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Everything is fine at Snapchat, except the stock price

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bloombergbusiness.com

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Thu, Jul 13, 2017 04:12 PM

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From    Happy almost Bastille Day, everyone. It's . Snapchat hasn't fundamentally changed sinc

[Bloomberg] [Fully Charged]( From [Bloomberg](   [FOLLOW US [Facebook Share]]([Twitter Share]( [SUBSCRIBE [Subscribe]](  Happy almost Bastille Day, everyone. It's [Shira](mailto:sovide@bloomberg.net). Snapchat hasn't fundamentally changed since it became a public company in March, but investors are nevertheless staging a revolt. (Get it? Bastille Day...revolution. Yes, I'm sorry.) Investors eagerly bought $3.9 billion worth of Snapchat stock more than four months ago but doubts are creeping in. Shares have fallen from an intraday high of $29.44 in the days after the IPO to $15.87 today, almost 7 percent below the initial offering price. The [latest blow]( was a flip-flop by the stock analysts at Morgan Stanley, whose investment bankers led Snapchat's IPO. The analysts changed their minds about how quickly Snapchat can improve its nascent options for advertisers and whether it can ward off competition from Facebook. The bank in March said Snapchat stock was worth buying and set a $28 share target price. Now the analysts say shares are worth $16. That's quite a reversal. Morgan Stanley isn't the only Wall Street doubter. After the [first wave]( of Snapchat stock research, the average analyst price target for was nearly $24, according data compiled by Bloomberg. Now it's $20.46. The odd thing is that Snapchat is still the same company it was March 1 when investors were [falling over themselves]( to own stock at an insane 23 times projected 2017 revenue. Snapchat still has a devoted but far from Facebook-sized crew of fans. It's still a [cash bonfire](. It still is a creative, [much-copied]( outlet for communication and entertainment. Mark Zuckerberg still wants to strangle Snapchat to death. People were more than willing to overlook Snapchat's flaws four months ago, but not anymore. So what changed? It didn't help that Snapchat's first earnings report as a public company was [meh](. Plus at the end of July more than 1 billion Snapchat shares will [suddenly become free to sell](, which is sure to pressure the stock price. And there has been a re-calibration of investors' attitude about tech stocks generally and maybe young tech companies in particular. There is fear now that stock investors have overcrowded into technology companies. And for newly public tech companies, [no one looks foolproof](. Blue Apron was never going to be a surefire winner but it [definitely isn't now](. Uber's chaos [doesn't look]( to have hurt its business very much but it showed young companies aren't immune from growing pains no matter their valuations. I don't want to overplay a stock decline just months after a company's market debut. But Snapchat's swoon isn't meaningless. It's the inaugural IPO from one of the stars of the mobile-first tech generation that includes Airbnb, Pinterest, Uber and Didi Chuxing. Snapchat and its compatriots have both incredible promise and undeniable pitfalls in their business models or sustainability. Every company is different, of course. But Snapchat right now has shown investors are choosing to focus on the warts over the potential. That's not a great sign for how the public market might greet Uber and the rest. --[Shira Ovide](  And here's what you need to know in global technology news Amazon's fake shopping holiday [was a hit](. Just don't ask too many questions about what Prime Day ["success" means for Amazon](.  China is in the midst of one of its periodic crackdowns on its citizens circumventing the country's internet censors. But a Chinese government agency said [it won't disrupt legitimate access]( to the global internet. The devil will be in the details, of course.  A motley crew of companies participated in a [day of support for the principles of net neutrality]( as the U.S. government is set to unwind open internet regulations. In [a great irony](, the internet service providers that had fought so hard against net neutrality regulations rallied in support of net neutrality. The term is meaningless now.  Another venture capital investor has [resigned]( after the firm disclosed claims of misconduct against him. The spotlight is on VC firms after multiple disclosures involving investment partners sexually harassing women or engaging in other inappropriate behavior.  So is WeWork a tech company now? The company that rents desk space to small businesses and solo entrepreneurs is [the world's fifth-most-valuable startup]( after a financing round valued it at about $20 billion.   Sponsor Content by Hewlett Packard Enterprise There’s a revolution happening in the way we live and work, and we want to help businesses like yours thrive. That’s why Hewlett Packard Enterprise is working every day to help businesses transform from what’s now to what’s next. Where your legacy IT may once have forced you to say No, Hybrid IT from [HPE]( can help you say Yes to bigger and better opportunities.   You received this message because you are subscribed to the Bloomberg Technology newsletter Fully Charged. You can tell your friends to [sign up here](.  [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022

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