A question of defense

Can a country in open conflict with Russia join NATO? [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Since NATO’s expansion following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the main question it’s faced has been how far the US and its allies will go to protect nations under their collective security umbrella. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine provided a firm answer, as NATO heavyweights ramped up security for members on the alliance’s eastern flank like Poland and the three Baltic states. But the war has raised a new question: Can a country in open conflict with Russia join? Key Reading: [Macron Says Ukraine Deserves to Be in NATO, Just Not Right Now]( [France and Germany Are Split Over Ukraine’s Appeal to Join NATO]( [NATO Races to Counter Russia’s Threat in Europe’s Weak Spot]( Read more of our Ukraine coverage [here](. The short answer is no. While NATO states have poured billions of dollars of economic and military aid into Ukraine to help it defend itself, making it a member would by definition draw them into the war with Russia. Still, North Atlantic Treaty Organization leaders and officials meeting this week in Moldova and Norway outlined positions that indicate Kyiv may get, if not full membership, then at least some kind of insurance policy. Talks are underway on what that may entail before NATO’s July summit in Lithuania. Admitting that membership for Ukraine “isn’t accessible today,” French President Emmanuel Macron floated the prospect of “tangible” security guarantees — somewhere between what the US offers Israel and accession. Under a proposal drafted by former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s chief of staff, allies would back Ukraine’s self-defense with commitments to provide military and other resources. Ukraine’s status is also expected to get an upgrade so it can directly take part in discussions about NATO security. But according to a US source, it’s unclear whether Kyiv will get an actual timeline to join. “We cannot talk about a new membership in the middle of a war,” German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said in Oslo. For now, NATO’s message to Ukraine is clear: You can have cash, weapons, training and encouragement against Russia; but the fight is up to you. — [Michael Winfrey]( Zelenskiy and Macron in Paris on May 14. Photographer: Benjamin Girette/Bloomberg Check out the latest [Washington Edition newsletter](. You can [sign up]( to get it in your inbox every weekday. And if you are enjoying this newsletter, sign up [here](. Global Headlines The threat of a global financial crisis due to US political intransigence was [averted]( as the Senate passed legislation to suspend the debt ceiling and impose restraints on government spending through the 2024 election. The measure now goes to President Joe Biden, who forged the deal with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and plans to sign it just days ahead of a looming default. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is quietly trying to [fix]( the UK’s broken relationship with China. In recent weeks, he has sent a trade minister to Hong Kong while his envoy there called for handling more disagreements with Beijing behind closed doors. Foreign Secretary James Cleverly is expected to make a trip to China in the coming months. The UK government is desperate to find a way to make childcare more affordable and encourage more women back into the workforce, but a pre-Brexit alternative for tens of thousands of families has [effectively vanished](. Au pairs from European Union countries provided childcare at a reasonable price, but now agencies report stricter UK immigration rules have wiped out as much as 95% of the business. Macron has handed his far-right rival Marine Le Pen her best shot yet to cement a position in the center of French politics, and yet she’s [struggling]( to take advantage, Ania Nussbaum reports. Le Pen’s advisers identified public anger over the president’s pension reform as a moment when she could consolidate a reputation as a serious alternative. But the old problems that have dogged her career won’t go away. Best of Bloomberg Opinion - [The Question of Putin’s Evil Mercenary Boss: Andreas Kluth]( - [AI Robots Can’t Clean Our Plastic-Plagued Oceans: Lara Williams]( - [Turkey and Our Compassion Deficit Syndrome: Howard Chua-Eoan]( A backlash is brewing across the world against the hegemony of the US dollar, Michelle Jamrisko and Ruth Carson report. With many leaders seeking alternatives to the greenback that they say is [being weaponized]( to push America’s foreign-policy priorities, Washington risks denting the dollar’s preeminence in world markets and undermining the US’s ability to exert influence on the global stage. - BRICS nations asked the bloc’s development bank for guidance on how a potential new [shared currency]( might work, including whether it could shield countries from sanctions such as those imposed on Russia. Explainers You Can Use - [This Is How to Plan Your Low-Carbon, High-Impact Summer Vacation]( - [How Lack of Copper Could Slow the Energy Transition]( - [Space Has Become the New Frontier for Soft Power]( US-China tensions over Taiwan, chip curbs and the South China Sea are at the top of the agenda as defense officials from around the world meet in Singapore from today for the annual Shangri-La Dialogue. Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin and his Chinese counterpart, Li Shangfu, are among those taking part, but the US says Beijing has already ruled out a meeting between them. [Read]( our rolling update of the event. Tune in to Bloomberg TV’s Balance of Power at 5pm to 6pm ET weekdays with Washington correspondents [Annmarie Hordern]( and [Joe Mathieu](. You can watch and listen on Bloomberg channels and online [here](. News to Note - Donald Trump is pushing back on Florida Governor Ron DeSantis for telling voters he is [preferable]( to the former US president, who can only serve one more term if elected in next year’s election. - NATO allies need to sign more contracts with defense companies to [boost production]( given their ammunition stocks are running dry, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said in an interview. - European governments increased pressure on Serbia and Kosovo to [de-escalate]( tensions, demanding they hold new local elections in the troubled northern region that has seen the worst violence in a decade. - Russia’s main security service accused a US intelligence agency of [hacking]( several thousand iPhones, including devices belonging to Russian nationals and others linked to diplomatic missions and embassies in the country. - The Pentagon is buying [Starlink]( satellite communications terminals and services from billionaire Elon Musk’s SpaceX for use by the Ukrainian military, the US Defense Department said. Pop quiz (no cheating!) Which country’s president dismayed his allies by praising Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and his predecessor Hugo Chavez? Send your answers to balancepower@bloomberg.net. And finally ... Biden [tripped on stage]( yesterday after delivering remarks at the US Air Force Academy graduation ceremony. Secret Service and Air Force personnel immediately helped the 80-year-old president to his feet and he returned to his seat. He was seen walking unassisted to his motorcade after the 90-minute commencement ended and the White House said he wasn’t hurt. “I got sandbagged,” he quipped to reporters after he returned to Washington. Biden after falling. Photographer: Brendan Smialowski/Getty Images Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. 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