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US debt-ceiling talks yield little progress, markets get fed up with planning for a US default, and Donald Trump is found liable for sexual [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( US debt-ceiling talks yield little progress, markets get fed up with planning for a US default, and Donald Trump is found liable for sexual assault. — [Liza Tetley]( Debt ceiling The saga over the[US debt-ceiling continues without resolution, after President Joe Biden and congressional Republicans made little progress yesterday in talks](, with the White House saying it will only accept a “clean” no-strings-attached debt limit increase. The President did agree to negotiate on the budget levels for fiscal 2024, however. Biden said he expects the “posturing, politics and gamesmanship” to continue for a while, but intensified negotiations around spending could calm markets ahead of June 1, when Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says the US risks exhausting its ability to meet its payment obligations. Treasury-bill yields have crept higher, but investors are banking on a deal being reached. Frustrated traders Meanwhile, frustration is building among [Wall Street traders, who have said the long-term implications of a US default would be “unthinkable,”]( and argue that the debt limit may need to be repealed entirely. Current and former leaders of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, which includes executives from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, sent a letter to Janet Yellen calling for an urgent increase to the debt limit and permanent solution, saying the standoff was costing financial firms time and effort in contingency planning. Goldman Sachs co-head of global financing, Beth Hammack, also cited “the real risk to the US dollar” in an interview with Bloomberg TV on Tuesday. Trump abuse Former President[Donald Trump has been found liable for sexual abuse and forcible touching of author E. Jean Carroll](, who accused him of attacking her in the dressing room of a Fifth Avenue department store in the 1990s and then harming her reputation by saying she’d fabricated the story when she went public with her account in 2019. Trump has been mandated to pay her $5 million in damages, $3 million of which for defamation. The trial brings fresh attention on Trump’s fraught history with women as he embarks on another run for the White House. Cautious markets Contracts on the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 are lower this morning, down 0.2% and 0.1% respectively as of 5:45 a.m. in New York, as traders grow cautious ahead of key inflation data later today. Short-dated Treasuries are falling, as worries around the debt ceiling deadline circulate, but longer-term maturities are edging higher. A measure of the dollar is strengthening a little, set for a third day of gains, while oil snaps a three-day rally, falling as traders digested a mixed report on supplies from an industry group. Gold loses momentum as traders pause for clues on monetary policy. Iron ore bounces and copper declines. Coming up… It’s a key day for data. Up first we have MBA mortgage applications at 7:00 a.m., after which there’s that all-important April inflation print at 8:30 a.m. Following that, the EIA US oil inventories figures are due at 10:30 a.m. The US is also due to sell $36 billion 17-week bills at 11:30 a.m. and $35 billion 10-year notes at 1:00 p.m. President Biden will speak at 1:30 p.m. on why Congress must avoid debt default, and lastly, we’ll get the April budget statement at 2:00 p.m. Earnings today include Disney, First Citizens, Groupon, Robinhood, Beyond Meat. Is this year's debt-limit standoff going to be as bad as the one in 2011? Which asset is a buy if the US fails to meet its debt obligations? Share your views on our latest MLIV Pulse [survey](. What we’ve been reading Here’s what caught our eye over the past 24 hours: - The [European Central Bank still has more ground to cover](bbg://news/stories/RUFQ03DWX2PS) according to President Christine Lagarde - [Ukraine’s crop shipments are being throttled]( by cargo restrictions and disruptions to vessel inspections - [China’s national security crackdown]( is roiling the vast industry helping global investors understand the country - Representative [George Santos has been indicted on federal charges]( over possible campaign finance violations - Two major Wall Street trading desks agree on one thing: [US stocks will rally on any soft inflation print Wednesday]( - [Wages for new job starters across England surged 10%]( in the past year - How [William Burns has amassed influence beyond most if not all previous C.I.A. directors](bbg://news/stories/RUF9LGTP3SHS) And finally, here’s what Joe’s interested in this morning Hello and Happy CPI Day. Economists are looking for a 0.4% sequential increase for both core and headline CPI, which will be released In a way, this number feels less eventful than some past numbers have. The Fed has already indicated a possible pause at the upcoming June meeting. There are also other concerns out there at the moment, including a slowdown in economic momentum, the debt ceiling fight, and the unresolved turmoil at the major banks. So one CPI report may not prove to be decisive either way. That being said, every time the CPI report comes out, people will slice and dice it in a bunch of different ways. For a while now the Fed has been very focused on non-shelter services, so that seems like a good place to start looking, to see if there are any further signs of easing there. Cars, particularly used cars, continue to be a trouble spot. While headline inflation is perhaps less important these days, it's worth remembering that oil has been particularly weak in recent weeks. More broadly, various measure of inflation have been drifting lower after having peaked last year, so the question is whether the lines generally continue to go in the right direction. The other thing to bear in mind is that while there is talk (or hope?) of a pause or an end to the rate hike cycle, there's still good arguments to be made that economic activity remains shockingly resilient. Last week, the jobs report came in way better than expected, with the unemployment rate falling to a 70-year low. There are plenty of signs that, outside a few pockets of weakness, US consumers continue to be in an active mood. And housing activity is still shockingly brisk, given where mortgage rates jumped to over the last year. So setting aside today and setting aside a June pause, if you accept the premise that the economy has to slow down for inflation to keep declining, you could argue that ultimately the Fed will have to do more work. Follow Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal on Twitter [@TheStalwart]( Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Five Things to Start Your Day: Americas Edition newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox. [Unsubscribe]( [Bloomberg.com]( [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington Avenue, New York, NY 10022 [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( [Ad Choices](