5 things to start your day

[Bloomberg Markets]( [FOLLOW US [Facebook Share]]([Twitter Share]( [SUBSCRIBE [Subscribe]](  Forward Guidance  It's PMI day, OPEC signals no changes at Russia meeting, and dollar bears gather. Europe growth A composite Purchasing Managers’ Index for the euro area fell to 55.8 in July, the [weakest pace in six months](, according to IHS Markit. In France, the slowdown was concentrated in services as manufacturing grew at the [fastest pace]( in six years. The IMF, meanwhile, has indicated that the world will [rely less on the United States]( to drive global growth in the coming years, and cut its forecast for U.K. growth to 1.7 percent for this year while raising projections for Japan and the euro area. OPEC unchanged At a meeting in Russia today, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies indicated they [weren't planning any major changes]( to their deal to cut production. That means there will be no moves to impose output caps on [Libya and Nigeria](, countries that had been excused from the deal forged November 2016. A barrel of West Texas Intermediate for September delivery was trading [broadly unchanged at $45.80]( at 5:25 a.m. Eastern Time. Dollar bears Speculator and hedge-fund [net short positioning]( on the dollar have risen to the highest number of contracts since 2013, according to the latest CFTC report. The currency slumped to a [five-week low]( against the yen as concerns for President Donald Trump's growth agenda rise ahead of closed-door testimony from [Jared Kushner]( to the Senate Intelligence Committee today. In other currency news, Poland's zloty [strengthened the most in two months]( after the country's president unexpectedly vetoed part of the government's controversial judicial revamp. Markets slip Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index was [little changed](, while Japan's Topix index dropped 0.5 percent with exporters leading the losses due to the strong yen. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was [0.5 percent lower]( at 5:45 a.m. with automakers among the worst performers as they come under scrutiny over [possible collusion](. U.S. market futures pointed to a [lower open](. Coming up.. The big event for markets this week is Wednesday's [Federal Reserve decision](, with a Bloomberg survey showing that no change in policy is expected. Today in the U.S., preliminary Markit PMI data for July are released at 9:45 a.m., with existing home sales numbers at 10:00. Tech will dominate earnings this week, with Google parent Alphabet Inc. reporting after the bell today, while Amazon.com Inc. and Facebook Inc. are due in the coming days. Here's what you should read today - [Odd Lots]( Podcast: What it's like to suddenly become a bond manager in the credit crisis. - Traders fear [hard landing]( in emerging markets. - Steelmakers are worth the [most in years](, thanks to China. - Macron's uphill battle against France's [labor law](. - Saudi economic plan will [test resolve]( of Prince's reform push. - Bitcoin startup  to take it into the real world. - [Comicononomics](.  And finally, here’s what Joe’s interested in this morning It's a truism in investing that you can't make money unless you're willing to take a risk. You can't get something for nothing. But what does this mean, and how does one actually think about compensation for risk? [On the latest episode of the Odd Lots podcast](, Tracy Alloway and I talked to David Schawel, a fixed-income portfolio manager at New River Investments. We talked about what a portfolio manager actually does, and the process through which he selects investments. He nicely summarized the four sources of risk that a bond manager can take. They are: Duration risk (sensitivity to interest rates), credit risk (can the entity make its payments), liquidity risk (how quickly can the asset be sold for cash), and embedded leverage. So for example, after the election, there was a big selloff in duration risk, as interest rates shot up. During the crisis, it was all about credit and liquidity risk. This is basic stuff of course, but it's useful thinking about stuff like this for any investment. Can you identify the specific risk that you're taking for which you expect to be compensated? It's worth seeing if you can actually answer the question. Anyway, David's a brilliant guy, so you should [listen]( to the episode [and follow him on Twitter here](.   Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can't find anywhere else. [Learn more.](   You received this message because you are subscribed to the Bloomberg Markets newsletter.   [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022