5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day

Good morning. It’s US GDP day and economists are predicting a strong release, while we have a fly-on-the-wall account on what happened at Mo [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Good morning. It’s US GDP day and economists are predicting a strong release, while we have a fly-on-the-wall account on what happened at Morgan Stanley when its new CEO was announced. Plus the latest on Israel. Here’s what people are talking about. — [Sofia Horta e Costa]( GDP day US economic activity will [probably blow past]( already-high consensus estimates for the third quarter, according to Bloomberg Economics. The team predicts a 4.9% pace of expansion on an annualized basis, higher than the 4.5% average estimate in a survey of outside forecasters, largely because of a “frenzy of summer spending on travel and entertainment,” writes Bloomberg economist Eliza Winger. She warns that the pace of growth is unsustainable and likely to have been driven by one-off factors like the ‘Barbenheimer’ movie blockbusters and concert tours by Taylor Swift and Beyonce. Bloomberg Economics projects a shallow recession will begin in the fourth quarter. Pick picked Morgan Stanley insider Ted Pick will become the bank’s [new chief executive officer]( when James Gorman steps back from the role in January after 14 years. Pick, a co-president and three-decade veteran of the firm, beat out two other CEO contenders: Co-President Andy Saperstein and Dan Simkowitz (who has led investment management), both of whom will take on new responsibilities at Morgan Stanley, avoiding the dramatic exits that often play out on Wall Street when new leaders take over. One of the more pressing challenges for Pick will be to restore market share in the investment bank after ceding ground to Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan. Morgan Stanley is waiting on a rebound in capital markets and dealmaking activity to help revive that business. [Here’s what happened]( inside Morgan Stanley after Pick was, well, picked. Israel latest Israeli tanks and infantry [entered northern Gaza overnight]( in the latest limited incursion, according to the Israel Defense Forces. The military said it attacked numerous cells, infrastructure and anti-tank missile launch posts before returning to Israeli territory. US President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed the situation in Gaza by phone — including efforts to secure the release of hostages and ways to ramp up aid deliveries — while Russian President Vladimir Putin said there’s a risk that an escalating conflict could “spill far beyond the borders of the Middle East.” The [growing disconnect]( between how Israel views the conflict and how it’s seen by the rest of the Middle East and many further afield is fanning tensions on all sides. Meta drops Meta is down about 4% in US pre-market trading after saying it’s at the whim of an uncertain economic environment. That’s dragging Nasdaq index futures lower and the [bearish mood]( is carrying over to other markets in Asia and Europe. The dollar and gold are up, while oil has settled after a volatile Wednesday. Punters betting on a Bitcoin ETF may face a [reality check]( in markets if people start selling the news. Coming up… Intel and Amazon are due to report earnings. As well as the US GDP report, we’ll get the latest prints on the Federal Reserve’s preferred underlying inflation metric, consumer spending, wholesale inventories, durable goods and initial jobless claims. Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank is set to announce its interest rate decision, [widely expected to be its first hold in more than a year](, with President Christine Lagarde holding a news conference from where policy makers are meeting in Athens. What we’ve been reading This is what’s caught our eye over the past 24 hours. - Big Tech earnings [keep disappointing](, wiping $200 billion off stocks. - The US and China are quietly fostering [friendlier ties](. - Maine police pursue a suspect after [16 reported dead](in shootings. - Taylor Swift helps drive up credit card fees charged by[a Singapore bank](. - German carmakers are facing tougher times as [pricing gets competitive](. - The problems in an increasingly sexless, [childless Hong Kong](. - [Bloomberg Originals]( has a new [documentary]( on SBF. And finally, here's what Joe’s interested in this morning A lot of the attention today will be on GDP, which is expected to show 4.5% growth for Q4, [thanks to a robust US consumer](. Despite regular predictions of the consumer "rolling over" in some way or another, evidence for this is pretty scarce. For the most part, there's not much evidence of households slowing down. Despite dismal sentiment readings, high inflation, high interest rates, and all that, for the most part the labor market has remained surprisingly robust, and that means resilient incomes and resilient consumption. So on that note, today at the same time as GDP comes out we get this week's weekly Initial Jobless Claims number, which has been rock solid lately. A chart I like to look at from time to time is the 52-week moving average of the non-seasonally adjusted claims number. The white line here is the weekly number. The magenta line is the 52 week moving average. You really can't see it in the chart, but starting in the spring there was an ever so gradual rise in the trend. It's literally imperceptible visually, so you just have to trust me. That being said, the line has actually stopped rising over the last three weeks, with the 52-week moving average registering 222.8K since late September. Anyway, economists are forecasting a seasonally adjusted 207K reading, slightly up from 198K last week. We'll see how rock solid things remain on the labor front. Follow Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal on Twitter [@TheStalwart]( Like Bloomberg's Five Things? [Subscribe for unlimited access]( to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Five Things to Start Your Day: Americas Edition newsletter. 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