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Economists expect US hiring to slow, the world’s biggest hedge funds spend millions to hire top talent and the US debt-ceiling legislation c [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Economists expect US hiring to slow, the world’s biggest hedge funds spend millions to hire top talent and the US debt-ceiling legislation clears a hurdle in the Senate. Awaiting jobs [The pace of hiring in the US is expected to have slowed in May](, supporting Federal Reserve officials who have recently signaled they will hold interest rates this month. Traders are betting a pause is more likely, and see just a one-in-three chance of a rate hike. Yet some are still bracing for a surprise. “Given our expectations for an above-consensus payroll print, we believe the pricing for June could increase once again as economic data remains strong,” wrote TD Securities strategists including Oscar Munoz in a note titled “Make or Break”. Talent war [The world’s biggest hedge funds are increasingly deploying expensive offers to hire and retain top traders](. Millions of dollars in signing bonuses and a higher cut of trading profits during initial periods are now becoming the norm at multi-manager investment firms ranging from Millennium, Citadel, Point72 Asset Management to BlueCrest Capital Management and Balyasny Asset Management. “In a world where there’s a lot of liquidity, the bigger challenge in developing a platform business is investing in talent rather than attracting capital,” said Chris Milner, the chief operating officer of London-based Eisler Capital, which is transforming itself into a multi-strategy hedge fund from its roots in macro trading. Debt compromise [The Senate passed legislation to suspend the US debt ceiling]( and impose restraints on government spending through the 2024 election, ending the risk of a US default. The measure now goes to President Joe Biden, who forged the deal with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. While the 63-36 vote was carried by moderates in both parties, many aired their misgivings about parts of the deal. But they were ultimately were convinced that their concerns weren’t worth risking the havoc a default would unleash. “If we do this we will not default,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said just before the vote. “That is very, very important.” Upbeat futures S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures rose about 0.4% at 5:10 a.m. in New York. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index traded near the lowest levels of the day, boosting most Group-of-10 currencies. Treasury yields were little changed, diverging from higher rates in Europe and the UK. Oil and bitcoin both gained more than 1%, while gold was little changed after three days of gains. Coming up… At 8:30 a.m., we’ll get the US non-farm payrolls and unemployment report for May. Economists expect hiring to have slowed to 195k from 253k in the previous month, while the unemployment rate probably ticked slightly higher to 3.5%. They also forecast average hourly earnings growth moderated on a monthly basis, while maintaining its year-on-year pace. What we’ve been reading Here’s what caught our eye over the past 24 hours: - [JPMorgan’s Dimon plans to visit Taiwan]( after his high-profile China trip - [Biden tumbles after speech](at the US Air Force Academy commencement - Judge in [Disney suit versus Florida’s DeSantis](steps aside due to conflict - [The US dollar is facing backlash]( from across the world - UK recession risk threatens [the pound’s longest winning streak this yearÂ]( - [Madrid becomes the new Miami](as rich Latin Americans flood Spain - [Can you spell `psammophile’?]( The 2023 Scripps National Spelling Bee’s toughest words And finally, here’s what Eddie’s is interested in this morning… It's jobs day in the US. And this is a big one. It provides the first test of the Federal Reserve's resolve to keep rates higher for longer after the debt-ceiling threat was nullified. Markets are pricing about a 25% chance of a hike this month -- it had been as high as 70% this week. The turn came after Governor Philip Jefferson -- nominated as vice chair -- hinted at a pause. Of course, we've already had a wealth of jobs data to digest this week. Applications for US unemployment benefits edged up by 2,000 to 232,000, a smaller number than was expected. Meanwhile, private payrolls registered by ADP Research Institute surged, increasing 278,000 following a revised 291,000 gain in April. And vacancies soared to the highest in three months. On the other hand, job cuts are also running hot with tech workers heavily affected, as this chart by Alex Tanzi shows. Overall, the job market has been stronger than many feared, and there's little sign of a looming recession. And while a headline reading above 200,000 -- roughly where estimates were going into the meeting -- would underscore that view, investors will also want to keep an eye on two other numbers. Average hourly earnings, forecast unchanged at 4.4%, could give a good reading on the entrenchment or otherwise of inflation. And the labor force participation rate, which has ticked up to 62.6% still leaves plenty of scope for returning workers to bid down wages.  Follow Bloomberg’s Eddie van der Walt on Twitter at [@EdVanDerWalt](. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Five Things to Start Your Day: Americas Edition newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox. 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