Argentine shakeup

Argentine politics have again been turned upside down [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Here we are again, with another presidential primary that has turned Argentine politics upside down. Like four years ago the unexpected happened, and Javier Milei, the eccentric right-wing populist and admirer of former US President Donald Trump, now has a real shot at leading the nation. Key Reading: [How Argentina’s Wildcard Presidential Candidate Won Primary Race]( [Outsider Milei Upends Argentina’s Election With Primary Win]( [Argentine Markets Brace for Turmoil on Populist’s Election Upset]( [Elections Test Argentine Appetite for Tough Economic Reforms]( [Argentina’s Inflation Opens Way to Presidential Upset]( In a stronger-than-expected showing yesterday, Milei captured more than 30% support in the ballot to choose who can run for the presidency, against about 28% for the two candidates combined of the pro-business opposition Juntos por el Cambio and 27% for the ruling Peronist coalition. The fact that Milei individually got more votes than the country’s two main coalitions shows how his attacks on the political establishment are resonating with an electorate frustrated by rampant inflation and a looming recession. His ideas range from scrapping the central bank and replacing the peso with the dollar to legalizing the sale of human organs. Yet the result is just the first step in what’s a long and uncertain electoral process. With a three-way race now expected in the Oct. 22 first-round election, a runoff is likely to be needed in November to pick a president. And the fact the three leading political groups captured almost 86% of the combined votes leaves little space to garner new support, making the forecasting of a result more difficult. In the meantime, the economy threatens to pour even more uncertainty on the race in the weeks until the vote. The government is running out of options to avoid a currency devaluation, and the $44 billion agreement with the International Monetary Fund is also at risk of collapsing, making the job of Sergio Massa, the economy minister who’s a presidential candidate for the Peronists, almost impossible. One thing is clear: Milei has taken politics in Argentina in a novel direction. — [Juan Pablo Spinetto]( Milei celebrates the primary results with his sister, Karina, in Buenos Aires. Photographer: Alejandro Pagni/AFP/Getty Images Check out the Bloomberg Politics [webpage](, and if you are enjoying this newsletter, sign up [here](. Global Headlines With Americans skeptical of his handling of the economy, President Joe Biden is leading a [marketing blitz]( to mark the one-year anniversary of the Democrats’ landmark climate and drug pricing legislation. While officials are counting on the measure to fuel the president’s reelection bid, seven in 10 Americans surveyed in a Washington Post-University of Maryland poll said they had heard little or nothing about the law. - A lawyer for Hunter Biden said he’s committed to [avoiding a trial]( for the president’s son, whose legal woes are set to remain in focus during the 2024 election campaign after his plea deal collapsed. A forced inspection by the Russian navy on a Turkish cargo vessel [threatened shipping]( in the Black Sea, Ukraine said, sending wheat prices higher. A Russian warship opened fire and then sent helicopter-borne troops to board the dry-cargo vessel Sukru Okan yesterday. It later allowed the ship to resume its journey to the Ukrainian Danube port of Izmail. - Kremlin economic aide Maxim Oreshkin blamed the central bank for contributing to a [plunge in the ruble](, an unusual rebuke made public just moments before the Russian currency broke through 100 to the dollar for the first time since March last year. The one universal impact of climate change, felt in every corner of the planet, is an uptick in temperatures. Take this summer in the northern hemisphere, which has likely been humanity’s hottest, and 2023 is on track to be the warmest year in recent history. To visualize how climate change drives warming year-round, scientists often use what’s called a shifting bell curve, but the change doesn’t mean all days get slightly warmer. Instead, the coldest days get less cold, and the hottest days get hotter. These changes drive [pronounced climate consequences](. Boost production of missiles: That was the message from North Korean leader Kim Jong Un over the weekend as he toured plants making weapons to strike America’s allies, ahead of a summit of the leaders of Japan, South Korea and the US this week. It was Kim’s second such visit in about a week, [placing a spotlight]( on the security threat posed by his country as the Biden administration seeks help to deter his nuclear ambitions. Kim during his visit to a military factory. Source: KCNA Best of Bloomberg Opinion - [Myths About the Stone Age Can Be Quite Revealing: F.D. Flam]( - [Biden Must Undo Trump Gun Export Policy: Francis Wilkinson]( - [Whatever You Do, Don’t Call Me a Queenager: Andreea Papuc]( Niger’s self-declared military leadership [vowed to prosecute]( deposed President Mohamed Bazoum while saying it’s also prepared to reopen talks with a West African regional economic bloc that has demanded the junta cede power. The coup leaders plan to charge Bazoum with “high treason and undermining the internal and external security of Niger,” Agence France-Presse reported. Explainers You Can Use - [Why China Markets Are Being Rocked By Contagion Fears]( - [What’s Driving Coups in Niger and Across West Africa?]( - [Why US-China ‘Decoupling’ Prospect Is Getting Serious]( Ecuador’s presidential candidates tried to distinguish themselves in a bumpy debate yesterday, marked by the absence of a replacement for slain candidate Fernando Villavicencio. While [no-one dominated the evening](, polls conducted after Villavicencio’s killing last week have shown Jan Topic, an anti-crime hard-liner, gaining ground against leftist Luisa Gonzalez ahead of the Aug. 20 election. Tune in to Bloomberg TV’s Balance of Power at 5pm to 6pm ET weekdays with Washington correspondents [Annmarie Hordern]( and [Joe Mathieu](. You can watch and listen on Bloomberg channels and online [here](. 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Thanks to the 15 people who answered our Friday quiz and congratulations to Zippie Georgie, who was the first to name India as the Asian country whose leader faced, and survived, a vote of no-confidence last week. And finally ... Orange barricades and sheriff’s deputies, law-enforcement vehicles, and media vans have surrounded the Fulton County courthouse in Atlanta, where Trump may face his [fourth criminal indictment]( this week. District Attorney Fani Willis, who has been probing the former US president’s effort to overturn the 2020 election result in Georgia for two-and-a-half years, is expected to present the case to a grand jury as soon as today. Barricades outside of the courthouse. 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