Underestimating Trump

The perils of underestimating Trump’s chances in 2024 [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up [here](. It was a shocker of a poll, drawing derision and defensiveness, that over the weekend showed former US President Donald Trump 10 percentage points clear of the incumbent, Joe Biden. The Washington Post, which conducted the 2024 presidential survey with ABC News, twisted itself into a pretzel trying to explain just what an outlier it was. One pollster decried it as [“ridiculous”]( and invited people to ignore it. But to do so would be a mistake. Taken together with an NBC poll, the overall picture that emerges is that there is a risk, just like there was in 2016, of underestimating Trump and his chances of prevailing in a rematch with Biden. Neither man is particularly popular. Voters are unhappy to be presented with a rerun between two seniors, but the question of age is more acute for Biden, 80, than for Trump, 77. The NBC poll shows that three-quarters of registered voters are worried Biden doesn’t have the necessary mental and physical health to serve a second term. Trump is seen cruising to the November election having crushed his rivals in a packed Republican primary race. He won’t even deign to debate them.  The most telling numbers deal with how much worse off Americans are feeling. The president can make a compelling case for his stewardship of the economy, but he doesn’t seem to be getting credit for it. Fewer than 4-in-10 voters approve of his handling of it, the NBC poll shows. Yes, it is a truth now universally acknowledged, just how unreliable and wayward polls can be, going all the way back to the UK’s 2016 vote to leave the European Union and beyond. And the NBC poll found that the four indictments are weighing heavily on Trump, too. But for Democrats, the key takeaway might be that a narrative constructed around why it has to be Biden again — because he was the one who defeated Trump in 2020 and he alone can do it again — may be fundamentally flawed. — [Flavia Krause-Jackson]( Trump and Biden during a presidential debate on Oct. 22, 2020 in Nashville, Tennessee. Photographer: Morry Gash and Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images Global Must Reads Few took Robert Fico seriously when he vowed to return after being forced out as Slovakia’s longest-serving prime minister as a result of massive 2018 protests. Now an [unlikely comeback looms]( in Sept. 30 elections amid reaction to the war in Ukraine in a country with the region’s most pro-Russian population. Fico has vowed to end military aid to Ukraine, further testing the EU’s ability to remain united against Russia. Ukraine’s military said troops made advances along the southern frontline against entrenched Russian defenses as part of its four-month-old counteroffensive. [Kyiv’s forces moved forward]( near the village of Verbove in the southern Zaporizhzhia region, as they push toward the city of Tokmak, a Russian stronghold, according to the Ukrainian General Staff. Ukrainian servicemen with a Leopard 2 tank in Zaporizhzhia on Sept. 15. Photographer: Vincenzo Circosta/Getty Images Three years ago, Greece and Turkey looked to be on the brink of war, and even this time last year Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan were trading barbs. Read how the NATO allies are now making a [historic push to reconcile](, recognizing that both sides stand to gain if they can turn the page. The UK’s main opposition Labour Party suffered a thumping defeat in 2019 under left-wing leader Jeremy Corbyn, whose shadow finance minister once brandished Mao Zedong’s Little Red Book in Parliament. Now the party of Keir Starmer is keener to emulate another former leader, Tony Blair, who secured office after [winning the confidence]( of business. A shootout in Kosovo yesterday between Serbs and police left four dead, including an ethnic Albanian officer, in the [Balkan nation’s bloodiest clash]( in almost two decades. Kosovo unilaterally declared independence from Serbia in 2008, a status that Serbia refuses to recognize. South Korea wants Chinese President Xi Jinping to visit for the first time in about a decade, seeing a trip as [turning a page in relations]( that have shifted as Seoul more closely aligns itself with the US. President Emmanuel Macron said French troops [will leave Niger by year’s end](, bowing to the demands of a junta whose coup in the former colony has upended France’s strategy in Africa. Erdogan will travel today to a part of Azerbaijan that’s cut off from the rest of the country [as he seeks to capitalize on regional turbulence]( to advance plans for a trade route through the Caucasus. Washington Dispatch While there is never a good time for a US government shutdown, the one that seems increasingly likely to begin next weekend will come at a jittery moment for the country’s economy and its politics. A significant lapse in government services and massive furloughs of federal workers would unfold as an autoworkers strike and ascending gasoline prices have inflicted economic bruises. And next month, borrowers of student loans must resume payments. At the same time, political battlelines, already fortified before what’s certain to be a tempestuous election year, make a quick resolution to the budget standoff in Congress elusive. House Republicans lash out at one another, while the party’s de facto leader, Trump, openly champions a shutdown. Democrats in the Senate and White House are eager to cast blame for a shutdown on their opponents, who control a majority in the House. It is not a season for compromise. One person to watch today: John Kerry, Biden’s climate envoy, is to address a conference on climate and ocean resilience, part of the US-Pacific Islands Forum Summit [Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter]( for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 5pm ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day The EU’s chief trade negotiator, Valdis Dombrovskis, warned Beijing today during his trip to China that the bloc [will be more forceful]( in upholding fair competition and defending its interests. And Finally Political instability, a decade of civil war, crumbling infrastructure and weak emergency systems all played a role in the tragedy that unfolded when floods [tore through eastern Libya]( in the early hours of Sept. 11. Add climate change to the mix, and the result is the deadliest and costliest storm ever recorded in the Mediterranean region. A member of the Algerian Rescue Team reacts as he assists in relief work in Libya’s eastern port city of Derna on Sept. 17. Photographer: Karim Sahib/AFP/Getty Images Thanks to the 45 people who answered the Friday quiz and congratulations to Roman Demianchuk for being the first to name the economy of Singapore as having replaced Hong Kong as the world’s freest in rankings compiled by the Fraser Institute. More from Bloomberg - [Bloomberg Opinion]( for a roundup of our most vital opinions on business, politics, economics, tech and more - [Economics Daily]( for what the changing landscape means for policy makers, investors and you - [Next Africa](, a twice-weekly newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it’s headed - [Green Daily]( for the latest in climate news, zero-emission tech and green finance Explore more newsletters at [Bloomberg.com](. 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