A glimmer of hope

A lasting cease-fire is not part of Israel’s plan [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up [here](. Can a deal to release 50 Israeli women and children in exchange for 150 Palestinian prisoners and a four-day cessation of the war result in anything more lasting? That would seem unlikely. Just before Israel’s cabinet gave its approval, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said a lasting [cease-fire wasn’t part of the plan](. “We are at war and we will continue it until we achieve all the objectives,” he said. But there could be some wiggle room. Israel’s cabinet has opened the door to pause the bombardment of Gaza for up to 10 days should Hamas release more of the remaining hostages it captured during its Oct. 7 attack that left 1,200 dead. Should that happen, some trust could be re-established. Diplomatic sources confirm that [those who worked tirelessly]( on the hostage deal will now use the break to spur talks on something more lasting. Officials in Qatar, Egypt and the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank have all expressed such hopes too. But first, the initial hostage deal will have to be respected. Pauses in past conflicts in Gaza have been flouted. And Hamas, designated as a terrorist organization by the US and the European Union, is committed to the destruction of Israel. And many feel peace would probably depend on a shift in thinking in Washington, where the Joe Biden administration so far has supported Israel’s offensive, albeit while urging the military to reduce the number of civilian deaths. Around 14,000 people have lost their lives in Gaza, according to the territory’s Hamas-run government. And with Israeli air strikes continuing even while the cabinet was meeting on the hostage accord, Hafsa Halawa, a Dubai-based non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute, said “it can still get much, much worse.” —[Simon Marks]( A Palestinian child is taken to the Nasser hospital following an Israeli strike on a house in Khan Younis on Nov. 18. Photographer: Ahmad Salem/Bloomberg Global Must Reads Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte is the frontrunner to take over as [NATO chief]( when Jens Stoltenberg steps down next year, sources say, overshadowing other candidates including Estonian Premier Kaja Kallas. Rutte has said he’ll leave politics after a new cabinet is formed following elections today. Far-right [populist]( Geert Wilders jumped to first place in the latest poll, setting the stage for him to enter government. A dose of economic shock therapy is needed to balance Argentina’s budget next year to avoid hyperinflation, President-elect Javier Milei said. Fresh off his landslide election win, Milei vowed yesterday to [drastically cut government spending]( because “there’s no money.” Failure to do so would further boost consumer prices that are already soaring more than 140% a year. Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban wants sweeping new powers to detect and punish [foreign influences]( in the EU nation. His ruling party plans to set up a powerful Sovereignty Protection Agency under a bill that would also impose prison terms of up to three years on politicians who accept foreign funds in elections. Authorities would gain powers to shutter civil groups deemed to breach the regulations. An escalating conflict between Myanmar’s military and ethnic groups seeking autonomy is now “the largest in scale and most extensive geographically” since the 2021 coup, the United Nations’ humanitarian agency said. More than 286,000 people have fled their homes since an alliance of ethnic armies [launched an offensive]( in northern Shan State in late October and the fighting has since spread to other regions. Newly arrived refugees from Myanmar rest on a beach today in Sabang, Indonesia. Photographer: Chaideer Mahyuddin/AFP/Getty Images Huawei alarmed politicians from Washington to Tokyo when it took the wraps off a $900 smartphone that signaled China’s rapid advance in chip technology. The episode showed how Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. [has emerged as Beijing’s secret weapon]( in breaking through US sanctions aimed at containing China’s technological progress. UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt aims to [boost business investment]( by £20 billion ($25 billion) a year with a package of measures today in his Autumn Statement. North Korea claimed it successfully put a [spy satellite into orbit]( after two attempts earlier this year ended in failure, as leader Kim Jong Un pledged to place more in the sky to keep an eye on US forces in the region. Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte said he would be compelled to [come out of retirement]( and run to become a senator or seek the nation’s second-highest post if his daughter, Vice President Sara Duterte, is impeached. Washington Dispatch The presidential campaign of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis yesterday [trumpeted the endorsement]( of Bob Vander Plaats, a prominent Iowa conservative, as it tries to cut into former President Donald Trump’s wide polling lead with the state’s caucuses less than two months away. Vander Plaats heads an organization called the Family Leader, which describes its mission as “inspiring the Church to engage Government for the advance of God’s Kingdom and the strengthening of Family.” His show of support comes shortly after another major endorsement — from the state’s governor, Kim Reynolds. Both Reynolds and Vander Plaats are influential among evangelical voters, whose support will be crucial in the caucuses. The DeSantis campaign has moved more staff to Iowa as the candidate, who has vowed to visit all 99 counties, pursues a make-or-break effort for a strong showing that will propel him into other primary contests. At the same time, however, he faces a threat from former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, who has risen in polls and gained new donor interest thanks to strong debate performances. One thing to watch today: The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index will be released. [Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter]( for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 5pm ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day The UK Conservatives could stop the opposition Labour Party from winning a parliamentary majority at the next election if they can claw back just six points in the polls, the research consultancy Stonehaven says. The relatively narrow margin reflects the [electoral hole Labour dug]( for itself in 2019, when Jeremy Corbyn led the party to its worst defeat since 1935. And Finally Amelia Ixcoy gets up at the crack of dawn to start kneading flour and hoisting trays filled with balls of dough into the furnace at her bakery, as she races to prepare enough loaves before El Palmar, a town in the Guatemalan highlands, wakes up. For Ixcoy, [it’s a way to keep her family together](. She’s able to operate the bakery by obtaining a loan from a community cooperative that pools together remittances from Guatemalans abroad, part of a drive to help people start local firms rather than embark on illegal, and often dangerous, journeys to the US. Ixcoy has almost paid off the loan she received to start her bakery. Photographer: Catherine Davison More from Bloomberg - Listen to our [X Space discussion]( on Hunt’s Autumn Statement and what happens next with UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s cabinet shakeup - Check out our [Bloomberg Investigates]( film series about untold stories and unraveled mysteries - [Bloomberg Opinion]( for a roundup of our most vital opinions on business, politics, economics, tech and more - [Economics Daily]( for what the changing landscape means for policy makers, investors and you - [Green Daily]( for the latest in climate news, zero-emission tech and green finance - Explore more newsletters at [Bloomberg.com](. 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