5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day

Good morning. US consumers face a Black Friday test, Treasuries catch up with a drop in global bonds and German data sends conflicting signa [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Good morning. US consumers face a Black Friday test, Treasuries catch up with a drop in global bonds and German data sends conflicting signals. Here’s what’s moving markets.  —[David Goodman]( Black Friday US consumers face a test of their resilience during the annual Black Friday shopping extravaganza, as they seek out the best deals while facing economic pressures such as higher prices and soaring interest rates. But the early signs are it could be a good one for retailers. A Deloitte [report earlier this week]( showed consumers plan to spend a record average of $567 during Black Friday and Cyber Monday shopping events, up 13% from last year. Meanwhile, the National Retail Federation estimates 182 million people are planning to shop from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday, the most since 2017. US markets catch up Treasuries [declined on Friday](, catching up with moves in global bonds after trading resumed following the Thanksgiving holiday. Meanwhile US equity futures were steady, leaving the S&P 500 on course for its fourth straight weekly gain. Aside from Black Friday, the big event of the day is S&P’s US PMI report, which is predicted to show the nation’s economy ground out some growth in November. German data European investors were faced on Friday with a set of data that painted a mixed picture of Germany’s economy. First, a report confirmed that the economy contracted in the third quarter — a drop that was[driven by a decline in household spending]( and kicks off what the Bundesbank reckons may be a recession.  Then a separate report showed business confidence improved for a third month in November, albeit a measure that fell below analysts’ expectations. While stocks wavered on Friday, traders seemed to be increasingly focusing on the more optimistic side of things, pushing stocks slightly higher throughout the European morning. China support Real estate [developer stocks and bonds rallied]( in China this week on bets that authorities may introduce some of the most sweeping measures yet, creating a draft list of firms eligible for bank support while weighing a plan that would allow banks to offer them unsecured loans for the first time. The support is being seen as a signal that President Xi Jinping’s tolerance for property sector pain is nearing its limit. Beijing also wants to ensure developers have enough cash to finish the millions of homes under construction, even if it means added risks for its banks. Israel pause The [first truce since the war between Israel and Hamas erupted]( last month went into effect on Friday morning. The deal came after weeks of complex and delicate talks brokered by Qatar, the US and Egypt. The halt in fighting is intended to last for four days. Hamas, an Iran-backed militant group, is meant to return 50 of the almost 240 hostages it captured from Israel, while the Israelis will release 150 jailed Palestinians and allow more aid into Gaza. What We’ve Been Reading This is what’s caught our eye over the past 24 hours. - UK consumers are more [confident than expected]( heading into Christmas. - [Billionaires eye renting in London]( as interest rates dent buying. - Landlord SBB [buys back €417 million of bonds]( to ease crunch. - Nissan pledges £2 billion to [expand UK electric vehicle hub](. - Barclays[plans to cut £1 billion in costs](, Reuters says. - Japan’s [inflation quickens](, clouding price outlook for BOJ. - The country where [houses are bought in $100 bills](. And finally, here's what Garfield’s interested in this morning Central bankers have this month continued to warn bond markets that they are overly eager to price in rate cuts. European Central Bank head Christine Lagarde said it’s too early to declare victory over inflation. UK and Australian policymakers made it clear their economies may still need further rate hikes. One ECB official even declared that investors betting on rate cuts risk actually loosening financial conditions enough to lay the groundwork for a fresh hike. The Bank of Japan, meantime, looked like it was shifting a bit more toward at least thinking about tightening policy. It trimmed some bond purchases and is pulling back from buying equities and real estate investment trusts. Pimco was encouraged enough to start buying the yen on anticipation a sea change is on the way. Africa’s biggest economies, however, remain stuck in a world where even a plateau in rates may be hard to achieve. Acute currency weakness and brisk inflation mean a number of major nations are likely to hike rates — as Angola just did — while others are firmly in higher-for-longer mode. Nigeria’s central bank scrapped a policy meeting for a second time since Governor Olayemi Cardoso was nominated to the post in September, raising concerns about attempts to bolster the nation’s currency, which has plunged more than 40% this year. Garfield Reynolds is Bloomberg’s chief rates correspondent. Follow him on X [@GarfieldR1966](. Like Bloomberg's Five Things? [Subscribe for unlimited access]( to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. 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