Spain’s rightward shift

Spain’s far right is on the brink of making a comeback [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( The far right has a real chance of gaining a position in Spain’s government for the first time since the end of General Francisco Franco’s dictatorship almost half a century ago. Polls in the final week before Sunday’s election show Alberto Nunez Feijoo’s center-right People’s Party has a clear lead over the governing Socialists, but not enough support to clinch an outright majority. That means he’ll be wrestling with the question of just how much he’ll have to concede to the anti-immigrant Vox party to become Spain’s next prime minister. Key Reading: [Untested, Unknown: Spain’s King of Galicia Set for Election Win]( [Half a Century After Franco, the Far-Right Is Returning in Spain]( [Spain’s Sanchez Is Struggling to Make Economic Case: Six Charts]( [Spain’s Sanchez Reelection Chances Dim as Rival Dominates Debate]( However their alliance comes together, it will mark a dramatic shift after five years of Socialist Pedro Sanchez, who delivered more rights for trans people, more climate measures and reconciliation with the Catalan separatists. It has become a pattern in the European Union where conservative political forces have scored wins in Italy, Sweden, Greece and Finland since last year. That is changing the complexion of European politics, and the shift could well accelerate after next year’s European Parliamentary elections. The question is just how big will the departure be. Feijoo has been reaching out across the political spectrum, promising an inclusive government. Vox leader Santiago Abascal, with whom he’ll have to negotiate, calls the Socialists and the separatists traitors. There’s also a chance that the PP and Vox will fall short of the 176 seats they need for a majority. In that scenario, Spain could be headed for an extended period of gridlock. Vox’s trenchant opposition to everything from gay marriage and regional devolution to climate measures and immigration means that the two parties will struggle to add any support from minor political groups. And Sanchez has proven over the years that he won’t give an inch while he still has a chance to cling to power. Yet signs are Spain’s voice will emerge decidedly more conservative, and that may complicate the EU’s efforts to tackle key issues such as global warming, economic strategy and the war in Ukraine. — [Ben Sills]( A Vox supporter waves a Spanish flag at a rally in Badalona. Photographer: Angel Garcia/Bloomberg Check out the latest [Washington Edition newsletter](. You can [sign up]( to get it in your inbox every weekday. And if you are enjoying this newsletter, sign up [here](. Global Headlines Russia’s navy said it had conducted a [live fire exercise]( at a training range in the Black Sea after trading threats with Ukraine in which both sides said any ships heading to the other’s ports could be considered military targets. Since this week's collapse of a deal that allowed Ukraine to export some grain via safe corridors, threats between Moscow and Kyiv have escalated, sharpening the war’s risk to global commodities markets and driving wheat prices higher. - US Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns said he remains optimistic Ukraine will be able to [make advances]( in its counteroffensive, as Russia suffers from significant structural weaknesses behind its defenses. - Read more from our coverage of the war in Ukraine [here](. Donald Trump has made clear that if he returns to the White House in 2025 [he will bar babies]( born in the US from automatically claiming citizenship, ban transgender people from the military, oust scores of civil servants in the national-security and law-enforcement establishment and swiftly end the war in Ukraine. His plans also include ordering the Justice Department to criminally investigate his rival, President Joe Biden. - An FBI document released yesterday [as evidence of bribes]( paid by Ukrainian businessmen to Biden and his son, Hunter, isn’t as clear cut as Republican lawmakers have portrayed it. Russia is poised for its first interest-rate hike since emergency measures taken after the invasion of Ukraine almost 17 months ago, as a stretch of [steep currency depreciation]( forces the central bank’s hand. The failed Wagner mutiny in June added to the pressure from a deterioration in foreign trade that’s turned the ruble into one of the worst performers against the dollar this year in emerging markets. The two thumping electoral defeats UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives [suffered yesterday]( highlighted the task ahead to turn around the party’s slump in the polls. While they held onto one of the three contested seats, surveys show voters blame the decline in public services and a cost-of-living crisis on the Tories, who have been in power since 2010. - Sunak is eyeing holding the next general election in November 2024 to allow the economy as much time as possible [to recover before a vote](, a source says. Best of Bloomberg Opinion - [Russia Weaponizing Wheat Won’t Hurt the World: Javier Blas]( - [Make in India? What Modi Has Really Made Is INDIA: Mihir Sharma]( - [An American Economist In The EU? Macron Says Non: Lionel Laurent]( Government incompetence, corruption and policy paralysis in South Africa have left critical infrastructure in [tatters](, forcing companies to step into areas that are within the purview of the state in most countries. Prinesha Naidoo and Antony Sguazzin write that three decades after the African National Congress came to power, the government’s role as a provider of basic services is virtually non-existent in large swaths of the country. Explainers You Can Use - [‘River of Wind’ Is Cementing Heat Domes Across the Planet]( - [Popular Taiwan Mayor Stumbles in Bid to Lead in US-China Hotspot]( - [Here Are the Main Contenders to Replace Rutte as Dutch Premier]( Cambodian strongman Hun Sen is preparing to [hand over power to his son](, Hun Manet, a four-star general, with a landslide victory expected in elections this weekend for the ruling party, which has won every vote since 1993 as opponents were jailed. Philip J. 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Pop quiz (no cheating!) Which country’s foreign minister, considered a rising political star, hasn’t been seen in public for more than three weeks? Send your answers to balancepower@bloomberg.net. And finally ... Hong Kong’s bid to wipe a controversial protest song from the city’s internet is flashing fresh [warning signs]( for businesses that the once-freewheeling international hub is tracking closer to mainland China rules. The case has raised fears Western tech firms such as Google may be forced to reconsider their presence in the city, with the determination to pursue the ban on Glory to Hong Kong signaling a campaign to eliminate dissent is still expanding. Demonstrators sing during a flash mob in 2019. Photographer: Chan Long Hei/Bloomberg Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. 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