Food is a hot political issue

Food is playing a greater role in politics across the world [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up [here](. Food has long been a political issue, hunger a revolutionary force. In India, the cost of onions has undermined governments over the decades. Soaring prices of bread and other staples helped spur the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings in the Middle East, a region now in turmoil with Israel likely preparing a ground war in Gaza as it responds to an attack by Hamas. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine upended supply chains as the world found out the country was one of its biggest exporters of everything from grain to sunflower oil. That stoked spiraling global food inflation, adding to strains in countries across Africa particularly. [Call it the politics of the dinner table](, which is now also playing out in a series of key elections around the world. In New Zealand, which goes to the polls tomorrow, farmers have protested against plans to tax greenhouse gas emissions from cows, prompting the government to delay the policy. Poland votes the next day amid a feud with Ukraine. The nationalist Law and Justice party is seeking a third straight term and has tried to shore up its core agricultural vote by extending a ban on grain imports from the country’s war-torn neighbor. The cost of farming is also playing out in campaigns in Argentina and the Netherlands, both due to hold elections in coming weeks. Yet it’s Egypt that suddenly looks more vulnerable. The country is one of the world’s biggest wheat importers, a dependence that’s keeping inflation high during its worst economic crisis in years. That’s a challenge for President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi as he seeks another term in December. All world leaders know food security is fundamental to their political survival. Amid growing global upheaval, though, many are finding it much harder to guarantee.  — [Rodney Jefferson]( A customer pays for bread in Cairo. Photographer: Roger Anis/Getty Images Global Must Reads The United Nations described Israel’s order for the evacuation of 1.1 million people living in northern Gaza within the next 24 hours as “impossible” and [appealed for a reversal]( ahead of what increasingly looks like an imminent ground invasion. Iran warned that a [new front could be opened]( if Israel’s blockade of Gaza and “war crimes” there continue. The Israel-Hamas war has the potential [to disrupt the world economy]( and even tip it into recession if more countries are drawn in. Bloomberg Economics examined the likely impact on global growth and inflation under three scenarios — ranging from a conflict limited to Gaza to a direct confrontation between Israel and Iran. Republican divisions in the US House prompted Steve Scalise to abandon his campaign to become the speaker, prolonging the chamber’s inability to address an approaching fiscal deadline and respond to the Israel-Hamas war. Republicans, [riven by disputes]( over issues like immigration, Ukraine assistance and a potential government shutdown, plan to meet again today to discuss their next steps. North Korea said it’s ready to use its [most powerful weapons]( in a strike after the US Navy’s Ronald Reagan aircraft group started a five-day port call in South Korea this week. It’s the first visit of its kind in about a year, and the last time it happened Pyongyang responded by test-firing volleys of ballistic missiles. Australian voters are poised to reject a proposal tomorrow to establish an Indigenous advisory body to Parliament at a national referendum, [showing the challenge the country faces]( in reconciling with its First Peoples. It also drains some of the political capital Prime Minister Anthony Albanese built up after he returned the Labor party to power in May 2022 following nine years in opposition. Poland’s general election on Sunday will determine the fate of its [eight-year populist drift away]( from the European Union mainstream. Serbia is ready to return to EU-brokered negotiations with Kosovo and is [urging the Serb minority]( in the Balkan neighbor to take part in local elections to help defuse tensions after a recent gun battle. New Zealanders are voting with concerns [about the soaring cost of living]( dominating the campaign and polls showing the main opposition National Party likely the best placed to form a center-right government. Washington Dispatch House Republicans may be edging closer to forging some sort of [deal on the speaker]( with the Democrats, an option that had been curtly dismissed by Kevin McCarthy before he was ousted from the post. Even before Scalise’s withdrawal, both Mike Rogers, the chairman of the Armed Services Committee, and Foreign Affairs Chairman Michael McCaul said Republicans were unable to elect a speaker on their own even as the assault on Israel has led to a clamor for Congress to act. Rogers suggested a possible deal across the aisle and called on the Democratic leader, Hakeem Jeffries, to spell out what he wanted in return. Jeffries told PBS NewsHour last night that “the details need to be negotiated in a good-faith fashion, and we are ready, willing and able to do just that.” He did not, however, provide specific requests. One person to watch today: President Joe Biden will travel to Philadelphia to deliver a speech about the economy. [Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter]( for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 5pm ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day Source: Bloomberg Celeste Moyanga, who sells barbecued chicken feet from her stall on a sidewalk in Johannesburg, has resorted to buying one or two onions at a time from other street traders as prices of fresh produce skyrocket. The cost of [onions has soared 63%]( over the past year, the biggest increase of any single ingredient in Bloomberg’s Shisa Nyama Index, which tracks key ingredients in a traditional barbecue in South African townships. And Finally Mainland Chinese visitors to Hong Kong used to flaunt Hermes handbags in shopping malls for social media photos. These days, the most popular kind of post is of a tourist holding a McDonald’s takeout bag on a quiet street in the city’s Mid-Levels district named MacDonnell Road. The Asian financial hub is welcoming [a new kind of post-pandemic Chinese tourist](, who instead of splurging on luxury items opts for more low-key activities. Tourists at the Hong Kong Palace Museum on Oct. 1. Photographer: Lam Yik/Bloomberg Pop quiz (no cheating!) In which country did a former world footballer of the year seek reelection as president? Send your answers to balancepower@bloomberg.net. More from Bloomberg - Listen to [The Big Take podcast]( on why Poland’s parliamentary elections will determine the nation’s social and political standing in Europe. Listen also on [Apple]( and [Spotify]( - [Bloomberg Opinion]( for a roundup of our most vital opinions on business, politics, economics, tech and more - [Next Africa](, a twice-weekly newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it’s headed - [Economics Daily]( for what the changing landscape means for policy makers, investors and you - [Eastern Europe Edition]( for insights from our reporters into what's shaping economics and investments from the Baltic Sea to the Balkans - Explore more newsletters at [Bloomberg.com](. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? 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