5 Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day

Good morning. A deal to avert a shutdown may be near, more rate hikes could be needed and China’s troubled property market. Here’s what’s mo [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Good morning. A deal to avert a shutdown may be near, more rate hikes could be needed and China’s troubled property market. Here’s what’s moving markets. Shutdown talks Senate Republicans and Democrats are closing in on a deal for a [short-term spending measure]( designed to avert a government shutdown, according to a person familiar with the talks. The legislation would extend funding for four to six weeks, a shorter timeframe than Democrats had pushed for. The [dollar is emerging]( as the best haven from those shutdown risks. More hikes Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said he expects the US central bank [will need to raise interest rates one more time]( this year and keep policy tighter for longer if the economy is stronger than expected. Elsewhere, JPMorgan Chase Chief Executive Jamie Dimon said the world [may not be prepared]( for a worst-case scenario of US interest rates going to 7% along with stagflation. China property The new turmoil engulfing Chinese property developers like Evergrande [could jeopardize the latest efforts]( by authorities in the country to end the housing crisis. Evergrande’s mainland unit [failed to repay an onshore bond]( on Monday, adding a new layer of uncertainty to its outlook. Former executives at the company have also been detained, while there are issues facing other developers like China Oceanwide and Country Garden too. Futures down S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are pointing lower heading into today’s session, tracking declines earlier in Asia and across most of Europe, with the exception of a gain in the UK’s FTSE 100. Treasury yields are slightly lower and the dollar is mostly gaining against G-10 currencies. Coming Up… New homes sales, Conference Board consumer confidence data and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index are all on the slate for Tuesday. The Fed’s Michelle Bowman is due to speak at a FedCommunities event later on rental housing affordability. Membership wholesale retailer Costco will report after the market close on Tuesday. Is your commute longer than before the pandemic? Have you changed the way you are getting to and from the office? Would you be coming in to the office more often if there were better public transit options available? Do you think the US office market will rebound without a severe crash? Let us know, fill out a quick [MLIV Pulse survey](. What We’ve Been Reading This is what’s caught our eye over the past 24 hours. - Private equity’s [soaring debt pile](. - Expanding [digital nomad]( visas. - Cathie Wood favors [less “obvious” AI bets](. - [Net zero by 2050]( still remains possible. - Apple’s [finewoven fabric]( misfire. - Hedge funds [ramp up bets]( against stocks. - Transparency about [racial diversity](. And finally, here's what Joe’s interested in this morning The big markets story is obviously the selloff in anything that has an interest rate attached to it. Every day it seems (except this morning) there's another headline about rates hitting their highest level since 2007, or mortgage rates hitting their highest in over 20 years. Anxiety about the US fiscal position is at its loudest in a long time, economists fret over the rising share of GDP that will be paid out in terms of interest going forward. Interestingly, as Garfield Reynolds notes, [the US dollar has been a real winner](. After all, the US right now is a high-yielding country and also a high-growth country. That's not a terrible combo, really. Measuring currency performance is always a little fraught, because if you're comparing two of them, you can't be sure whether you're really measuring the numerator or denominator. Gold is nice cause it's a safe-haven, and kind of currency-like at times, but obviously distinct. And what's interesting is that at least over the last three months the Bloomberg Dollar Index has been outperforming gold, with strong relative gains over the last few weeks. On the one hand, this might not be what you'd expect if the market were rendering some big negative verdict on the health of US fiscal policy. On the other hand, given that US government bonds are currently paying a real and rising rate of turn, whereas gold literally has a negative yield thanks to carrying costs, it may make sense that the greenback is what's in demand. Follow Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal on Twitter [@TheStalwart]( Like Bloomberg's Five Things? [Subscribe for unlimited access]( to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Five Things to Start Your Day: Americas Edition newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox. 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