Repeating the cycle of violence

The specter of an endless cycle of violence [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up [here](. As Israel reels from a shock Hamas assault that claimed 1,200 lives, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has vowed to wipe the Palestinian militant group “off the face of the Earth.” A wartime cabinet has been formed to lead the Jewish state through a widely expected ground invasion of the Gaza Strip, and [uproot Hamas]( from the isolated Palestinian enclave it’s ruled for 16 years. Already, Israel has unleashed thousands of airstrikes and imposed a siege, cutting off power and water. Public pressure to avenge slain Israelis, many of them unsuspecting civilians including children and elderly people snatched from their homes, as well as partygoers ambushed at a music festival, is immense. The carnage has Israelis thinking primarily about how to restore their sense of safety. Officials say they’ve moved from a policy of managing Hamas to destroying the group, which is designated a terrorist organization by the US and European Union, so it can never attack Israel again. Yet, history suggests that approach will not bring peace. Hamas didn’t exist when Israel invaded Lebanon in 1982 to expel the Palestine Liberation Organization and its late leader Yasser Arafat, who’d used the country as a springboard for cross-border operations. The PLO left but from that war was born the Lebanese militant group now known as Hezbollah. Hamas itself was founded in 1987, around the start of the first Palestinian intifada, or uprising, against Israeli occupation. Gaza is among the most densely populated places in the world, with some 2 million people living in a 140-square-mile strip. Egypt and Israel control its borders. Whether or not they support Hamas, Gazans have nowhere to go. Repeated aerial wars on Gaza have killed thousands over the years but failed to crush Hamas or the Palestinian quest for statehood. A ground invasion, with Israeli soldiers going house to house on Hamas’s home turf, risks turning into a bloody quagmire. It’s a tragic cycle familiar to Middle East observers. “If they just go in and kill the Hamas operatives of today,” said Seth Moulton, a US Congressman who served four tours as a US Marine in Iraq, “you could well have twice as many tomorrow.”  — [Lin Noueihed]( The aftermath of Israeli air strikes in Gaza City yesterday. Photographer: Yahya Hassouna/Getty Images Global Must Reads NATO defense ministers will discuss Ukraine at a meeting today in Brussels, a day after President Volodymyr Zelenskiy made an urgent [appeal]( to them for air defenses as Kyiv moves to extend its counteroffensive into the winter. Overnight, air defenses shot down 28 out of 33 Russian drones, the Ukrainian air force command said. China and India agreed to maintain peace along their common border in the 20th round of talks between the neighbors on the worst dispute over the issue in two decades. Relations between the [nuclear-armed countries have soured]( since at least 20 Indian and an unknown number of Chinese soldiers were killed in a skirmish in June 2020 along the 3,488-kilometer (2,167-mile) disputed Himalayan border. The EU’s top diplomat starts a three-day visit to China with a delicate task: [pushing back against Chinese subsidies]( that the bloc says disadvantage European companies, while trying to prevent the $900 billion relationship from imploding into a trade war. The deadly assaults on Israel by Hamas are also likely to cast a long shadow on talks. Discord in the Republican Party means Steve Scalise’s bid to become US House speaker [could drag out for weeks](, delaying action on fiscal deadlines and new aid for Israel. Scalise can’t afford to lose more than four GOP votes to win against Democrats united in support of their party leader, Hakeem Jeffries. Google says it has worked hard to disrupt the ability of President Vladimir Putin’s government to use its services to spread disinformation since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But a widely used Android service called Discover continues [to serve up misleading propaganda]( to Russian audiences. The Russian ruble headed for its best day in a month after the government imposed some capital controls as it seeks to [reverse the third-biggest currency depreciation]( in emerging markets this year. Japan’s government will ask a court to order the disbandment of [the fringe religious group]( whose activities were cited as motivating the assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Argentine President Alberto Fernandez filed a legal complaint against election frontrunner Javier Milei after the outsider [encouraged citizens to stop saving in pesos](, heating up the presidential race with just 10 days to the key vote. Washington Dispatch Secretary of State Antony Blinken landed in Israel today as the Joe Biden administration has pledged unyielding commitment to the country in a time of crisis. He plans to meet with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other top Israeli officials. “We’ve seen the almost indescribable acts committed by Hamas against Israeli men, women, and children,” he told reporters before his departure. “Every day we’re learning more, and it is simply heartbreaking. Not since ISIS have we seen this kind of depravity, and we will continue to stand very resolutely against it.” Blinken has [a delicate mission](: expressing support for Israel’s right to defend itself even as concerns rise about civilian casualties in the Gaza Strip as well as the fate of hostages — including a number of Americans. Before leaving the US, the secretary said that in “contrast to Hamas,” Israel, America and other democracies do everything they can to avoid harming civilians because of “our respect for international law.” Things to watch today: Consumer price index data for September will be released, as will US initial jobless claims figures. [Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter]( for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 5pm ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day Despite record global temperatures, catastrophic flooding and searing wildfires this year, nearly half of young participants in a major global survey across 39 countries [believe they will personally avoid]( a climate disaster during their lifetime, according to Seiko Epson’s third annual Climate Reality Barometer report. And Finally Putin overplayed his hand by trying to use Gazprom to bring Europe to its knees over Russia’s war in Ukraine. Now his efforts to bolster the state-controlled gas giant are at [the mercy]( of China and the limited options will be evident when he meets President Xi Jinping in Beijing next week. Even in the Kremlin’s best-case scenario, the Asian superpower would only account for about two-thirds of the volumes that once flowed to Europe, and at lower prices. A natural gas pipeline facility in Heihe, Heilongjiang province, China. Source: Bloomberg More from Bloomberg - MLIV Pulse survey. Are sanctions posing risks to global growth? Share your views [here](. - to our [X Space discussion]( on Hamas’s attack on Israel and concerns about the possibility of an escalating conflict across the region - [Bloomberg Opinion]( for a roundup of our most vital opinions on business, politics, economics, tech and more - [Economics Daily]( for what the changing landscape means for policy makers, investors and you - [Green Daily]( for the latest in climate news, zero-emission tech and green finance - Explore more newsletters at [Bloomberg.com](. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Balance of Power newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox. [Unsubscribe]( [Bloomberg.com]( [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington Avenue, New York, NY 10022 [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( [Ad Choices](