red Cross, pledged to adhere to the truce as long as Israel sticks to its end of the deal — the continuation of releases of Palestinian prisoners. Egyptian and Qatari officials were in contact to potentially extend the truce for two more days, according to a report from Al-Qahera News, the Cairo-based broadcaster that typically represents the Egyptian government’s views. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is due to arrive in Israel on Thursday. Coming up… The second print for US third-quarter GDP is due at 8:30 a.m. New York time, with economists expecting a small upward revision to 5%. Data on personal spending and a closely-watched measure of underlying inflation are also due at the same time. Later in the day the Fed will release its Beige Book — an increasingly useful tool for assessing and understanding the impact of monetary tightening as the Fed increasingly[turns to anecdotes]( to assess the economic outlook. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will speak on financial stability at a conference in Chicago. Oil is climbing as traders await a high-stakes OPEC+ meeting on supply. If you earn a raise or a significant bonus this year, what are you planning to do with that money? Do you feel like you need to build out your emergency fund or pay off some debt? Are you thinking about sticking with cash or buying stocks? Share your thoughts about the best steps to boost your personal finances in 2024 in our latest MLIV Pulse survey by clicking on the image below. What we’ve been reading This is what’s caught our eye over the past 24 hours. - Jack Ma urges Alibaba to ‘correct course’ in an [internal staff forum](. - A look at Charlie Munger’s [best quips]( throughout the years. - The Adelsons are buying a [majority stake]( in the Dallas Mavericks. - The AT1 bond market is [bouncing back fast]( from Credit Suisse’s collapse. - Kamala Harris [will attend]( the COP28 climate summit in Dubai. - Brazil’s Lula bets his country’s pivot on climate [will steal the show](. - At least one person died in a US military aircraft crash [near Japan](. And finally, here's what Joe’s interested in this morning As of the time I'm typing this, the 10-year yield is below 4.3%. Obviously the view continues to harden that the rate hiking cycle is over, and the only debate left is when they will cut rates. The speech by Fed Governor Waller yesterday was widely seen as dovish, with markets pricing in cuts even sooner. Then Ackman, who nailed the top of the cycle, said he expects cuts in Q1. So you can just watch the new views forming in real time. One thing that's interesting is that while bonds have obviously been rallying since late October, bonds themselves haven't done anything special for the portfolio. Back pre-Covid, one nice thing about bonds was how they had this balancing effect. During periods where risky assets were going down, bonds would rally. And then during periods of risk on, bonds wouldn't lose that money. A nice, diversifying cushion. In the new regime, they basically do what stocks do. The popular TLT ETF is up 10.5% since its October low. The SPY ETF is up 10.7% since its October low. QQQ is up 13.5% since its October low. So at least for the moment what's striking is that even when bonds are rallying, they're not really doing anything special. Unlike from 2009-2020, they're basically a different flavor of risky assets. Joe Weisenthal is the co-host of Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast. Follow him on X [@TheStalwart]( Like Bloomberg's Five Things? [Subscribe for unlimited access]( to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. [Bloomberg Markets Wrap: The latest on what's moving global markets. Tap to read.]( Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. 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