Bracing for Trump

US allies are taking a pragmatic stance on Trump’s possible return to power [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up [here](. The prospect of a reprise of Donald Trump’s unpredictable US presidency triggers a range of emotions, from fear in Europe to glee in Saudi Arabia. No one, though, wants to be surprised. How the rest of the world looks at it largely depends on whether, during his first stint in the White House, Trump lavished you with attention, as was the case for Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, or whether he humiliated you in public. Germany’s Angela Merkel was called a “loser.” Canada’s Justin Trudeau saw his hard-won Group of Seven communique ripped up. This time US allies are taking a pragmatic approach, in sharp contrast to 2016, when many responded with shock and dismay. Annalena Baerbock, Germany’s top diplomat, headed to Texas [to take the political temperature](. “It’s a state of extremes in a country of extremes,” is how she described the Lone Star State, with its restrictive abortion laws and barbed wire to keep migrants from crossing the border. A Green, Baerbock is a dyed-in-the-wool liberal. But her mission was to understand, rather than judge, as she got behind the bar and served beers during a visit to Back Porch BBQ. Texas is “a bellwether for America and for the future,” she said. For Vladimir Putin, a Trump comeback would be rather more complicated than the first time round when Russia launched an aggressive campaign of misinformation and fake news to damage the chances of Hillary Clinton coming to power. Back then Putin reveled in the chaos unleashed. But a lot has changed since Trump praised the Russian leader as a “genius” for the invasion of Ukraine. This week Putin said that the US would likely stay anti-Russia, even if Trump came back. For Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, a Trump presidency may be a disaster, opening up a scenario where the arms and money he relies on to keep fighting could dry up. Much remains opaque, not least whether Trump will secure the Republican Party’s nomination let alone retake the White House. But the rest of the world wants to be ready just in case he does. — [Flavia Krause-Jackson]( Baerbock during a visit to the German Air Force Training Command at Sheppard Air Force Base in Wichita Falls, Texas, on Tuesday. Photographer: Michael Kappeler/dpa/picture alliance/Getty Images Global Must Reads US President Joe Biden faced a number of political headaches this week. His son, Hunter, was [indicted on federal charges]( that he purchased a firearm without disclosing that he was unlawfully using drugs. House leader Kevin McCarthy [launched an impeachment inquiry]( into the US president. And today the United Auto Workers [started strikes]( at plants of three American carmakers that risk triggering a recession in swing states key to the election next year. Where is China’s defense minister? Li Shangfu hasn’t been seen in public for more than two weeks, with some reports suggesting that Beijing’s fourth-most senior military figure is the latest top Communist Party official [to be abruptly ousted]( from the upper echelons of President Xi Jinping’s ranks.​ [Click to Watch](: Li Shangfu. Rebecca Choong Wilkins reports on Bloomberg Television. Photographer: Alexander Nemenov/AFP/Getty Images The European Union’s next contest for a top job leading the European Investment Bank risks turning [into a showdown between Spain and Italy](, two Mediterranean powers staking rival claims to status and influence within the bloc. Top contenders in the five-way race include former Italian Finance Minister Daniele Franco, and Spanish Deputy Prime Minister Nadia Calvino. Kim toured a Russian factory that makes high-tech fighter jets. Pyongyang’s air force consists mostly of antiquated aircraft and isn’t considered [much of a threat]( to the more sophisticated military equipment in the region operated by the US, Japan and South Korea. Republican lawmakers are pressing the Biden administration [to cut off all access]( to American components for sanctioned Chinese tech giants Huawei and chipmaker SMIC, as the surprise release of an advanced smartphone raises questions over the effectiveness of US restrictions on China. Zelenskiy will meet with Biden [at the White House]( next week as the next tranche of US aid to Ukraine faces political headwinds from some Republicans. The US Senate Armed Services Committee is probing [national-security issues]( raised by Elon Musk’s decision not to extend the private Starlink satellite network to aid a Ukrainian attack on Russian warships near the Crimean coast. Pita Limjaroenrat resigned as leader of the Move Forward Party after his bid to become Thailand’s prime minister was thwarted by the royalist conservative establishment, allowing for a new chief to become the [opposition leader]( in parliament. Washington Dispatch Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis have been trying to outdo each other in expressing disdain for Washington, but they’ll be there today to appear before two conservative gatherings. The candidates for the Republican presidential nomination are both scheduled to address the Pray, Vote, Stand and the Concerned Women for America summits. Two other contenders, Mike Pence and Vivek Ramaswamy, are to speak at Pray, Vote, Stand. Trump, who has made few visits to the capital since leaving office in January 2021, DeSantis and Ramaswamy have promised large-scale firings of federal workers if they are elected. Another Republican candidate, Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, said earlier this week that he’d put “most of the Department of Agriculture in Iowa and let a farmer run it.” One thing to watch today: The University of Michigan releases preliminary data on inflation expectations of American consumers. [Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter]( for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 5pm ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day Observed methane releases from global oil and gas operations are [30% higher]( than what countries estimate in reports to the United Nations, according to a new study that analyzed satellite observations of the potent greenhouse gas. The world’s top oil and gas emitters — the US, Russia, Venezuela and Turkmenistan — account for most of the overall discrepancy, the scientific journal Nature Communications reported. And Finally While the aviation industry has promised to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050, harsher weather conditions are already forcing a [rethink of critical infrastructure](. Airports around the world are relocating sensitive electrical equipment to rooftops to protect it from flooding, reinforcing runways to handle extreme temperature swings and revving up air conditioning as climate change complicates operations.​ A flooded tarmac at the Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport on April 13. Photographer: Miami Herald/Tribune News Service/Getty Images Pop quiz (no cheating!) Which country’s president-elect has withdrawn from the transition process to a new government after prosecutors raided electoral offices? Send your answers to balancepower@bloomberg.net. 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