US influence is waning

How to reach a common line in a splintering world order [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up [here](. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s latest foray to the Middle East brought little visible progress on his aim of a temporary halt to hostilities between Israel and Hamas to allow humanitarian aid into Gaza. What it did yield was a clear disregard for the US position, as Israel bluntly rejected his plea and Arab nations demanded a full ceasefire. After a brief visit to Turkey, Blinken heads on to Japan, South Korea and India, where he can expect a more receptive audience as he attempts to refocus attention on the core US concern of China. But the broader challenge for Washington is becoming clearer with each new crisis: How to hold the line in a splintering world order where nations feel increasingly emboldened to question the US position on events — on both the Israel-Hamas war and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. When Blinken was last in India, for the Group of 20 summit in September, the US and its allies attempted to regain the initiative with the so-called Global South by elevating the African Union to a full G-20 member. It also took action on issues like climate change and debt that are priorities of emerging markets, hitting back at Russia’s blaming NATO and the West for the Ukraine conflict and its fallout. Since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel, the charge is one of hypocrisy, with a sense — expressed by Jordan’s King Abdullah II, a core US ally — that the West is selective in its application of human rights and international law. Without addressing such perceptions, the US risks losing the narrative to Russia and China. With two wars soaking up US attention, the threat of conflict over Taiwan, plus other spots flashing red, Washington’s response could be existential for President Joe Biden’s electoral fortunes — but also for the world. — [Alan Crawford]( Blinken waits to board a helicopter yesterday in Baghdad. Photographer: Jonathan Ernst/AFP/Getty Images Global Must Reads No foreigners, dual-nationals or injured Palestinians were able to leave the Gaza Strip over the weekend and it’s unclear whether they’ll be able to anytime soon. The United Nations’ Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs blamed the development on the failure of Hamas, Israel and Egypt to [reach a deal on the safe evacuation]( of patients from northern Gaza. Russia is moving to expand its military presence in eastern Libya, a plan that could lead to a naval base and give it a significant [foothold on Europe’s southern doorstep](. Moscow has had a covert presence in the North African oil exporter for years via the Wagner mercenary group, and the Defense Ministry has been taking control of its activities since leader Yevgeny Prigozhin and his top aides died in a mysterious plane crash in August. The specter of German nationalism has returned as the European Union’s biggest economy wrestles with a persistent slump and a surge in immigration, leaving [citizens more conflicted]( over their country’s direction. Those tensions are rippling through the rest of the EU, too, as it confronts Russian aggression in Ukraine and the turmoil stirred up by Israel’s war with Hamas. WATCH: The specter of German nationalism has returned. Source: Bloomberg It’s the election no one wants. With a year to go until polling day, a record share of Americans [hold unfavorable opinions]( of both major parties and take a dim view of the front-runners. Most say they don’t want Biden or Donald Trump to be president. And yet polls show they are poised to coast to their party’s nominations once the primaries begin in January. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese today became the first Australian leader to meet with President Xi Jinping in China in more than seven years, [sealing a rapid recovery in diplomatic relations]( between the nations. Albanese flew to Beijing yesterday after starting his visit in Shanghai and said he’s convinced that the two countries could build a constructive relationship. Support for Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s government [hit a fresh low]( in a major poll to fall below a level seen as a danger zone for premiers, with respondents indicating they did not back his latest economic stimulus package. Elon Musk revealed his own artificial intelligence bot to challenge OpenAI’s ChatGPT, claiming the prototype is [already superior to ChatGPT 3.5]( across several benchmarks. President Yoweri Museveni derided the US over its [withdrawal of Uganda’s preferential trade access]( because of its draconian anti-LGBTQ laws and said the East African nation can achieve its development targets without American support. Washington Dispatch Blinken will take part in a Group of Seven gathering of foreign ministers in Tokyo, where he will also meet with Kishida and Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa. After that he moves on to Seoul, for talks with President Yoon Suk Yeol, Foreign Minister Park Jin, and National Security Adviser Cho Tae-yong, and then to New Delhi, where he will participate in the 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue, joined by Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. In each capital, according to the State Department, he intends to “advance collaborative efforts to support a free and open Indo-Pacific region that is prosperous, secure, connected, and resilient.” One thing to watch today: Florida Governor Ron DeSantis will receive a crucial endorsement, from Governor Kim Reynolds of Iowa, whose state votes first in the Republican presidential contest. [Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter]( for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 5pm ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day An acute shortage of skilled workers is restraining already tepid growth in South Africa, limiting job creation and pushing some foreign investors to consider moving their money elsewhere. Yet inefficiencies at the government department that could resolve the problem have been accused of exacerbating it by failing to deal with a visa system that appears to be causing [self-inflicted damage]( to the economy. And Finally Colombian President Gustavo Petro is accelerating efforts to recover as much as $20 billion in treasure from a [three-century-old shipwreck]( before his term ends in 2026. When the Spanish galleon was sunk in battle by the British in 1708, it carried silver, gold and gems. No one knows for sure how much it might be worth, but its value has been estimated at anywhere from $4 billion to $20 billion. US treasure hunters say they found it first and are demanding half the value. The San Jose galleon on the Caribbean Sea floor. Source: Armada de la Republica de Colombia Thanks to the 36 people who answered the Friday quiz and congratulations to Vassilis Nakos, who was the first to name Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni as the leader tricked by a pair of notorious Russian pranksters into commenting about the war in Ukraine. 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