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Bakhmut and Belgorod sum up the state of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Two places — Bakhmut and Belgorod — sum up the state of Russia’s war in Ukraine after almost 500 days of fighting. Russia said it has finally taken Bakhmut, though Ukraine continued to dispute the claim and said its forces were also advancing around the outer edges of the eastern Ukrainian city that’s been devastated by months of intense warfare. Key Reading: [Russia Says Forces Still Clearing Out Incursion From Ukraine]( [Zelenskiy Signals Bakhmut Falling, Russian Casualties High]( [Russian Pro-War Writer Prilepin Injured in Car Bombing]( [Russia Changes Rules to Allow Elections Under Martial Law]( Follow our [recap of developments]( in the war. US President Joe Biden told reporters at the Group of Seven summit that Russia has suffered more than 100,000 dead and wounded in the battle for Bakhmut, a staggering cost to take a city with a population of about 70,000 before the war. With Ukraine preparing its long-awaited counteroffensive aimed at seizing back occupied territory, the scale of the Russian casualties underlines the sense of foreboding expressed by many nationalist military bloggers about the prospects for Moscow of avoiding defeat. In Russia’s Belgorod region, meanwhile, security forces are spending a second day battling an incursion from Ukraine that has brought the war onto President Vladimir Putin’s home territory. Russian volunteer militias said they carried out the attack, claiming on social media that they were seeking to “liberate” territory from the Kremlin’s control. This wasn’t how the war was meant to go for Russia. While Putin’s dream of a swift victory within days has long faded in the face of Ukrainian resistance, Russians are now being presented with growing evidence that he can’t keep them safe at home either. The incursion into Belgorod took the shine off any sense of victory in Bakhmut for many Russian commentators shocked by the attack. With a hot summer of fighting surely ahead, the risk for Putin is that the public mood in Russia turns even more sour about prospects for the war as a sense of insecurity grows. Soldiers of the “Freedom of Russia” Legion volunteer militia in Irpin, Ukraine, in 2022. Photographer: Sergei Chuzavkov/AFP/Getty Images Check out the latest [Washington Edition newsletter](. You can [sign up]( now to get it in your inbox every weekday. And if you are enjoying this newsletter, sign up [here](. Global Headlines Ukraine can’t win the war against Russia, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, widely perceived to be the [closest European Union]( nation to the Kremlin, said in an interview with Bloomberg Editor in Chief John Micklethwait. The war can only be stopped when Russia clinches an agreement with the US, Orban said. He added that he hopes Donald Trump will win reelection next year. WATCH: Prime Minister Viktor Orban says Hungary is not part of the “mainstream” European Union approach to Ukraine. Sourced: Bloomberg Moscow is threatening to [upend defense and energy deals]( with governments including India’s unless they help block expected moves aimed at turning Russia into a financial pariah state over its invasion. Documents seen by Bloomberg and accounts by officials in NATO countries offer a rare insight into how Russia is targeting commercial partners ahead of a June meeting of the global watchdog against money-laundering, [Alberto Nardelli]( and [Sudhi Ranjan Sen]( report. - Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin kicked off a [two-day visit]( to China, as Moscow seeks to deepen trade ties with Beijing amid growing international isolation over its war in Ukraine. - The US says it suspects Russian mercenary firm Wagner Group is trying to [ship weapons]( to fighters in Ukraine through the West African nation of Mali. After agreeing that a US default cannot be allowed to happen, Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy vowed to keep negotiating on raising the US debt limit. Although there was [no breakthrough]( in talks late yesterday, McCarthy said he expected to speak daily with Biden until a deal is sealed. The standoff may put more strain on a US economy that’s already vulnerable to a recession. - Investment bank clients are peppering Wall Street with questions about what happens if the US Treasury runs out of cash in the coming weeks and fails to make payments on Treasury securities. Read about the [scenarios they’re gaming out](. Investors have [jacked up sharply]( the premium they demand to hold US government debt that’s most at risk of default if Congress and the White House fail to raise the debt ceiling. Meanwhile, the price of credit-default swaps for US bonds and treasury bills that act as insurance for investors in cases of non-payment has risen higher than the bonds of Greece, Mexico and Brazil, which have defaulted multiple times and have credit ratings many rungs below that of the US. Best of Bloomberg Opinion - [UK Speeding Scandal Threatens a Political Crash: Therese Raphael]( - [Bakhmut Falls But Whose Victory Is It?: Leonid Bershidsky]( - [Meta’s $1.3 Billion EU Fine Could Get Worse: Parmy Olson]( After beating his leftist opponents in Sunday’s election, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis appears set for a victory in a second ballot expected on June 25 that should deliver [an absolute majority]( with a mandate to pursue his economic reform program. That prospect sets Greece apart from some of its neighbors that’ve seen allegiances fragment during a decade that’s included a financial crisis, a global pandemic and the return of war in Europe. Explainers You Can Use - [An American Oil Hub Is Pivoting to Offshore Wind]( - [Politics Is Messing Up Economic Data and Maybe Driving Inflation]( - [One in Three People Will Live in Dangerously Hot Areas by 2080]( Imran Khan won bail in multiple cases from an [anti-terrorism court]( in Islamabad, a temporary respite that may help calm supporters of Pakistan’s former prime minister and cool tensions with the military and the government. He still faces dozens of other charges, including graft, hiding assets and insulting a female judge — all of which he’s denied. Tune in to Bloomberg TV’s Balance of Power at 5pm to 6pm ET weekdays with Washington correspondents [Annmarie Hordern]( and [Joe Mathieu](. You can watch and listen on Bloomberg channels and online [here](. News to Note - The US has no plans to lift sanctions on Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu, a State Department spokesman said, [apparently backtracking]( on comments Biden made at the G-7 summit. - Thailand’s pro-democracy parties omitted an amendment to a [law forbidding royal insults]( in a common platform to form a government after winning the election. - Thousands of expatriate Indians thronged to Australia’s largest entertainment and sporting arena in Sydney [to welcome]( Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his first visit in nine years. - The New York author who won a $5 million [sexual-abuse trial]( against Trump this month wants to add fresh detail to an earlier defamation suit against the former president and seek new damages. - South Africa’s biggest opposition party is lobbying US lawmakers in a bid to preserve the country’s [duty-free access]( to the world’s biggest economy amid the two nations’ spat over Russia’s war. - US Senator Tim Scott formally entered the 2024 presidential race yesterday, launching a [long-shot bid]( with Wall Street support to move Republicans away from the grievance-laced politics of Trump. And finally ... Bullets and arrows flew last June as 500 Maasai clashed with police, military and park rangers in the most severe eruption of violence over a decision to reserve grazing land for wildlife, safari tourism and, with the right license, hunting. [Paul Tullis]( writes that the village of Ololosokwan near the famous Serengeti National Park is the center of [long-simmering conflict]( involving cattle herders, the Tanzanian government and a company called Otterlo Business that the United Nations says operates hunting trips for royals from the United Arab Emirates. The Tanzania-­Kenya border. Photographer: Adriane Ohanesian for Bloomberg Businessweek Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Bloomberg Politics newsletter. 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