Israel-Hamas war: the risks for Biden

War in the Middle East adds to Biden’s reelection challenges [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up [here](. Hamas’s attack on Israel is complicating an already treacherous geopolitical outlook for President Joe Biden as he ramps up his campaign for reelection next year. The prospect of months of bloody battle is certain to keep in focus the difficult trade-offs and unfulfilled ambitions Biden faces in the Middle East — notably Saudi-Israeli normalization — at a time when he would prefer to highlight economic victories, infrastructure building and Republican disarray. Last month’s deal to secure the release of American detainees in Iran in exchange for $6 billion in revenue for Tehran — a long-time supporter of militant groups waging war against Israel — has become fodder for critics. While US officials have said they have seen no evidence of Iranian involvement in the Hamas attack, the argument that providing money for Iran’s social services frees up other funding for militant groups is difficult to counter. Despite [Biden’s full-throated support for Israel](, in the recent past his administration kept Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who enjoyed a cozy relationship with former President Donald Trump, at arm’s length. The decision reflected both distaste for his government — the most right-wing in Israel’s history — and the complex nature of Biden’s base, which includes both a large bloc of urban Jewish voters as well as young liberals sympathetic to the plight of Palestinians. Since the crisis, Biden has called Netanyahu at least three times to coordinate a response and sent a six-vessel aircraft carrier strike group to the eastern Mediterranean. Then there is the Ukraine factor and the resistance by conservative Republicans to approve more military aid to Kyiv to thwart Russia’s invasion. Many lawmakers hope they’ll be able to push through a spending package that includes both countries, but others have suggested diverting Ukraine funding to Israel. The risk for Biden is that world events largely beyond his control may distract from his domestic achievements, and upend his campaign for another term in the White House. — [Justin Sink]( CLICK TO WATCH: “We stand with Israel,” Biden says during remarks at the White House condemning the Hamas attack against Israel. Photographer: Ting Shen/Bloomberg Global Must Reads Israeli troops are massing for what’s widely seen as an inevitable ground invasion of the Gaza Strip in response to Hamas’s attack. But such an operation will be complicated by the enclave’s dense population, complex network of subterranean tunnels, and [the danger to scores of hostages]( being held by Palestinian militant groups. The Iran-backed Hezbollah group in Lebanon said it [hit an Israeli military post]( with guided missiles. The heavily bombarded city center of Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip yesterday. Photographer: Said Khatib/AFP/Getty Images Russia is set to benefit from the Israel-Hamas conflict, as Israel’s requests for US military aid risk diverting weapons and focus from Ukraine and rising oil prices bolster Moscow’s economy. While the US and NATO allies have dismissed concerns about their ability to continue supporting Ukraine, there’s a [clear understanding]( in the Kremlin that the war between Israel and Hamas will work to Russia’s favor, sources say. China’s Middle East special envoy called for humanitarian support for the Palestinian people in his first [public response]( to Hamas’s attack on Israel — an assault that’s testing Beijing’s ambitions to play peacemaker in the region. Zhai Jun said China’s ready to coordinate with Egypt to promote an immediate cease-fire in a phone call with an Egyptian Foreign Ministry official, according to a statement from Beijing. Poland, the largest eastern European Union member, faces arguably its most vicious and divisive election since the end of communism. Sunday’s vote will decide not just if Poland diverges further from western Europe socially and politically, but will indicate [whether the continent can stand united]( in its support of Ukraine amid growing signs of war fatigue among electorates. Claudia Sheinbaum’s work as a scientist and former mayor of Mexico City make her look like a climate president in the making. A top contender to become the nation’s next leader, she’s also a protégé of the incumbent, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who’s a strong backer of fossil fuels. The question is whether she will [fight to cut greenhouse gas emissions]( if she wins the election in June. Slovakia’s Robert Fico won the backing of two allied parties, putting the former prime minister who campaigned [to end military aid to Ukraine]( on course to return to power. An Indian crime investigating agency raided the office of an online news portal and the home of its founder, sources say, [as a crackdown intensifies]( against a media outlet critical of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The US formally designated Niger’s military uprising a coup, a move that will [halt counter-terrorism cooperation]( and $500 million in aid while still keeping its largest military presence in Africa outside of Djibouti. Washington Dispatch Representative Patrick McHenry, a North Carolina Republican, seemed content that his role as House speaker pro tem, which began after last week’s ouster of Kevin McCarthy, would be brief. He stood aside as better known congressmen, Jim Jordan and Steve Scalise, declared their candidacies for the chamber’s top post. Yet with neither man so far able [to secure enough support]( and a possible vote taking place today, eyes have turned to McHenry, the chairman of the Financial Services Committee. No House business can be done without a speaker in place, and with assistance to Israel, Ukraine and the threat of a government shutdown demanding their attention, some lawmakers have suggested the unprecedented step of granting McHenry special powers. Known for his bow ties and professorial glasses, McHenry has championed small-town values and small businesses across his political career, which began in the North Carolina House. In the federal chamber, he has tried to forge consensus but generated distrust among some hardline conservatives for his role in authoring the debt-ceiling deal between McCarthy and Biden. His apparent preference to keep a relatively quiet profile may collide with the necessity of putting the House back in motion. One thing to watch today: The Mortgage Bankers Association releases data on applications. [Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter]( for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 5pm ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day President Vladimir Putin is to attend China’s third Belt and Road Forum on Oct. 17-18. It would be the Russian leader’s first foreign trip outside the former Soviet states [since a warrant for his arrest]( on alleged war crimes committed in Ukraine was issued by the International Criminal Court. And Finally Afghanistan’s national [cricket team]( is attempting to regain its footing during the men’s World Cup after finding a new home in Dubai, thanks to financial backing from the sport’s governing body. While cricket remains Afghanistan’s second-most popular game, professional players and administrators largely fled the country after the Taliban takeover two years ago. The team faces host nation India today in the tournament after being beaten by Bangladesh in its opening match. Afghanistan’s Ibrahim Zadran during the match against Bangladesh on Oct. 7. Photographer: Arun Sankar/AFP/Getty Images More from Bloomberg - Listen to [The Big Take podcast]( and our [X Space discussion]( on the attack on Israel by Hamas and concerns about the possibility of an escalating conflict across the region - [Cyber Bulletin]( for coverage of the shadow world of hackers and cyber-espionage - [Bloomberg Opinion]( for a roundup of our most vital opinions on business, politics, economics, tech and more - [Economics Daily]( for what the changing landscape means for policy makers, investors and you - Explore more newsletters at [Bloomberg.com](. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Balance of Power newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox. 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