Ukraine’s D-Day

Speculation is raging over whether Ukraine has launched its long-promised counteroffensive. [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Speculation is raging over whether Ukraine has launched its long-promised counteroffensive against Moscow’s forces to retake occupied territory. Control is shifting on a stretch of the frontline around the eastern city of Bakhmut, with Kyiv saying its troops overran invaders’ positions in the suburbs in a potential pincer movement, while Russian reinforcements backed by artillery push deeper into the town’s center. Key Reading: [Ukraine Needs More Than a $30 Billion Arsenal to Strike Back]( [Ukraine Recap: China’s Envoy Expected in Kyiv, Talks on Grain]( [China Envoy Begins Ukraine Mission as Xi Aims to Play Peacemaker]( [Germany Sees End in Sight for Putin’s “Imperialism” in Russia]( [Ukraine Says It Defeated ‘Exceptional’ Russian Missile Blitz]( But that probably isn’t the big thrust everyone is waiting for. Instead, the battle for a tiny part of the more than 600-mile frontline is part of a much larger operation involving tens of thousands of troops and billions of dollars in weapons from Ukraine’s allies. Two main lines of attack are likely — one in eastern Ukraine and another in the southeastern Zaporizhzhia region, to break Russia’s land connection with its forces in Crimea. In Kyiv’s big counterattack last year around the cities of Kharkiv and Kherson, it showed textbook execution of how to launch an offensive. It starts with a period of training and equipping units, which Ukraine has been doing for months. Next come operations that military analysts call “shaping the battlefield” — strikes against command centers, supply lines and assembly points, as well as potential cyber and disinformation campaigns to sow chaos and degrade the enemy’s ability to react. At the same time, probing attacks reveal weaknesses and put the enemy off guard. But with Ukraine trying to maintain the element of surprise, it might not be obvious when the main attack starts. In Russia, there’s a mood of despair among nationalist commentators after a winter of high casualties and little progress. Some muse openly about looming defeat, accusing top military leaders of incompetence and treachery, even as Moscow steps up missile barrages on Ukrainian targets. None of this means a sure win for Ukraine. Russia’s inability to break through in Bakhmut underscores the challenge Kyiv’s forces face against Moscow’s dug-in troops. And even if the counteroffensive succeeds, the war will probably still have a long way to run. [— Michael Winfrey]( Ukrainian soldiers fire a cannon near Bakhmut on Monday. Source: LIBKOS/AP Photo Check out the latest [Washington Edition newsletter](. You can [sign up]( now to get it in your inbox every weekday. And if you are enjoying this newsletter, sign up [here](. Global Headlines Group of Seven leaders preparing to meet in Japan from tomorrow plan to focus on efforts to counter China and Russia’s influence in strategic third nations. As [this deep analysis]( explains, what the G-7 and European Union call a “battle of offers” is about to intensify, with a series of international summits that will highlight the next phase of great-power rivalry. - Check out our Big Take Podcast on what to watch out for at the meeting. You can listen [here](, on [Apple]( and [Spotify](. US debt-ceiling talks between White House and congressional aides [are set to intensify]( as negotiators seek a framework agreement for Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy to review upon the president’s return from a truncated trip to Asia. The Treasury Department is warning that the nation faces the disastrous prospect of default as soon as June 1. - A failure to fully fund the government for next year [would benefit China]( by hobbling the US’s ability to compete with its chief adversary, three senior Biden administration officials told a Senate panel. The world’s largest economies boosted policies to fight climate change despite last year’s energy crisis, [allaying fears]( that cutting emissions would be pushed down the priority list. Most Group of 20 countries backed regulations that support the transition to renewables, yet the group as a whole is still far from addressing the climate crisis comprehensively, according to a report by BloombergNEF. Thailand’s Move Forward Party, which has staked its claim to lead a government after emerging as the single-largest party in Sunday’s election, will hold [talks with coalition]( partners today as it struggles to win enough support from the influential Senate. It will be the first meeting between leaders of the pro-democracy groups after sweeping an election that saw the defeat of parties aligned with the pro-military establishment. - Former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra said Pheu Thai, the party he supported, [won’t back any action]( that could harm the monarchy after it agreed to participate in the coalition. Best of Bloomberg Opinion - [In Ukraine, Technology Spreads the Fog of War: Leonid Bershidsky]( - [Don’t Worry, Food Prices Will Stop Going Up Soon: Andrea Felsted]( - [Pursuing Peace, Kishida Must Also Prepare for War: Gearoid Reidy]( Demand for air conditioners is surging in markets where both incomes and temperatures [are rising](, like India, China, Indonesia and the Philippines. By one estimate, the world will add 1 billion ACs before the end of the decade. While that’s good for measures of public health and economic productivity, the race against heat is adding to the problem of global warming. - A key EU law on scaling up renewable energy by 2030 has been delayed amid [last-minute wrangling]( over the role of nuclear power, fueling concern over the bloc’s green deal. Explainers You Can Use - [What’s the ‘Quad’ and Should China Fear It?]( - [Wall Street's Biggest Banks Face a Harsh Reality Check in China]( - [The Green Energy Transition Has a Chilean Copper Problem]( Kim Jong Un visited a facility assembling North Korea’s maiden spy satellite, indicating the state could soon conduct its first [space rocket launch]( in about seven years. The nation’s leader was accompanied by his preteen daughter to inspect the “military reconnaissance satellite No. 1 which is ready for loading,” the official Korean Central News Agency reported today. The device is designed to monitor US forces and their allies in Asia. Tune in to Bloomberg TV’s Balance of Power at 5pm to 6pm ET weekdays with Washington correspondents [Annmarie Hordern]( and [Joe Mathieu](. You can watch and listen on Bloomberg channels and online [here](. News to Note - Indonesian authorities detained Minister of Communication and Information Technology Johnny Gerard Plate, following [corruption investigations]( that could lead to his resignation. - Former Pakistan Premier Imran Khan [has been summoned]( to appear before the country’s anti-graft agency tomorrow, days after its efforts to detain him were overturned in the courts. - Ecuador’s opposition-dominated National Assembly opened [an impeachment trial]( against President Guillermo Lasso in its second attempt to oust him in less than a year. - Liz Truss called on the West to [bolster support]( for Taiwan and slammed China during a visit to the self-governed island, the first by a former British prime minister in almost three decades. - Japan’s economy expanded at a faster pace than expected, an outcome that will likely keep [speculation simmering]( of a possible early election. And finally … Pedro Tonito says he could no longer bear to watch his young daughter cry from hunger or his teenager go without meals. Venezuela had effectively collapsed, finding work was impossible and he and his wife Adriana knew they had to flee. Read [Nadia Lopez](’s account of the family’s perilous [six-month journey]( to reach the US, traveling through swamps and raging rivers, surviving machete-wielding gangs and threats of extortion, knowing all the time they could be turned away at the border. Mariana, 16, Fernanda, 5, and their mother, Adriana, 39, on top of a cargo train heading toward Ciudad Juarez on April 4. Photographer: Nicolo Filippo Rosso/Bloomberg Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Bloomberg Politics newsletter. 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