Ukraine’s winter test of will

Ukraine enters a second winter of war with Russia [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up [here](. These are hard days for Ukraine as it enters a second winter of war with Russia. Its long-prepared summer counteroffensive [failed to live up to expectations](. That’s sown doubts among some of Ukraine’s allies about sustaining the supply of weapons for a war going nowhere, adding to anxieties in Kyiv. It’s music to Vladimir Putin’s ears as the Russian president seeks to consolidate his seizure of parts of southern and eastern Ukraine. Despite massive casualties and economic costs, the Kremlin feels it can wait for a splintering of international support for Ukraine that would allow Moscow to force acceptance of its gains. That’s a challenge for NATO, whose foreign ministers meet in Brussels today for talks with their Ukrainian counterpart on measures to align Kyiv’s military more closely with the alliance’s standards. The Israel-Hamas war has [diverted international attention]( and slowed arms shipments to Ukraine even as the US and its European allies insist they’ll stand by Kyiv for as long as it takes. Formally, they support Ukraine’s goal of NATO membership. That’s only realistic if the war is won. Alongside mounting divisions in Europe, Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House in next year’s presidential elections is adding to Russian expectations that time is working in Putin’s favor. Trump has repeatedly criticized US lawmakers for aiding Kyiv. Ukrainians know they have no choice but to fight on because they’re in an existential struggle against a neighbor determined to erase their state. There’s a lot at stake for the US and Europe too. When Putin invaded, they accused him of an assault on the security of the continent that couldn’t be allowed to succeed. This winter will test their will to make good on those words. Ukrainian soldiers before starting a night mission at the front line near Bakhmut on Oct. 26. Photographer: Julia Kochetova/Bloomberg Global Must Reads Israel and Hamas extended their truce until Thursday after agreeing to release more hostages and prisoners, as the US sent its top envoy to the region for more talks over the conflict in Gaza. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will press for a long-term solution to the crisis that will include creating [an independent Palestinian state](. About 70 of the 240 hostages taken in Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack on Israel have been freed. Judge Linda Chan is presiding over China’s great financial reckoning. Never in recent memory has a bankruptcy judge in Hong Kong earned a [reputation for holding deadbeat companies]( — including some of the behemoths that had once powered the economic boom that made China the envy of the world — to account quite like Chan. Argentine President-elect Javier Milei headed straight to the tomb of a famous Orthodox Jewish rabbi in Queens after he arrived in New York City, donning a kippah and an all black outfit. It was a sign his incoming administration is shaping up to be one of the [most pro-Israel governments]( in the nation’s history, while much of Latin America, a Catholic stronghold, remains neutral or even critical of Israel’s war in Gaza. Milei leaves after praying yesterday at the tomb of Rabbi Menachem Mendel Schneerson. Photographer: Andres Kudacki/AP Photo South Africa has reduced the percentage of its population infected with the virus that causes AIDS, offering lessons for other countries [battling the scourge](. A study that showed the country with the world’s biggest number of HIV cases is “on the right track” is helping authorities design nuanced and regionally specific programs to curb the spread. In a troubling sign for UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s government before a probable election next year, a new poll shows most British voters don’t expect tax cuts proposed by Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt [to improve their finances]( or the nation’s economy. Sunak is desperately trying to claw back support from people who have switched to the opposition Labour Party. Sunak triggered a diplomatic spat with Greece over [the repatriation of the Parthenon marbles]( by canceling at the last minute a one-on-one with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis in London. North Korea claimed its first spy satellite, launched into orbit last week, took [photos of the White House](, Pentagon and US naval stations. Sierra Leone said that 13 of its soldiers were [killed in clashes with gunmen]( following attacks Sunday on an army base in the capital, Freetown. Washington Dispatch The US House, which recommences in the Capitol today, may soon take up a third resolution to expel George Santos, the New York Republican [who’s under federal indictment]( and has been accused of violating rules of the chamber. The latest move to oust Santos gathered momentum after the House Ethics Committee accused him of falsely reporting loans received by his 2020 campaign, making “systemic” errors in his 2020 and 2022 Federal Election Commission filings and using campaign funds for personal use. An expulsion from the House or the Senate requires a vote of at least two-thirds of members. Santos, whose district includes parts of Long Island and Queens, has acknowledged that his days in the chamber may be numbered. In a conversation on X Spaces he said: “I’ve done the math over and over, and it doesn’t look really good.” Speaker Mike Johnson told reporters yesterday that he had spoken to the congressman over the weekend and “talked about his options.” Santos has said he won’t resign. One thing to watch today: The Conference Board’s index of consumer confidence will be released. [Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter]( for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 5pm ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day More than 70,000 people are expected in Dubai for the COP28 summit to talk about arresting the world’s slide toward environmental catastrophe. The [need for progress]( has never been more urgent: 2023 will almost certainly be the hottest year on record, greenhouse gas emissions are still rising and promises to cut pollution remain insufficient to take the risk of unmanageable warming off the table. And Finally Shopkeepers shifted nervously as scores of young tax agents went door-to-door in Nairobi’s Eastleigh district when President William Ruto’s ambitious plans to boost revenue came to the Kenyan capital’s main shopping stretch. David Herbling writes that deploying 1,400 tax collectors — touted by the government as [“paramilitary trained” in order to discourage resistance]( — is the most aggressive in a long line of controversial steps by Ruto to nearly double the government’s revenue collection to a quarter of gross domestic product by 2030. Kenya Revenue Authority agents visit a store in Nairobi on Oct. 19. Photographer: Benson Ibeabuchi/Bloomberg More from Bloomberg - Watch the [Bloomberg Investigates]( film series about untold stories and unraveled mysteries - [Bloomberg Opinion]( for a roundup of our most vital opinions on business, politics, economics, tech and more - [Next Africa](, a twice-weekly newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it’s headed - [Economics Daily]( for what the changing landscape means for policy makers, investors and you - [Green Daily]( for the latest in climate news, zero-emission tech and green finance - Explore more newsletters at [Bloomberg.com](. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Balance of Power newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox. 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