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Good morning. The conflict in Israel enters a fourth day, Treasury yields slide and the IMF sees inflation stickiness. Here’s what’s moving [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Good morning. The conflict in Israel enters a fourth day, Treasury yields slide and the IMF sees inflation stickiness. Here’s what’s moving markets. — [Sam Unsted]( Israel conflict The conflict between Israel and militant group Hamas [has entered a fourth day](, with at least 1,500 deaths so far. Israel struck the Gaza Strip overnight and is building a base to accommodate thousands of soldiers to prepare for the next phase of its response. Hamas got around Israel’s sophisticated surveillance defense systems by going [“very old school”]( — never talking about it electronically — and has [threatened to kill hostages]( as rhetoric from both sides ramps up further. Yields slide US Treasury yields [dropped by the most since March]( on a combination of dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials and on safe-haven demand amid the Israel conflict. The moves were made more pronounced by cash Treasuries having been closed on Monday. The Fed’s Philip Jefferson and Lorie Logan both coalesced around the idea that tighter conditions caused by the jump in Treasury yields [may act as a substitute for further rate hikes](. Inflation warning The International Monetary Fund [raised its global inflation forecast]( for 2024 and called on central banks to keep policy tight until there is a sustainable cool down in price pressures. It raised its projection for the pace of consumer price inflation to 5.8% for next year, up from 5.2% three months ago. In the majority of countries, the IMF anticipates that inflation will remain above central bank targets until 2025. Stocks rise US stock futures are slightly higher following a bounce in Europe and in Asia. Oil has [held the majority]( of the gains from the prior session, albeit it’s little changed on the day. The dollar is flat. China is said to be weighing [new stimulus measures]( and a higher deficit to help meet its growth target. Coming Up… There is a slew of Fed speakers on the slate for Tuesday, including Raphael Bostic, Neel Kashkari, Christopher Waller and Mary Daly. PepsiCo will publish earnings before the market open in New York. Would a 10% tariff on all US imports, as floated by Donald Trump, be good or bad for US stocks? Is the US protecting or hurting its electric-vehicle industry with its trade barriers? Who has been the winner of the US-China trade war so far? Share your views in the latest [MLIV Pulse survey](. What We’ve Been Reading This is what’s caught our eye over the past 24 hours. - US police [shoot dead driver]( in an incident at a Chinese consulate. - Walk out by [General Motors workers]( in Canada. - Biden interviewed in [classified documents probe](. - A $1 billion plan to save crypto [quietly fizzles out](. - [Catastrophe bonds]( defy the global selloff. - Country Garden ramps up warnings [it is set to default](. - Singapore real estate [at risk from rising seas](. And finally, here's what Joe’s interested in this morning Two charts stand out to me right now, in the wake of this weekend's attack on Israel. The first is rates. One could have easily imagined some kind of scenario, where the attack was perceived initially inflationary, both due to higher oil prices, as well as more defense spending, pushing yields even higher. And yet the first move is for noticeably lower yields. The yield on the 10-year is actually down 23 basis points from its Friday peak, immediately after the strong payrolls report. Meanwhile, there's been a ton of attention paid to oil. And crude did see a bounce in the immediate wake of the attack. But most people in the US experience oil through gasoline prices, and there things remain depressed. Gasoline futures are up a bit in the last couple of days, but remain very depressed, thanks to the collapse in refiner margins, canceling out the increase in crude. Now granted, it's hard to read much significance to a day's worth of trading, and make some grand connection to geopolitical developments. But perhaps it speaks to how extreme the sentiment had been getting last week -- particularly on the rate side -- that the immediate move is lower, and for Treasuries to reclaim some of their flight-to-safety premium. Follow Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal on Twitter [@TheStalwart]( Like Bloomberg's Five Things? [Subscribe for unlimited access]( to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Five Things to Start Your Day: Americas Edition newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox. 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