Europe’s fractures test Germany

The state of Europe since Germany’s reunification 33 years ago [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up [here](. Berlin is preparing for a long weekend as the anniversary of German unity approaches. It’s a fitting moment to reflect on the state of Europe 33 years after East and West Germany were reunited. For all the concerns after the Berlin Wall fell in 1989 — most notably in Poland and across eastern Europe — that a reconstituted Germany might again flex its muscles in an echo of its earlier belligerence, that has thankfully not come to pass. Indeed, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government had to jettison its pacifist policies to aid Ukraine militarily after Russia’s invasion. Today it’s Italy, Poland and Hungary where [the nationalist, populist right]( has taken root, shifting the political landscape in a potential harbinger of what’s to come at European Union elections next year. Yet even under Social Democrat Scholz, Germany is far from immune. There’s a new coarseness to politics as society goes the way of the polarized US — just look at the tone of yesterday’s Republican debate. The far-right Alternative for Germany party is polling second nationally. In Bavaria, state elections on Oct. 8 have been overshadowed by a scandal over anti-Semitism. Concentration camp memorial sites report a rise in right-wing extremist threats. Germany prides itself on its Errinerungskultur — a state-backed culture of memory that strives to illuminate and learn from its violent past. That includes the events of 100 years ago, when Weimar Germany suffered hyperinflation and unrest leading up to the Beer Hall Putsch of November 1923 which brought Adolf Hitler to prominence. There will be no official observation of this anniversary. But it’s worth remembering all the same as Europe looks to a harsher, more divisive political future. —[Alan Crawford]( Basement of a German bank during the economic crisis in 1923. Photographer: Albert Harlingue/Roger Viollet/Getty Images Global Must Reads Hopes for averting a US government shutdown starting this weekend are fading [as disarray among Republicans]( weakens House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s ability to win concessions from the Joe Biden administration. Failure to reach a deal would have [a cascading economic effect](, deepening over time as millions of workers and private contractors go unpaid and consumer uncertainty grows. None of the seven contenders for the Republican presidential nomination delivered a knockout blow yesterday even as they [spent two hours hammering each other](, Biden and the absent frontrunner, Donald Trump. The debate often felt close to chaos: “Every time I hear you I feel a little bit dumber from what you say,” former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley told entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy. Who blew up the Nord Stream II pipeline a year ago? The fact that no one has been formally accused highlights the challenges governments face in attributing such attacks. Now NATO is racing to develop technologies that would allow real-time [detection of suspicious activity]( near critical underwater infrastructure. The US could face some tough choices in the South China Sea as Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. steps up the fight to counter China’s incursions more directly. This week he ordered a “special operation” [to remove a barrier China installed]( at the entrance of the Scarborough Shoal, a chain of reefs and rocks both sides claim. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s efforts to protect tribal lands has been dealt a potentially major blow with the Senate approving legislation to [limit the creation of new Indigenous territories](, overriding a recent Supreme Court ruling. Demonstrators outside the Supreme Court in Brasilia on Aug. 30. Photographer: Ton Molina/Bloomberg Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu missed a key meeting attended by President Xi Jinping, reinforcing reports he’s [being investigated for corruption]( and has been removed from his role. An unscheduled Russian military VIP plane touched down in Pyongyang this week, days after North Korean leader Kim Jong Un made a [rare trip to his neighbor]( for talks the US said probably focused on arms transfers. The military junta in Burkina Faso said it [thwarted an attempted coup]( this week, the latest sign of instability in the West African nation battling an Islamist insurgency under a fragile transitional government. Washington Dispatch Biden will deliver a speech today in Tempe, Arizona, that’s intended to present his presidency as an affirmation of democratic values and a bulwark against Trump and his allies. Biden will speak a day after the second Republican presidential debate and in a state crucial to both parties in the 2024 election. His address will also pay tribute to late Senator John McCain, a conservative Republican who represented Arizona for decades and was his party’s presidential nominee in 2008. Biden often highlights his affection for McCain and other Republicans, drawing a contrast with the unyielding partisan lines of the present. While the cordialities and kinships of an earlier Washington era can be exaggerated, they sometimes did make the business of governing smoother. And the angry turmoil in the US House that is likely to lead to a government shutdown this weekend can make nostalgia all the more attractive. One thing to watch today: The House Committee on Oversight and Accountability holds its first hearing on the Biden impeachment inquiry. [Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter]( for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 5pm ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day Russia’s war-related industries are booming with [military production expanding at a double-digit pace]( as the Kremlin continues to press its invasion of Ukraine. Output is expected to increase by almost a third this year, according to government forecasts for the next three years. And Finally Google maintains one of the world’s most comprehensive repositories of location information — something police departments across the US are increasingly taking advantage of. As Julia Love and Davey Alba write, investigators can use [warrants to obtain location and search data]( from Google, such as who was in a given area at a given time, even for people who had nothing to do with the crime. And that’s what worries privacy advocates. Photographer: Illustration: Jordan Speer for Bloomberg Businessweek More from Bloomberg - [Brussels Edition]( for a daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the EU - [Sound On]( for Bloomberg Washington Correspondent Joe Mathieu’s insight and analysis from the White House and Capitol Hill - [Economics Daily]( for what the changing landscape means for policy makers, investors and you - [Next Africa](, a twice-weekly newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it’s headed - [Green Daily]( for the latest in climate news, zero-emission tech and green finance Explore more newsletters at [Bloomberg.com](. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Balance of Power newsletter. 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