No escaping a hotter planet

No one can escape global warming [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up [here](. Whoever you are, wherever you live in the world, it’s likely you felt the heat from climate change this past 12 months. The world [was 1.32C warmer than it was before the Industrial Revolution]( and for 99% of people, the weather was hotter than it has been on average in recent years. That’s an alarming background as policymakers head to Dubai for [COP28, the United Nations climate conference](, at the end of this month. Drawing connections between the daily ebb and flow of world weather and the steady drumbeat of global warming is a tricky and relatively young science. Climate Central, which carried out this analysis, uses models and recent averages to tease out the counterfactual — a world without climate change — from our reality of rising temperatures. Some 500 million people in 200 cities experienced day after day of extreme heat, made up to five times more likely by global warming. The physical effects are also obvious. In the US, boiling hot sidewalks left people with second-degree burns; in East Africa, an exceptionally long-lasting cyclone killed hundreds; in Brazil, the Amazon River has receded to record lows. Climate change is a current — rather than future — threat. The most vulnerable people are the least able to shield themselves. Scientists are running out of ways to describe it. “Gobsmackingly bananas,” is how one [memorably termed September’s temperature rise](. “Extraordinary” is what Joyce Kimutai, principal meteorologist at the Kenya Meteorological Department, says about this year. For Carlo Buontempo, director of Europe’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, we’re in “uncharted territory.” Whatever the superlatives, hard questions will need to be asked in Dubai about how to stop the carbon emissions that threaten more chaos in future — and how to help the poorest survive the shocks that are already here.— [Olivia Rudgard]( WATCH: US Climate Envoy John Kerry discusses the significance of COP28 at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Singapore. Source: Bloomberg Global Must Reads Ever since Hamas militants attacked southern Israel on Oct. 7, life on Israel’s northern border has taken a radical turn, with tens of thousands evacuated and the army moving in with tanks, artillery and troops. The fear is that Hezbollah, a Lebanon-based Islamist group, may be preparing [to join the war]( — or breach the boundary with Israel in a fresh attack. Palestinians fleeing northern Gaza on Wednesday. Photographer: Mahmud Hams/AFP/Getty Images Funding delays have forced the US to begin restricting military assistance to Ukraine, and the Pentagon said it has only $1 billion left to [replenish stocks of weapons]( sent to the country. “We’re going to continue to roll out packages but they are getting smaller,” Deputy Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh said, urging Congress to approve the Biden administration’s $61.4 billion request for emergency funds. The US’s top general said he doubts Chinese President Xi Jinping plans to try to take Taiwan militarily and will use other ways to secure unification with the island. The comments by Charles Q. Brown Jr., chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, [may help to ease tensions]( on one of the biggest points of contention in the China-US relationship as President Joe Biden and Xi prepare to meet. Germany will significantly expand its military capabilities, Chancellor Olaf Scholz said, as the nation builds out its role as the “central hub” of NATO in Europe. “There is absolutely no question that the turning point that Russia’s war of aggression represents requires a long-term, [permanent change of course](,” Scholz said at an event organized by the Bundeswehr. Panama’s deal with First Quantum Minerals of Canada last month triggered protests that quickly [spiraled beyond discontent]( with its giant copper mine. Already seething over inflation, unemployment and corruption, and with an election looming, public resentment in Panama boiled over. The episode that raises questions about the massive investments that will be required worldwide to extract critical minerals essential for the energy transition. The Philippines said a Chinese coast guard vessel today [fired a water cannon]( at a ship transporting provisions to a military outpost near a disputed reef in the South China Sea. Trades handled by the world’s largest bank in the globe’s biggest market traversed Manhattan on a [USB thumb drive]( yesterday after a cyberattack hit Industrial & Commercial Bank of China’s US unit. West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin announced yesterday he won’t seek reelection, a [blow to Democrats’ prospects]( for keeping their US Senate majority in 2025. Washington Dispatch Swing-state voters see US-Mexico border security as a greater priority than the foreign policy crises that are increasingly dominating Biden’s attention, a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll shows. The results suggest a difficult balancing act for Biden’s reelection campaign, in which his administration’s national-security focus — supporting Israel as it battles Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip, and backing Ukraine against the Russian invasion — are not primary concerns for the voters he must win over. About three times as many said immigration is their top issue in the 2024 presidential contest as those who said the same about the Israel-Hamas war. Some 68% of respondents said they approve of funding for border protection, a larger share than the 61% who back aid to Israel or the 58% who favor assistance for Ukraine. One thing to watch today: A preliminary reading of the University of Michigan’s survey of consumer sentiment for November. [Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter]( for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 5pm ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day Partisan politics in the US appear to be shaping consumers’ adoption of electric vehicles, as sales lag in Republican strongholds where gas prices are cheaper. This [resistance to battery-powered cars]( presents a challenge for the auto industry and Biden as they work to convert American buyers to the new technology. And Finally War on the ground is having an impact on what happens in the air above. The Israel-Hamas conflict in a part of the [world already replete with danger zones]( is adding to the complications of flying between east and west. That’s after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shut down swaths of airspace to many transnational carriers. The result is curtailed services and hours added to many routes plied by aircraft on long—distance journeys. Pop quiz (no cheating!) Which country’s president is accelerating efforts to recover as much as $20 billion in treasure from a three-century-old shipwreck before his term ends in 2026? Send your answers to balancepower@bloomberg.net. More from Bloomberg - [Middle East Briefing](, a weekly look at what’s happening in the region and where it’s heading - [Bloomberg Opinion]( for a roundup of our most vital opinions on business, politics, economics, tech and more - [Next Africa](, a twice-weekly newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it’s headed - [Economics Daily]( for what the changing landscape means for policy makers, investors and you - [Green Daily]( for the latest in climate news, zero-emission tech and green finance - Explore more newsletters at [Bloomberg.com](. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Balance of Power newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox. [Unsubscribe]( [Bloomberg.com]( [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington Avenue, New York, NY 10022 [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( [Ad Choices](