Trials for Trump, and America

Trump’s multiplying legal woes boost his appeal with Republicans [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Everyone expects Donald Trump to be indicted soon for trying to overturn his 2020 election defeat — including Trump himself. “THE TRIAL OF THE CENTURY!” he crowed on his Truth Social platform this week. Should it happen, it’ll be Trump’s second federal indictment this year, following charges he mishandled classified records after leaving the White House in 2021, tried to conceal the documents from the government, and that he and two employees tried to delete surveillance video footage at his Mar-a-Lago estate. Key Reading: [Trump Faces New Charges Over Footage in Mar-a-Lago Probe]( [Trump, DOJ Spar Over Where He Can Talk About Classified Evidence]( [Trump Will Revive Stolen-Vote Claim If Charged Over Jan. 6]( [Trump on Standby With No Grand Jury Indictment Thursday]( He faces as many as six trials over the next year, including civil lawsuits and state charges in New York and potentially Georgia. Yet because so many Republicans believe the indictments are politically motivated, fresh charges only bolster Trump. He remains the front-runner for the Republican nomination for president by a wide margin, increasing the odds he will again challenge Joe Biden for the White House in 2024. A re-run of the last election is something most Americans have made clear in surveys they don’t want. Many Democratic leaders are almost giddy with anticipation of another Trump candidacy because, barring something extraordinary, the odds of the former president actually winning a general election look shaky. Biden isn’t especially popular, with only about 42% of Americans approving of his performance, according to the political website FiveThirtyEight.com. But about 57% hold an unfavorable view of Trump, a level of distaste that’s been rising as the campaigning intensifies. More worrisome for Republicans: They’ve lost or underperformed in three straight elections in which Trump was involved. As always with Trump, making predictions about his political demise can be perilous. But by next year, it’s conceivable that he may be pursuing the White House from federal prison. There’s no precedent for that, and the prospect of Americans electing a convicted felon as president is hard to imagine. — [Alex Wayne]( Trump exiting the US Courthouse in Miami on June 13. Photographer: Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg [Sign up]( for our twice-weekly newsletter Next Africa, and if you are enjoying this newsletter, sign up [here](. Global Headlines President Vladimir Putin will discuss Russia’s war on Ukraine with [African]( leaders at a summit in St. Petersburg today. That’s as Ukraine’s long-awaited [assault]( against Russian troops in the occupied south kicks off a new stage in the conflict, while Moscow steps up a long-range missile campaign. Read [here]( about one company the US accused of seeking to evade sanctions and smuggle in vital microchips for Russian weapons. First came the hottest June in recorded history, now the hottest-ever July. This year is already highly likely to replace 2016 atop the heat ranking, and scientists suspect the past several years have been warmer than any point in more than 125,000 years. As Eric Roston and John Ainger report, the problem is clear: Climate change triggered by burning fossil fuels is visibly [outrunning our efforts]( to stem global warming. - Europe’s [wildfire threat is spreading]( to the French Riviera, while firefighters in Greece battle more than 100 blazes. Investigators in India will [probe a horrifying incident of two women]( being paraded naked and allegedly raped in violence-torn Manipur state, an event that triggered a backlash against Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration. Footage of the assault sparked public anger over sexual crimes in the world’s largest democracy, where women and girls often fear retribution if they report attacks. It also pushed Modi to make his first public comments regarding the violence in Manipur that has killed more than 150 people. Best of Bloomberg Opinion - [What Happened to All Those Chinese Tourists?: Adam Minter]( - [There’s One Way to Soften the UK’s Pension Punch: Stuart Trow]( - [My Eyeball Met Sam Altman’s Crypto AI Scanner: Lionel Laurent]( India and Brazil are [pushing back]( against a Chinese bid to rapidly expand the BRICS group of emerging market nations to grow its political clout and counter the US, sources say. The countries have raised objections in preparatory talks for a summit in Johannesburg next month where Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa will discuss potentially expanding the group to include Indonesia and Saudi Arabia. Explainers You Can Use - [Summer of Heat and Fire Doesn’t Sway Republicans on Climate]( - [Facebook False News in US Election Reached More Conservatives]( - [Britain Wobbles on Green Policies That Built Its Climate Legacy]( The Hong Kong government lost its bid in the High Court to ban a controversial protest song from its Internet in a [rare victory for free speech]( in the financial hub. The authorities had sought to make it illegal for anyone with criminal intent to perform or broadcast Glory to Hong Kong, including the lyrics and melody, on grounds of national security. - Hong Kong urged Washington to let its leader, John Lee, [attend a major economic summit]( in the US in November, after a report that the Biden administration plans to bar the sanctioned official. The music score for Glory to Hong Kong. Photographer: Justin Chin/Bloomberg Tune in to Bloomberg TV’s Balance of Power at 5pm to 6pm ET weekdays with Washington correspondents [Annmarie Hordern]( and [Joe Mathieu](. You can watch and listen on Bloomberg channels and online [here](. News to Note - Kim Jong Un was joined by high-level delegations from Russia and China at a military parade in Pyongyang where North Korea showed off its newest missile designed to [deliver a nuclear warhead]( to the US. - Japan expressed serious concern over joint exercises between China and Russia in its annual defense report, calling the military drills by [its nuclear-armed neighbors]( clear and deliberate provocations. - Three top officials from [China’s rocket force unit](, which manages the nation’s nuclear arsenal, are being probed, the South China Morning Post reported today, citing sources. - The US House budget process ground to a halt yesterday amid simmering conflicts over spending levels and controversial social issues, raising the risk of a [government shutdown]( ahead of a Sept. 30 deadline. - Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan[revamped his economic team]( by installing three new central bankers who include a former adviser at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Pop quiz (no cheating!) In which country are about 42,000 people facing the threat of starvation in towns and villages that are under siege by Islamist militants? Send your answers to balancepower@bloomberg.net. And finally ... Wanted: A central bank governor to help reset [Lebanon’s financial system that collapsed]( under decades of corruption and mismanagement, in a country whose currency is almost worthless and where the banking sector faces losses nearly three times the size of the economy. And with just four days to go before incumbent Riad Salameh — blamed by some for the chaos and the subject of an Interpol Red Notice over money laundering allegations in Germany and France — steps down, there is no successor in place. The aftermath of the explosion at the port of Beirut in August 2020, which put further strain on Lebanon’s struggling economy. Photographer: Hasan Shaaban/Bloomberg More from Bloomberg - [Washington Edition]( for exclusive coverage on how the worlds of money and politics intersect in the US capital - [Economics Daily]( for what the changing landscape means for policy makers, investors and you - [Supply Lines]( for daily insights into supply chains and globe trade - [Bw Daily]( for unique perspectives, original reporting and insightful analysis from Businessweek’s renowned journalists - [Green Daily]( for the latest in climate news, zero-emission tech and green finance Explore more newsletters at [Bloomberg.com](. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Balance of Power newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox. 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