Warning shots

Voters in Thailand, India and Turkey sent their long-time rulers a message [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Entrenched political establishments in Thailand, India and Turkey were sent a warning shot by voters yesterday. Nearly a decade of military-backed rule in Thailand may be about to end after the upstart Move Forward party led by 42-year-old Pita Limjaroenrat outperformed pre-election expectations, nearly sweeping Bangkok and winning the most seats in the next parliament. Key Reading: - [Thai Pro-Democracy Groups Dominate Vote in Rebuke of Military]( - [The Harvard Alumnus Behind Reformist Party Leading Thai Election]( - [Turkey Poised for Runoff Vote as Erdogan Under Threshold]( - [Lira Traders Brace for Volatility as Turkey Heads to Runoff]( - [What Gandhi’s Rare Win Over Modi Means for India’s 2024 Vote]( Vowing to build a coalition with other pro-democracy parties, Move Forward still has to negotiate a delicate relationship with the more conservative groups centered around the monarchy. Thailand’s constitution gives the military-appointed Senate a key role in choosing the next government, so Pita is moving quickly to claim a broad mandate for change. Indian opposition leader Rahul Gandhi’s Congress party won a crucial state election, boosting its chances of unseating Prime Minister Narendra Modi in a national vote next year. Though Congress still faces a long road ahead, the victory in Karnataka was one of the most significant since Modi took power nearly a decade ago. In Turkey, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan confronted one of the biggest electoral tests of his two decades in power, with voters denying him a quick first-round victory. After more than 98% of the ballots were counted, Erdogan looked set to face rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu in a runoff. Kilicdaroglu ran on a promise to restore the rule of law, mend strained ties with the West and return to economic orthodoxy — and was backed by a broad coalition of opposition groups chafing at Erdogan’s strong-armed rule. Investors reacted cautiously to the results of the two national elections. Thailand’s main stock market index fell while, in Turkey, investors were already betting on the lira to weaken. But market uncertainty couldn’t mask the message delivered at the ballot box. Amid turbulent economic times and rising international political volatility, voters showed increasing impatience with leaders seeking to sustain their tight grip on power. — [Bill Faries]( Erdogan at his party’s headquarters in Ankara early on May 15. Photographer: Burak Kara/Getty Images Check out the [latest Washington Edition]( newsletter. [Sign up now]( to get it in your inbox every weekday. And if you are enjoying this newsletter, sign up [here](. Global Headlines The world’s wealthy nations presented a united front in [condemning Russia’s invasion]( of Ukraine and pledging more support for Kyiv after three days of talks in Niigata, Japan. While China didn’t get a direct mention in the 14-page statement from Group of Seven finance ministers, there were thinly veiled plans to counter its dominance of supply chains and growing sway over countries in the Global South. The UK pledged to send Ukraine hundreds of air-defense missiles and attack drones with a range of more than 120 miles (193 kilometers) as President Volodymyr Zelenskiy made an [unannounced trip]( to London to meet Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. Zelenskiy earlier visited the leaders of France, Germany and Italy on a tour that secured promises of more military aid before Kyiv launches a counterattack aiming to expel Russian forces. - Read more of our rolling coverage of the war in Ukraine [here](. [Teachers]( and [doctors]( in England began voting on proposals for further strikes, piling pressure on the UK government after widespread protests over below-inflation pay raises swept across the public sector. The Centre for Economics and Business Research estimated the walkouts cost the economy £243 million ($303 million) in the first quarter, mostly driven by the education sector. The US Border Patrol saw a 50% drop in the number of migrants seeking to cross into American territory compared with last week, the head of homeland security said yesterday, offering some political [relief]( for President Joe Biden. The expiry of pandemic-era restrictions known as Title 42 had been expected to prompt a surge in crossings over the southern border. Best of Bloomberg Opinion - [Ukraine Shows Wars Are Won by Strategy Not Power: Hal Brands]( - [The Second Amendment Allows a Ban on the AR-15: Noah Feldman]( - [Iran’s Tanker Seizures Imperil Gulf Oil Supply: James Stavridis]( Palestinian militants said they remained committed to a truce with Israel despite an exchange of fire sparked by an [accidental]( missile firing that marred hours of quiet achieved by an Egyptian-brokered cease-fire agreement. Hostilities flared briefly after a single rocket launched at Israel from the Gaza Strip was followed by an Israeli airstrike on military outposts belonging to the militant Islamic group Hamas. Explainers You Can Use - [Trump Changed the Rules to Make Winning the Nomination Easier]( - [Ukraine Plans Its Green Reconstruction Even as War Rages On]( - [Fires Rage in Canada’s Oil Heartland Amid Weekend Heat Wave]( Argentina’s beleaguered authorities are set to unveil a set of [emergency]( measures today to try and get a grip on currency losses as inflation spirals out of control in an election year, sources say. The steps include an increase of 600 basis points in the benchmark interest rate to 97%, while boosting intervention in the foreign exchange market to contain a selloff in the peso, [Patrick Gillespie]( reports. Tune in to Bloomberg TV’s Balance of Power at 5pm to 6pm ET weekdays with Washington correspondents [Annmarie Hordern]( and [Joe Mathieu](. You can watch and listen on Bloomberg channels and online [here](. News to Note - Biden, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and other congressional leaders are planning to meet tomorrow to discuss the debt ceiling to avoid a [US default](. - French President Emmanuel Macron invited about 200 global business leaders to Versailles today, showcasing his foreign investment pulling power as he attempts to [reboot]( his second term in office. - Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats [retained control]( of the city-state of Bremen, ending a string of setbacks in German regional elections. - China has sentenced a 78-year-old US passport holder to life in prison on [spying charges](, as the world’s second-biggest economy prioritizes eliminating national security risks. - South Africa resolved a dispute with the US over allegations that Pretoria supplied weapons to Russia and is unlikely to face any [repercussions](, Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana said yesterday. Thanks to the 74 people who answered our Friday quiz and congratulations to Beverly Larson, who was the first to name Syria as the country the Arab League voted unanimously to readmit despite strong US opposition. And finally ... Since Russia invaded Ukraine, Anna Korobkova says she has spent her days [informing]( on her fellow citizens by writing 1,013 ‘donosy’ to the authorities. The Russian word for denunciations is a term fraught with years of history of informers going back even before the rule of Soviet dictator Josef Stalin. Korobkova is perhaps the most prolific example of a growing number of Russians who are joining in the Kremlin’s crackdown on critics of the war. Police officers detain a demonstrator against the partial mobilization announced by President Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg in 2022. Photographer: Olga Maltseva/AFP/Getty Images Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Bloomberg Politics newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox. [Unsubscribe]( [Bloomberg.com]( [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington Avenue, New York, NY 10022 [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( [Ad Choices](