Tired of war

Many in Moscow just want the war in Ukraine to stop. [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Vladimir Putin enjoys almost mystical status for many within the Russian elite who’ve grown used to seeing him take risky gambles that pay off. Now they wonder if the president’s luck may be running out. As we report today, there’s deepening despondency in political and business circles about Russia’s prospects of winning the war in Ukraine. With the Ukrainian military having started a counteroffensive aimed at reclaiming occupied territories, many in Moscow just want the fighting to stop. Key Reading: [Russian Elite Is Souring on Putin’s Chances of Winning His War]( [Ukraine’s Allies Call Destruction of Dam a ‘War Crime’]( [UK Eyes War-Risk Insurance Scheme for Ukraine’s Reconstruction]( Read the [Ukraine Recap]( for the latest coverage of the war. But few expect Putin to call a halt. While nobody’s willing to tell him the invasion was a mistake amid the harshest state repression in decades, the sense of gloom about the future may intensify if Russia’s military is forced to retreat further. This week’s giant dam breach that flooded southern Ukraine has added to the uncertainty on the front lines. Floodwaters yesterday in Oleshky, Kherson region. Source: Maxar Technologies Putin has been a lucky leader during his nearly quarter-century rule, even as he’s also crushed any potential challengers. His popularity at home skyrocketed when he seized Crimea in 2014, while Russia adapted to international sanctions that failed to reverse the annexation. He intervened in Syria to save Bashar al-Assad’s regime, embarrassing the US and restoring Kremlin authority in the Middle East that was lost after the Soviet Union’s collapse. Putin also gradually strengthened Moscow’s influence over its former Soviet neighbors as he sought to oust Europe and the US from what he considers Russia’s back yard. That came crashing down with the bungled invasion. There’s no sign Putin’s leadership is threatened in the Kremlin, where he’s surrounded by hardliners urging an intensification of the war. But his infallible image has been shaken among the elite. As the Kremlin looks ahead to presidential elections next year, the stakes on the battlefield are high both for Ukraine and for Putin. A Ukrainian serviceman checks his rifle in a bomb shelter in the frontline city of Bakhmut on April 23. Photographer: Anatolii Stepanov/AFP/Getty Images Click [here]( to subscribe to our twice-weekly newsletter Next Africa. And if you are enjoying this newsletter, sign up [here](. Global Headlines A revolt by hardliners in the US House prompted Speaker Kevin McCarthy to call off votes for the remainder of the week and send lawmakers home. The rebellion by 11 ultra-conservatives [heightened tensions]( among Republicans following the speaker’s backing of a compromise with the White House to avert a US debt default. - The Justice Department told former President Donald Trump’s legal team that [he’s a target]( in a federal investigation into the handling of classified documents, sources say. Most Europeans view China as an “ally or necessary partner” despite seeing limits to the relationship, according to a poll by the European Council of Foreign Relations. The survey also found that a solid majority wants to stay out of a [US-China dispute]( over Taiwan, the self-ruled island that Beijing claims as its own. - The US-China diplomatic reengagement is still in its [early phase]( after tensions led to a rupture in communications, the White House’s top Asia official said. WATCH: New York City skies are filled with a smoky haze from Canadian wildfires. Source: Bloomberg As thick smoke from wildfires in Canada moved across the northeastern US, air pollution in New York [reached record levels](, putting the city atop the world’s list of the worst for air quality. State and local officials told residents to mask up and stay indoors. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Made-in-India push has ensnared Indian companies in a peculiar bind: the more they try to ramp up production in [competition with China](, the more dependent they become on their northern neighbor for components and raw materials. And the share of manufacturing in India’s GDP has dropped. It’s now at about 13%, well below the 25% target that Modi’s government has repeatedly pushed back. Best of Bloomberg Opinion - [India Needs to Focus on Tracks Before Fast Trains: Mihir Sharma]( - [AI Threatens to Widen Latin America Digital Divide: JP Spinetto]( - [Musk and Dimon Missed a Crucial Opportunity in China: Minxin Pei]( Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called for global cooperation to guard against risks posed by artificial intelligence, before talks with US President Joe Biden in Washington today that he hopes will [boost UK influence]( over regulating the technology. Sunak wants Britain to play a leading role in the AI debate and harbors hopes of establishing a global watchdog in London. - Sunak began his American visit by laying a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier to mark the deep [military ties]( between the UK and US. He also met with congressional leaders and appeared at an evening baseball game. Explainers You Can Use - [PGA Golf Merger Is Saudi Arabia’s Biggest Soft Power Win Yet]( - [Malaysia’s $15 Billion Row With Heirs of Sulu SultanÂ]( - [Why Normally Stable Senegal Is Wracked by Unrest]( Stymied by scandals hitting top aides and the defection of coalition allies, Gustavo Petro’s dream of becoming an [inspirational leftist leader]( who would jettison Colombia’s conservative economic orthodoxy is fading just 10 months into his presidency. Oscar Medina writes that instead of leading a peaceful revolution to lift millions out of poverty, Petro now risks spending the next three years as an unpopular lame duck. Check out the Stephanomics podcast on why the world is struggling to break its addiction to goods from China, the “world’s factory floor.” Listen [here]( and on [Apple]( and [Spotify](. News to Note - Singapore ruling party stalwart Tharman Shanmugaratnam will run for the [largely-ceremonial]( role of president after more than two decades as a key policymaker for the city-state. - Finland’s election winner said talks on a government program could be finalized as [early as next week](, even as parties still have many issues to find agreement on. - UK opposition leader Keir Starmer will commit his Labour Party to boost [domestic steel-making]( as he battles to win trade-union backing for economic plans that are central to his pitch to voters. - Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said his country will open 10 new embassies in Africa and also boost agricultural exports and strengthen military relations to [counter Russia’s influence]( in the region. And finally ... The world’s most popular sport has morphed from an expensive bit of fun for local bigwigs into a serious play for power and profit. From Manchester City to AC Milan, some of Europe’s best-known football clubs have changed hands, with new owners deploying the sporting assets as a diplomatic tool and other billionaires aiming to turn it into the cash cow it’s never managed to be. Read this [analysis]( of the ownership of the continent’s top five domestic leagues. Manchester United fans protest against the club’s ownership on April 8. Photographer: Robbie Jay Barratt/AMA/Getty Images Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Balance of Power newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox. [Unsubscribe]( [Bloomberg.com]( [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington Avenue, New York, NY 10022 [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( [Ad Choices](