An unpredictable calculation

Officials doubt Israel can strike a decisive blow against Iran without help from the US [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has twice nearly attacked Iran. Now there are almost daily Israeli warnings of a strike over Tehran’s nuclear program. Trying to decipher the seriousness of the threat is always hard as Israel’s long-standing policy has been to try and intimidate Iran into reining in its suspected nuclear weapons ambitions. Key Reading: [As Iran Emerges From Isolation, Israel Is Feeling Cornered]( [Iran and Saudi Plot Path to End Rivalry That Drove Regional Wars]( [Iran Steps Up IAEA Cooperation Even as Uranium Stockpile Surges]( [Hedge Funders Drive Protests in Battle Over Israeli High Court]( While Iran maintains its program is for purely peaceful purposes, it’s been enriching uranium close to weapons grade. What’s troubling for Israel’s closest ally, the US, and oil-rich Persian Gulf states, is that the Israelis are feeling increasingly vulnerable. That’s also an issue for vital shipping lines that could end up in the firing-line of any Iranian retaliation. Iran has meanwhile been bolstered by a new military alliance with Russia and a Chinese-brokered entente with arch-rival Saudi Arabia. Its regional allies Hezbollah and Hamas have stepped up their targeting of Israel. As former White House Middle East envoy Dennis Ross says, Iran is hardening its defenses, meaning Israel’s window to attack may be closing. “They will never allow themselves to lose the option. You don’t wait until it is one minute to midnight.” While the Joe Biden administration is focused on a diplomatic solution, Netanyahu dismisses such efforts as naïve. At the same time, Netanyahu’s hardline government has sparked unprecedented domestic strife through its bid to overhaul the judiciary, weakening the nation’s unity. Some Israeli officials worry their military capability alone isn’t enough to deliver a decisive strike and the blowback would mean a massive onslaught of missiles against Israel’s cities. It all makes calculating the outcome of what Israel sees as an existential threat from Iran deeply unpredictable. — [Henry Meyer]( A demonstration against proposed judicial reforms in Tel Aviv on March 26. Photographer: Kobi Wolf/Bloomberg Check out the latest [Washington Edition newsletter](. You can [sign up]( to get it in your inbox every weekday. And if you are enjoying this newsletter, sign up [here](. Global Headlines Miami has had a long history of high-profile defendants, from Al Capone to narco traffickers, but none like Donald Trump. City police [are gearing up]( for crowds ranging from 5,000 to 50,000 people as the former president appears in court today to enter a plea to a 37-count indictment [accusing him]( of mishandling classified documents after leaving the White House. - Trump’s stranglehold on the Republican Party showed [some signs of weakening]( yesterday as an influential GOP senator questioned the electability of the twice-indicted frontrunner for the party’s presidential nomination. - Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Trump’s administration [didn’t do enough]( to counter Chinese intelligence-gathering after discovering that Beiijng has operated a spy facility in Cuba since 2019. Just 15 days into the job, Nigerian President Bola Tinubu has rid the West African nation of a costly fuel subsidy, removed a controversial central bank governor and promised to unify a web of varying exchange rates. Foreign investors are [embracing the decisions]( to scrap a set of unorthodox policies that have been blamed for crippling the continent’s largest economy. The arrival of the first El Niño in almost four years foreshadows new damage to an already fragile global economy, with the shift to a warming phase expected to [generate chaos](. The world’s most potent climate phenomenon risks sparking a chain reaction of dangerous weather, food shortages and blackouts that can disrupt supply chains and stoke inflation. President Vladimir Putin’s annual economic forum in St. Petersburg was a magnet for global politicians and investors until he invaded Ukraine. Now it’s become a [measure]( of Russia’s deepening isolation, with organizers struggling to attract major political figures and European and US business leaders all but absent. The event that starts tomorrow is drawing mostly lower-level officials from countries that have stayed largely neutral on the war. - French President Emmanuel Macron said he hoped Ukraine’s [counteroffensive]( against Russian forces will be “as victorious as possible” and then lead to negotiations. - Follow our [Ukraine Recap]( for the latest coverage of the war. Best of Bloomberg Opinion - [Iran Wants to Make a Deal the US Must Refuse: Bobby Ghosh]( - [War in Ukraine So Far Favors the Defense: Leonid Bershidsky]( - [Africa Could Become a Climate Savior, Not Victim: Lara Williams]( Turkey will likely hold off approving Sweden’s [bid to join NATO]( when the two sides meet this week, despite the Nordic country’s hopes that a recent strict anti-terror law would persuade Ankara it’s cracking down on Kurdish militants. Turkey wants Stockholm to do more — such as prevent anti-Turkey protests there — before it signs off on its membership in time for a summit of the military alliance’s leaders next month, sources say. Explainers You Can Use - [California Wildfires Now Five Times Bigger Than in 1970s]( - [Google CEO Vows Not to Rush AI, Says Efficiency Drive Continues]( - [UK Needs to Build Eight-Hour Batteries to Balance Power Grid]( The death of Silvio Berlusconi may trigger a wide-scale [redrawing]( of his business empire and create another opportunity to consolidate political power in Italy for Giorgia Meloni. The prime minister can fill a void on the right of the nation’s political landscape and cement her standing at the helm of a major euro-zone economy that remains bedeviled by the chronic weak growth defined by his era. Berlusconi and Meloni in September 2022. Photographer: Alessia Pierdomenico/Bloomberg Tune in to Bloomberg TV’s Balance of Power at 5pm to 6pm ET weekdays with Washington correspondents [Annmarie Hordern]( and [Joe Mathieu](. You can watch and listen on Bloomberg channels and online [here](. News to Note - South Korea is pivoting to a “[hard-line stance](” in its relations with Beijing after China used “high-handed” diplomatic rhetoric in meetings between the two, the DongA Ilbo newspaper cited a “key” government official as saying. - Some conservative Republican lawmakers angered by House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s debt-ceiling deal with the White House are insisting on power-sharing and budget-cutting concessions in exchange for [allowing legislation]( to advance in the chamber. - The UK Parliament began work to address the [mounting wave of misconduct]( across Westminster that has included multiple allegations of sexual abuse and harassment against MPs. - Most Canadians believe Prime Minister Justin Trudeau [has botched responding]( to allegations of Chinese interference in his country’s elections, a new poll suggests. - England’s hospitals [face major disruption]( this week when junior doctors begin a three-day walkout in the latest dispute over pay and conditions. And finally … Rampant air rage is aggravating the misery of post-pandemic travel, with airlines reporting an increasing number of [disorderly]( incidents on flights. As Ragini Saxena writes, general annoyance over high ticket prices and heightened anxiety in the wake of Covid-19 may be contributing to frayed tempers, while chaotic airports, lost luggage and flight cancellations as carriers struggle with a lack of planes and labor aren’t helping. Now the aviation industry wants action, including by more nations prosecuting offenders. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Balance of Power newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox. 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