A brief respite in Gaza

The truce in Israel-Hamas war may be brief [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up [here](. The four-day truce in Israel’s offensive against Iran-backed Hamas in return for the militant group releasing dozens of hostages [is a blessed respite]( for the residents of Gaza. It may mark only a temporary lull. With Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political survival at stake, he and Hamas share a common reality: ending the war now is not in their interests. As the number of Palestinians killed nears 15,000, according to authorities in the Hamas-run enclave, international calls are getting louder for a permanent cease-fire. That’s rejected by Israel, which has vowed to destroy Hamas after it stormed into southern Israeli communities and military bases on Oct. 7, killing 1,200 people and abducting 240 others. Exiting now would seem like defeat. But it’s a goal that appears unrealizable with Hamas, designated a terrorist organization by the US and European Union, deeply entrenched in a vast and secret tunnel network that it can use to fight Israel. The US, which along with Qatar and Egypt led negotiations on the cease-fire and prisoner exchange deal, has been urging Israel to ease the humanitarian crisis in the blockaded and crowded coastal strip. It’s hoping Israel will prolong the truce, during which Hamas is expected to release 50 women and children in stages and Israel is to free 150 Palestinian females and youths from prison. The cease-fire can be extended by a day for every 10 additional hostages handed over. Israel has indicated it may escalate the war by moving to seize control of southern Gaza where civilians have fled to — which would further inflame Arab and international public opinion. Without an end to the fighting and diplomatic efforts to revive a two-state solution for the Palestinians, the interests of the US and its allies will suffer. It would strengthen Israel’s arch-foe Iran and make an historic deal on Saudi Arabia and the Jewish state establishing ties an even more distant prospect. —[Henry Meyer]( Palestinians return to their homes in Khan Younis in southern Gaza today. Photographer: Mahmud Hams/Getty Images Global Must Reads The implosion of a potential opposition alliance in Taiwan that aimed to [install a China-friendly government]( boosts the chances of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party’s candidate in the Jan. 13 election. The presidential vote will not only shape cross-strait relations for decades, but also impact the nature of the US’s already tense ties with China. When far-right leader Geert Wilders delivered his victory speech after the shock Dutch election result, he emphasized a willingness to compromise with potential coalition partners. But many voters who backed other parties are worried the Netherlands is about to lurch into the kind of [populist politics]( that characterized Donald Trump’s US presidency. Geert Wilders at the election night party in The Hague. Photographer: Peter Boer/Bloomberg Libertarian economist Javier Milei won Sunday’s election in Argentina after slamming Brazil and China, his nation’s two main trading partners. Now the president-elect is [toning down his abrasive rhetoric]( and playing nice with both countries, suggesting that his administration may not be quite so disruptive for international affairs as his radical campaign promised. The turmoil unleashed by last week’s court ruling on off-budget funds has prompted [renewed debate about borrowing limits]( written into Germany’s constitution. Greens Economy Minister Robert Habeck, who’s also the vice chancellor, reiterated a call for the so-called debt brake to be overhauled to provide greater flexibility, saying yesterday that “others are wrapping horseshoes in their boxing gloves; we don’t even have our arms free.” North Korea celebrated the deployment of its new spy satellite with breathless displays on state television, a banquet with rocket scientists and space agency T-shirts — including one prominently worn by [leader Kim Jong Un’s daughter](. The foreign ministers of China, Japan and South Korea plan to meet this weekend to help revive three-way leaders’ [summits of the Asian powerhouses]( that have been on hold since 2019 due to the Covid pandemic and political rancor. Violence engulfed central Dublin after three children and a woman [were stabbed near a school](, prompting rioters in the Irish capital to fire flares and fireworks at police and throw garbage they had set on fire. Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis is expected to raise the contentious issue of [the Parthenon Marbles]( during his visit to the UK next week in a bid to resolve a centuries-long feud over the historical artifacts. Washington Dispatch About 32,000 more babies are being born annually in the US after the Supreme Court overruled the constitutional right to abortion, an analysis showed. Births rose an average of 2.3% in states with prohibitions on abortion compared with those where the procedure remained available, the Georgia Institute of Technology and Middlebury College said in a report that analyzed data from the first six months of 2023. After the Dobbs decision that [overturned nearly 50 years of precedent]( set in 1973 by Roe v. Wade, 13 states with “trigger bans” moved quickly to prohibit abortions. The effect on birth rates was especially large for Hispanic women as well as those from the ages of 20 to 24. One thing to watch today: The enthusiasm of shoppers on Black Friday may provide an indication of the US economy’s strength. [Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter]( for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 5pm ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day At Thanksgiving, food is the main attraction, but some 312 million pounds (136 million kilograms) of it will end up in the trash this week. The United Nations World Food Programme estimates that about 30% of all food produced for human consumption globally is thrown away. And that is a major contributor to [global warming](. As Zahra Hirji writes, 58% of methane emissions escaping from US landfills come from food waste, the Environmental Protection Agency says. And Finally Ana Clara Benevides, 23, collapsed inside Rio de Janeiro’s Nilton Santos stadium at a Taylor Swift concert on Nov. 17 and died later in hospital in the midst of a heat wave in Brazil. The next day thermometers in the city hit a peak of 43.8C (110.8F) the highest temperature recorded since at least 2014. This shouldn’t be a surprise. [Scientific models have accurately predicted]( for years that global warming leads to more extreme and frequent heat waves. Taylor Swift fans wait in high temperatures outside the Nilton Santos Olympic stadium. Photographer: Silvia Izquierdo/AP Photo Pop quiz (no cheating!) Which country’s former leader threatened to come out of political retirement if his daughter is impeached as vice-president? Send your answers to balancepower@bloomberg.net. 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