A pivotal election

Turkey’s 64 million voters have a clear choice in Sunday’s election. [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Half the Turkish population is too young to have a clear memory of any other leader than President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Over two decades, he has reshaped the country through seeking to assert the role of Islam in society and championing Turkey’s hard power abroad. In Sunday’s presidential election, the fate of the Erdogan era will be very much in the balance. Key Reading: - [Erdogan Teeters Before Turkey Vote That’s Got the World Watching]( - [Turnout Reaches Record for Turkish Diaspora in Nail-Biter Ballot]( - [Erdogan Challenger Vows to Probe Turkey Bourse, Economy Data]( - [Turkish Opposition Leader Blames Russians for Vote Meddling]( - [Washington Is Watching Turkey’s Election—So Is Moscow (Podcast)]( Opposition parties from across the political spectrum have united to try and defeat Erdogan, blaming him for Turkey’s ailing economy, an erosion of civil freedoms and the government’s inadequate response to February’s earthquakes that killed over 50,000 people. Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leading challenger, is the antithesis of Erdogan, contrasting his vision of a more democratic and united Turkey with Erdogan’s increasingly authoritarian rule and often divisive rhetoric. He has projected an image of modesty in juxtaposition to Erdogan’s 1,000-room presidential complex that Kilicdaroglu promises to turn into “a museum of squandering” if he’s elected. The outcome will have global implications. Erdogan has cultivated strong ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin, prompting volatility in relations with allies like the US, and stirred trouble in NATO by stalling Sweden’s bid to join the military alliance. He has enjoyed flexing diplomatic muscle, attempting to place Turkey as a mediator in Russia’s war on Ukraine and helping broker a deal enabling vital Black Sea grain exports to ease global food prices. Kilicdaroglu, who yesterday accused a Russian group of meddling in the vote, promises a “180 degree switch” in foreign policy aimed at improving ties with the West as well as neighbors like Syria. Still, Turks are more consumed by domestic issues including a severe cost-of-living crisis that has made onions a hot-button issue for Kilicdaroglu’s campaign, which claims prices of the vegetable will triple if Erdogan wins. Now it’s for Turkey’s 64 million voters to decide in the most important election in a generation. — [Beril Akman]( Erdogan at an election campaign rally in Istanbul on Sunday. Photographer: Moe Zoyari/Bloomberg Click [here]( for this week’s most compelling political images, and if you are enjoying this newsletter, sign up [here](. Check out the latest on the debate over banking regulation in the [Washington Edition]( newsletter. [Sign up now]( to get it in your inbox every weekday. Global Headlines US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan held two days of [talks]( with China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, in a sign the sides are working to maintain lines of communication and ease tensions. The meetings that wrapped up yesterday in Vienna touched on issues including Russia’s war on Ukraine and managing strains over Taiwan, the White House said, setting the scene for a possible call between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Pakistan’s police may try to arrest Imran Khan at the Islamabad High Court where he’s seeking bail in a land graft case, signaling [the confrontation]( between the former premier and the current administration and the army is far from over. The political crisis threatens to tip the already troubled economy into further distress. While many of the fortunes forged during the Covid-19 pandemic have long since crumbled, a $95 billion boom among a small group of wealthy shipping tycoons has prevailed. That’s spurred [a mad dash]( to invest and diversify, but their options are narrowing by the day. China is stepping up efforts to find a [diplomatic resolution]( to Putin’s war by sending a special envoy to Ukraine and Russia starting Monday. Li Hui, a former ambassador to Moscow and now special representative for Eurasian Affairs, will also visit Poland, France and Germany. The trip comes as Xi looks to bolster his image as a global peacemaker. - President Cyril Ramaphosa instituted an inquiry into US allegations that South Africa [supplied weapons]( and ammunition to Russia despite Pretoria having taken a neutral stance on the war. Best of Bloomberg Opinion - [Multibillion-Dollar Disasters Are the New Normal: Mark Gongloff]( - [Google Is in Too Much of a Hurry on AI Search: Parmy Olson]( - [Biden Shouldn’t Let Chad Become Another Sudan: Bobby Ghosh]( While violence raged in other parts of Sudan over the years, residents in the capital had lived largely peacefully. [Simon Marks]( and [Mohammed Alamin]( explain how that all changed on April 15 when the militia that once drew international condemnation for its [bloody campaign](in the western region of Darfur entrenched itself in a close-quarter battle for Khartoum against the Sudanese Armed Forces. - Sudan’s army and the rival paramilitary group signed an agreement to [protect civilians]( and facilitate the delivery of humanitarian aid. Battles rage in Khartoum on April 28. Source: AFP Explainers You Can Use - [How End of Title 42 Complicates Biden’s Border Policy]( - [Why Gaza Is Epicenter of Israeli-Palestinian Conflict]( - [Electric Bicycles Break Through in Europe’s Carmaking Capital]( Cracking down on drugs and violence is how former security minister Patricia Bullrich is best known in Argentina. Now she’s trying to convert that steely reputation into votes for the presidency in elections later this year. [Read]( how Bullrich — “a bit wild,” in her own words — aims to steer her country away from an economic precipice. The Big Take podcast looks at why the White House is bracing for a surge of migrants crossing the southern US border with Mexico. Listen [here](, on [Apple]( and [Spotify](. News to Note - Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy [postponed]( their meeting on the debt ceiling set for today as their aides continue negotiations toward avoiding a catastrophic US default. - Group of Seven finance chiefs are set to propose a new [partnership]( on supply chains that’ll be open to other nations if they meet minimum standards on human rights and environmental policies. - Thailand’s army chief said there was “zero chance” of the Southeast Asian nation returning to [military rule]( in the event of post-election turmoil as politicians make a final push to woo voters ahead of Sunday’s vote. - A Philippine court acquitted former Senator Leila de Lima for one of her two remaining drug cases, a [key win]( that puts ex-President Rodrigo Duterte’s staunch critic closer to ending her six-year detention. - UK lawmakers are opening an inquiry into the [influence]( of supermarkets and manufacturers on food prices as Britons struggle with an enduring cost-of-living crisis. Pop quiz (no cheating!) Which country did the Arab League vote unanimously to readmit despite strong US opposition? Send your answers to balancepower@bloomberg.net. And finally ... Back in late February, two giant tankers came together in international waters about 40 miles east of Ceuta, the Spanish exclave at the northern tip of Morocco, for a ship-to-ship transfer of Russian oil. One of more than a [hundred such maneuvers]( since Putin’s invasion of Ukraine triggered global sanctions against Moscow, read how it offered a real-time glimpse into a network of new and often faceless intermediaries and vessel owners. Source: Bloomberg Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Bloomberg Politics newsletter. 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