Black Sea threats, Thailand’s democracy struggle: Weekend Reads

The crisis in the Black Sea and other top political stories of the week [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Russia’s navy conducted a live-fire exercise in the Black Sea after Moscow and Kyiv traded threats about [targeting any ships]( heading to the other’s ports following this week’s collapse of a deal that had allowed Ukraine to export some grain via safe corridors. As heat builds across the Mediterranean, temperatures are expected to climb [toward a European record]( next week. Interconnected domes of high pressure are bringing extreme heat across the Northern Hemisphere, from California’s Death Valley to Turpan in western China. Thailand’s pro-democracy parties continued to plan [how they can end]( nearly a decade of military-backed rule. Spain goes to the polls on Sunday with a real chance that the [far right](could join a government for the first time since the end of Francisco Franco’s 36-year dictatorship in 1975. UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives suffered [two thumping defeats]( in votes for vacant parliamentary seats, highlighting the task ahead to turn around the party’s slump in polls before a general election expected next year. Delve into these and other top stories in this edition of Weekend Reads. — [Karl Maier]( The TQ Samsun bulk carrier carrying Ukrainian grain transits the Bosphorus Strait. Photographer: Chris McGrath/Getty Images [Sign up]( for our twice-weekly newsletter Next Africa. And if you are enjoying this newsletter, sign up [here](. Russia Pulls the Plug on Ukraine Grain Export Agreement Moscow ended the Ukraine grain-export deal nearly a year into the agreement, heightening [uncertainty over global food supplies]( and escalating tensions in the region. Russia had repeatedly threatened to leave the pact, which had marked a rare example of cooperation during its war in Ukraine. The shutdown will hit key buyers like China, Spain and Egypt. - The Russian military [may attack civilian shipping]( in the Black Sea as part of its effort to target Ukrainian grain facilities, US officials said Wednesday, citing new intelligence. - President Vladimir Putin [won’t attend next month’s summit]( of BRICS leaders in South Africa, avoiding the risk of possible arrest on a warrant from the International Criminal Court for alleged war crimes committed in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Biden Wants to Run on the Economy, Not Away From It Top US officials believed that President Joe Biden wasn’t getting enough credit for his economic accomplishments from a public still smarting from two years of historically high prices for everything — food, rent, travel, housing, cars. So as Nancy Cook writes, they adopted “Bidenomics” [as a way to rebrand]( their existing policies as they gear up for the 2024 election. - Big Republican Party donors have [divided their support]( among several candidates, making it harder for any of them to overtake Donald Trump to become the party nominee. Placards depicting Republican presidential candidates on a wall during the Turning Point Action conference in West Palm Beach, Florida on July 15. Photographer: Eva Marie Uzcategui/Bloomberg Trump’s Second-Term Plans Target Migrants, Bureaucrats, China Trump has made clear that if he returns to the White House in 2025 [he will bar babies]( born in the US from automatically receiving citizenship, ban transgender people from the military, oust scores of civil servants in the national-security and law-enforcement establishment and swiftly end the war in Ukraine. His plans also include ordering the Justice Department to criminally investigate his rival, Biden. - The former president potentially faces as many as [six criminal and civil cases]( in the next year, including lawsuits against him, his family and companies. Biden Invites Israel’s Netanyahu to Meet as Tensions Rise Biden invited Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to meet in the US later this year amid strains between the two longtime allies. Ethan Bronner and Jordan Fabian write that the Biden administration has been [reluctant to grant the traditional visit]( for an Israeli premier to Netanyahu, whose right-wing government has drawn criticism and public protests over changes that would weaken the independence of the judiciary. - Few in Israel had heard of Gali Baharav-Miara when she was appointed attorney general two years ago to [become the first woman in the job](. Now she’s at the center of a political storm over the proposed judicial overhaul. Protesters take part in a “Day of Resistance” demonstration in Tel Aviv on Tuesday. Photographer: Kobi Wolf/Bloomberg Xi’s Big Private-Sector Push Runs Into Wall of Skepticism China’s pledges to rebuild a shattered private sector fell flat with investors, underscoring the damage two years of crackdowns and pandemic controls have had on confidence in the world’s second-largest economy. The announcement came [in a rare joint statement]( from the Communist Party and the government on Wednesday, with 31 measures to improve conditions for businesses. - Washington’s efforts to [restrict investments in China]( will be narrowly focused on cutting-edge technology, only new projects, and likely won’t go into effect until next year, sources say.  - Leaders of the largest US chipmakers told Biden officials this week that the administration should [study the impact of restrictions]( on exports to China and pause before implementing new ones, sources say. Clock Runs Out as US-China Climate Talks End Without Deal The US and China need more time to “break new ground” in their shared mission to [combat global warming](, US climate envoy John Kerry said in an interview Wednesday after three days of talks in Beijing ended without sweeping new commitments. Jennifer A. Dlouhy reports that Washington and Beijing agreed to work intensively ahead of a critical UN climate summit starting in November in Dubai. ‘River of Wind’ Is Cementing Heat Domes Across the Planet Climate change is at the heart of what’s pushing temperatures to new records, but there’s more to the picture. Brian K. Sullivan explains that the way the Earth and the atmosphere are wired [means that the weather]( in one location can influence conditions on the other side of the globe, with high and low pressure zones helping to create the links. The phenomenon, known as teleconnections, has to do with how air moves around the atmosphere. - The [extreme weather]( is just one of threats to food supplies that are once again mounting around the world. Firefighters attend a wildfire in Saronida, south of Athens, on July 17. Photographer: Nick Paleologos/Bloomberg Untested, Unknown: Spain’s King of Galicia Set for Election Win The conservative frontrunner in Spain’s parliamentary elections on Sunday, Alberto Nunez Feijoo, is the [center right’s big hope]( to oust Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and add momentum to the conservative shift in European politics. But, as Alonso Soto writes, he will almost certainly have to court support from the anti-immigrant Vox party to rule. - Read our QuickTake about the [culture wars]( shaping the election. Best of Bloomberg Opinion This Week - [For India’s Modi, Trouble Has Come in Triplicate: Opinion Wrap]( - [Biden and the Coming Crisis in Global Democracy: Niall Ferguson]( - [Britain Should Stop Pretending It’s Rich: Adrian Wooldridge]( - [The Smoke and Mirrors of Western Oil Sanctions: Javier Blas]( - [Donald Trump’s Mad Power Grab Plan: Jonathan Bernstein]( Tories Urge New Sunak Strategy, Cabinet After Election Losses While Sunak is hoping for an economic miracle before the next general election, twin defeats in elections for parliamentary seats on opposite ends of England show voters [have little patience](for his strategy to play out. As Alex Wickham reports, Conservative Party ministers, lawmakers and advisers believe the prime minister must radically change tactics and the cabinet to create dividing lines with the Labour opposition. Pheu Thai to Seek Senate Support While Sticking With Allies Thailand’s Move Forward Party — the winner of the most seats in the May election — decided to make way for an ally, the Pheu Thai Party, to lead a new administration after its leader Pita Limjaroenrat was denied shots at the premiership by the Senate. Patpicha Tanakasempipat writes that [the key challenge]( is winning the support of the 249-member Senate that is stacked with allies of the pro-military royalist establishment. Demonstrators outside the Thai Parliament in Bangkok on Wednesday. Photographer: Valeria Mongelli/Bloomberg Scandals Taint Singapore’s Clean Image, Complicating Succession Singapore’s ruling party has long relied on its reputation for clean governance to win elections and attract global capital. But as Philip J. Heijmans and Faris Mokhtar explain, [a series of scandals]( is putting that image to the test just as Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong prepares to pass the baton to new leaders. Best of Bloomberg Explainers This Week - [Dollar’s Busted Bull Run Has Doomsayers Calling End of an Era]( - [China’s Economy Is Weakening. Here’s Why That Matters]( - [Scientists Behind Fusion Milestone Near Repeat in Recent TestÂ]( - [What End of Ukraine Grain Export Deal Means for the World]( - [How Nigeria’s Leader Is Shaking Up a Shaky Economy]( Kenya’s Opposition Leads Protests as Schools, Stores Shut Opposition protests in Kenya against surging living costs and the outcome of last year’s elections are [undermining a post-pandemic recovery]( in the East African nation’s tourism industry, the third-biggest source of foreign exchange. David Herbling reports that more than 20 people have died in violence related to the demonstrations, the United Nations said on July 14. And finally … Government incompetence, corruption and policy paralysis in South Africa have left critical infrastructure in tatters, forcing companies [to step into areas]( that would be the job of the state in most countries. Prinesha Naidoo and Antony Sguazzin write that three decades after the African National Congress came to power, the government’s role as a provider of basic services is virtually non-existent in large swaths of the country. A repair crew from Pothole Patrol, a partnership between Discovery Insure, Dialdirect and the City of Johannesburg, fills potholes on a road in the main financial district on April 26. 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