A decisive winter war

The Kremlin’s strategy is to wait for war fatigue among supporters of Ukraine [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up [here](. Ukraine and Russia are girding for a winter of intense fighting, keenly aware that progress in the war may be of critical importance to ultimate victory. With global attention focused on the deepening Israel-Hamas war, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said his forces needed to move “forward every day” to help retain international support to defeat Russia’s invasion. The same Middle East [crisis is encouraging]( Russian President Vladimir Putin to dig in for the long haul. With the US and Europe distracted by events in Israel and Gaza, the Kremlin’s strategy is to wait for war fatigue to erode military support for Ukraine and allow Putin to hold on to territory his forces have seized. Each leader faces serious risks. Putin approaches presidential elections in March with most Russians feeling poorer in his heavily-sanctioned economy. What was supposed to be a quick victory has become a grinding war that shattered the Russian army’s invincible reputation. While the result isn’t in doubt in the carefully-controlled vote, a major battlefield reverse for Putin would only intensify perceptions the invasion was a catastrophic mistake. After Ukraine’s much-vaunted counteroffensive backed by billions in weapons from the US and its allies produced only modest gains in the summer, Zelenskiy’s under pressure to show Russia can be driven out. That requires his military to continue punching holes in entrenched Russian defenses even as weather conditions deteriorate. It’s all playing out against a backdrop of economic pain in Europe that [raises questions over more aid]( for Ukraine. Above all is the shadow of next year’s US presidential election, with continued support for Kyiv far less certain among Republican challengers to Joe Biden. Zelenskiy and Putin know US support for Ukraine is potentially decisive. Both are betting on a second winter of war to make their case with American voters and ensure their political survival at home. A soldier in the frontline city of Avdiivka, Ukraine, on Oct. 17. Photographer: Ozge Elif Kizil/Anadolu/Getty Images Global Must Reads Israel kept up airstrikes on Gaza and [appeared to hold off on a ground invasion]( as diplomatic efforts continue to secure the release of more hostages. Biden talked with leaders from Canada, France, Germany, Italy and the UK about how to keep the war from spreading, while European Union foreign ministers will discuss a United Nations call for a humanitarian pause at a meeting in Luxembourg today. Palestinians inspect the damage yesterday after overnight Israeli strikes on Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip. Photographer: Said Khatib/AFP/Getty Images Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s hopes of focusing the Middle East on economic development rather than old feuds is in tatters. As the world’s top executives are expected to flock to Riyadh for the latest edition of the Future Investment Initiative, the war between Israel and Hamas is [bringing the region’s political fissures]( back to the forefront of everyone’s mind. Argentina will hold a presidential runoff next month after Economy Minister Sergio Massa placed first in yesterday’s vote ahead of libertarian Javier Milei. The election will be a contest between two candidates who hold [diametrically opposed views](. Read our [main takeaways]( from the ballot. Foreign confidence in China’s economy is under pressure after the authorities carried out [a series of arrests and announced an investigation]( into Foxconn Technology Group. State media said regulators are conducting tax audits and reviewing land use by the Taiwanese iPhone maker, while an executive and two former employees of WPP, one of the world’s biggest advertising companies, have been arrested. The right-wing Swiss People’s Party scored one of its best results in national elections, capitalizing [on public concerns over immigration](. The most popular party for two decades, the SVP wants to limit the nation’s population, reinforce its neutrality — despite calls for a strong response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — and cap the costs of the switch to sustainable energy. Tensions over the South China Sea escalated today with China filing a diplomatic complaint, the Philippines summoning Beijing’s ambassador, and President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. ordering a probe a day after [vessels from both nations collided]( in the disputed waters. María Corina Machado took a commanding lead in an early count of yesterday’s opposition primary in Venezuela, putting her [in position to challenge]( President Nicolás Maduro. South Korea is looking to African countries to secure graphite as China tightens its [export controls over the key material]( used in electric-vehicle batteries. Washington Dispatch House Republicans plan to hold a forum today for the nine candidates who wish to succeed Speaker Kevin McCarthy, nearly three weeks after his ouster immobilized the chamber. The shambolic struggle to select a new speaker has provided plenty of material for satirists and comedians — including the writers of the weekend’s “Saturday Night Live” — and seems almost like something out of “Of Thee I Sing,” the 1931 hit musical about the follies of Washington. That show centers around a feckless president, John P. Wintergreen, who campaigned on love and gets impeached for breach of promise. George and Ira Gershwin and the other authors wanted it to be funny, but they didn’t ignore the Depression or the many foibles of politicians. As both Republican and Democratic lawmakers have pointed out, there’s a lot of unfunny business that the House must address — assistance for Israel and Ukraine and government funding that will run out on Nov. 17. One person to watch today: Senator Robert Menendez, a New Jersey Democrat, is scheduled to be arraigned on charges he conspired to act as a foreign agent of Egypt. [Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter]( for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 5pm ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day Applying a 2% tax rate to the wealth of the world’s 2,750 billionaires could raise some $250 billion a year, according to a study published by the independent network of academics based at the Paris School of Economics. “Glaring tax disparity undermines [the proper functioning of our democracy](; it deepens inequality, weakens trust in our institutions, and erodes the social contract,” economist Joseph Stiglitz said in a forward to the report. And Finally Economic inequality between men and women [is costing the Australian economy]( $80 billion a year, a government taskforce said in a report today. It showed that women who have at least one child earn $1.3 million less over their lifetime than male counterparts and recommended doubling state-funded paid parental leave to 52 weeks and encouraging men to use the system. “Gender equality is not just about women, it’s about creating communities where everyone is equal, everyone can prosper,” said taskforce chair Sam Mostyn. A rally on International Women’s Day in Melbourne on March 8, 2019. Photographer: Carla Gottgens/Bloomberg Thanks to the 50 people who answered the Friday quiz and congratulations to Jim McIrvin for being the first to name India as the country whose Supreme Court refused to rule last week on legalizing same-sex marriage. 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