A fateful summer

Russia and Ukraine face a potentially decisive summer that may shape the resolution of the war. [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Presidents Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskiy face a potentially decisive summer that may shape the resolution of the war between Russia and Ukraine. Putin unexpectedly finds himself having to worry about his domestic security as tensions within the Russian military over the course of the war have erupted into the open since last month’s mutiny by Wagner mercenaries. Key Reading: [Russia Closes Crimea Bridge and Blames Explosions on Ukraine]( [China Intensifies Russia Military Drills Amid US Sanctions]( [Putin Asserts ‘Right’ to Use Cluster Bombs While Denying He Has]( [Ouster of Russian General ‘Spartacus’ Sparks Ruling Party Feud]( [Putin’s Budget Math Gets Ugly With Election Looming After Mutiny]( [Ukraine Grain-Export Deal Collapses as Russia Terminates ItÂ]( Top generals have disappeared from view as the security services investigate whether elements in the military knew about and sympathized with Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin’s revolt aimed at ousting Russia’s defense minister and army chief. Others have made very public criticisms of Russia’s top military leadership. The discontent mirrors deepening doubts among Russia’s elite about Putin’s ability to avoid defeat in Ukraine. Explosions that damaged Putin’s flagship bridge to Crimea today, which Russia blamed on Ukraine, underscored the sense of gloom, while the collapse of the Black Sea grain deal creates further tensions. It’s all stoking political unease as the Kremlin tries to lay the ground for another six-year term for Putin at elections scheduled for March. Zelenskiy knows that by the fall he’ll need to show something substantial from the military counteroffensive that’s making slow, grinding progress in eastern and southern Ukraine after months of preparations and billions of dollars of weapons delivered by Kyiv’s international alies. Ukraine was left disappointed by last week’s NATO summit that pledged more military support but held back from offering a formal invitation to join the alliance. While US President Joe Biden said later that the economic and political toll on Russia meant Putin “has already lost the war,” Ukraine knows that only battlefield successes will help it regain territory and strengthen its position in any future negotiations to end the conflict. The mutiny exposed Putin’s position as more fragile than anyone thought under the stresses of the war. The summer’s fighting may show whether Zelenskiy’s has strengthened sufficiently to deal a decisive blow. A photograph from video footage reportedly showing damaged parts of the Kerch bridge in Crimea today. Source: Ostorozhno Novosti/AP Photo Check out the latest [Washington Edition newsletter](. You can [sign up]( to get it in your inbox every weekday. And if you are enjoying this newsletter, sign up [here](. Global Headlines Two unexpected resignations rocked Singapore’s ruling People’s Action Party, fueling one of the biggest political crises in the city-state’s history. The decisions of parliamentary speaker Tan Chuan-Jin and another lawmaker to quit are the latest in a series of scandals [to send shockwaves]( through Singapore, including a graft probe into a cabinet minister and investigations into pricey rentals by two other members of Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s administration. - Here’s a [look at past scandals]( that have engulfed politicians from the ruling party. Big Republican Party donors have divided their support among several candidates, making it harder for any of them to overtake Donald Trump to become the party nominee for next year’s US election. Funders giving enough money to keep the long list of Trump alternatives active [is the biggest fear]( of those in the party who want to move on from the former president. US envoy John Kerry is in China for the first major climate [talks]( in almost a year, with both sides pledging to overlook tensions and work toward tangible results. Climate negotiations between the world’s top two emitters were suspended last year after then House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its territory. Kerry expressed hope of “big steps” in the discussions today, while his Chinese counterpart, Xie Zhenhua, said their exchanges on climate could help improve bilateral ties. - Taiwanese Vice President Lai Ching-te, a top candidate for president, will stop in the US next month en route to South America in a visit that [risks roiling tensions with China]( months before the election. Best of Bloomberg Opinion - [China’s Renewables Boom Fuels Its Coal Expansion: David Fickling]( - [Biden and the Coming Crisis in Global Democracy: Niall Ferguson]( - [As Justices Snipe, Supreme Court’s Image Suffers: Noah Feldman]( Pita Limjaroenrat can’t be nominated as prime minister again when Thailand’s parliament reconvenes on Wednesday to vote afresh after he fell short last week, a member of the military-appointed Senate that picks the new leader said. The view of Senator Seri Suwannapanont highlights [further obstacles to Pita](, whose Move Forward Party won the most seats in the May general election but faces opposition from conservative forces due to an election promise of amending the country’s royal insult law. Pita speaks to the media following the vote for the new prime minister in Bangkok on July 13. Photographer: Valeria Mongelli/Bloomberg Explainers You Can Use - [Dollar’s Busted Bull Run Has Doomsayers Calling End of an Era]( - [China’s Growth Disappoints, Fueling Calls for More Stimulus]( - [AI Can Write, But Is It Any Good at Picking Stocks?]( The sense of despondency in the UK’s governing Conservative Party has deepened with the announcement that Defense Secretary Ben Wallace will leave the government at the next cabinet reshuffle and will not be a candidate in the upcoming general election. The [timing is difficult]( for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak amid voter dissatisfaction with 13 years of Tory government, including deep-rooted problems in the National Health Service. Watch [Annmarie Hordern](’s interview with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen at 8:15am ET (2:15pm CET) on [Bloomberg Surveillance](. News to Note - Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said he [will hand over power]( to a caretaker government before the completion of his term next month. - Leaders of the European Union are seeking to reboot relations with Latin America as they host their counterparts from the region [in a competition]( for influence and trade links against Russia and China. - Tunisia and the EU signed a partnership to strengthen cooperation on migration policy that could become a [blueprint for curbing deadly migrant journeys]( across the Mediterranean Sea. - Support for Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s [cabinet fell]( amid concerns over problems with a national ID card and the release of treated wastewater from the Fukushima nuclear site. - President Yoon Suk Yeol headed to [the storm-battered towns]( of South Korea, as the latest downpours left at least 40 people dead and nine missing in floods and landslides. Thanks to the 22 people who answered our Friday quiz and congratulations to Marc Weinberg, who was the first to name Azerbaijan as the country that’s continuing to keep its land borders closed under Covid-19 measures despite the end of the pandemic. And finally ... Artwork and statues in China’s Dunhuang caves have survived sandstorms, political upheaval and tourists for more than a millennium. Now preservationists fear they’re facing their [most unrelenting foe]( yet — climate change. Extreme weather is bringing increased bouts of heavy rainfall and moisture to the deserts of Gansu province that have preserved the caves and their artwork. Delicate paintings are increasingly flaking and peeling, and cracks are forming that could undermine the structural integrity of the caves themselves. Crumbling and detachment on a mural in the Eastern Cave of the Jinta Temple. Source: Greenpeace Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? 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