Putin’s holiday missile barrage

Russia steps up strikes against Ukraine as Kyiv prepares counteroffensive. [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( The Kremlin since Soviet times has often celebrated International Labor Day under the slogan of “Peace, Labor, May.” The Foreign Ministry in Moscow did so again today on Twitter even as Russia marked the May 1 holiday by raining cruise missiles on cities in Ukraine. If the Orwellian double-think indicates President Vladimir Putin’s approach to justifying his invasion, Russia’s resumption of large-scale strikes at Ukrainian cities may reflect apprehension about Ukraine’s looming counteroffensive. Key Reading: - [Eastern Europe Is Jeopardizing Ukraine’s Economic Lifeline]( - [Wagner’s Prigozhin Warns He’s Ready to Withdraw From Bakhmut]( - [EU Considers More Ammunition-Spending Leeway in New Fiscal Rules]( - [Russia Strikes Across Ukraine as Kyiv Says New Offensive Nears]( - Follow our [rolling coverage]( of the war.  Ukraine claimed it shot down most of the Russian missiles, a measure of improved air defenses thanks to systems supplied by its US and European allies. That comes after a winter in which Russia systematically tried and failed to destroy Ukrainian energy infrastructure to break public morale. The battlefields are rapidly drying out following the spring thaw and both sides anticipate potentially decisive confrontations. Ukraine has trained thousands of troops and amassed tanks and other armor from its allies for the offensive, aiming to push Russian forces out of its eastern and southern territories. Russia made hardly any winter gains. In Bakhmut, where fighting has raged for months, the Wagner mercenary group leader has threatened to withdraw because of ammunition shortages. Success for Ukraine would swing momentum Kyiv’s way in future peace talks. But failure would hand the advantage to Putin, particularly if the US and European election calendar indicates any public fatigue with the cost of aiding Ukraine. A ban on Ukrainian grain imports by Poland and other eastern European states last month amid anger among farmers over a collapse in prices underlines the pressures facing governments even in Ukraine’s staunchest allies. Russia next marks the May 9 Victory Day holiday for the end of World War II with Putin presiding over a Red Square military parade. He has sought, however implausibly, to convince Russians they’re facing a similarly epic struggle now. The risk facing Putin in the months ahead is that it’s hard to appear victorious if Ukraine is forcing his military to retreat. Rescuers search for survivors in the rubble of a residential building hit by Russian missile strikes in Uman on Friday. Photographer: Sergei Supinsky/AFP/Getty Images Understand power in Washington through the lens of business, government and the economy. [Sign up]( for the new Bloomberg Washington Edition newsletter delivered weekdays. And if you are enjoying this newsletter, sign up [here](. Global Headlines Escalating tensions with China form the backdrop of today’s meeting between US President Joe Biden and his Philippine counterpart, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., at the White House. As [Andreo Calonzo]( writes, it’s expected to lead to [broader economic partnerships]( and even greater defense ties between the two nations. - The US accused China of [harassing]( Philippine ships and reaffirmed its defense commitment ahead of Marcos’s visit. - Singapore’s top diplomat expressed [“grave concern”]( over altercations in the South China Sea following a near collision between Chinese and Philippine vessels. France is bracing for Labor Day demonstrations that aim to reignite pressure on President Emmanuel Macron over the unpopular pension reform that he signed into law last month. A wave of protests and strikes has waned in recent weeks, but labor unions and left-wing parties are betting on [popular resentment]( against the measure that raises the retirement age to 64 from 62 to revive the movement. Regional stability is under threat from the conflict in Sudan as [neighboring countries struggle]( with an influx of refugees fleeing the fighting and the presence of armed rebels at their borders. As [Katarina Hoije]( reports, the danger is that ethnic militias, anti-government insurgencies, paramilitary groups and Russian mercenaries operating in porous, mineral-rich frontier areas could use the crisis to launch attacks or foment rebellions. Best of Bloomberg Opinion - [Leak Shows America’s Spies Are Losing Their Edge: Max Hastings]( - [Spain’s Heatflation Will Burn Our Wallets: Lara Williams]( - [The Pure Evil Behind Europe’s Migration Crisis: Andreas Kluth]( Paraguay’s ruling party candidate, Santiago Pena, won yesterday’s presidential election, as his Colorado Party secured a [third straight mandate]( in the South American country. He pledged to maintain Paraguay’s alliance with Taiwan. The main challenger, Efrain Alegre, who led a coalition of leftists and conservatives, conceded defeat, as an anti-establishment candidate spoiled his chances by taking almost a quarter of the vote. Pena celebrates his victory in Asuncion yesterday. Photographer: Santi Carneri/Bloomberg [​]( Explainers You Can Use - [Why Marcos Is Inviting the US Back to the Philippines]( - [One of the World’s Lithium Leaders Looks Like a Shakier Source]( - [Tech, AI Driving Job Changes for Nearly a Quarter of All Workers]( Thailand’s main opposition party, Pheu Thai, holds a significant lead over its political rivals, putting it in [prime position]( to win the May 14 general elections. The vote is shaping up to be a battle between the pro-establishment groups of the ruling military-backed coalition and a pro-democracy camp of opposition parties. Tune in to Bloomberg TV’s Balance of Power at 5pm to 6pm ET weekdays with Washington correspondents [Annmarie Hordern]( and [Joe Mathieu](. You can watch and listen on Bloomberg channels and online [here](. News to Note - Support for Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s cabinet rose to more than 50% in a Nikkei newspaper poll for the first time in eight months, [fueling speculation]( he could call an early general election. - Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva raised the [monthly minimum wage](, as his administration seeks to balance higher social spending with keeping the growth of public debt under control. - Republican US Senator Tim Scott said he’ll make an announcement on “the final step” about his expected [run for the White House]( on May 22. - The extra holiday for King Charles III’s coronation is set [to drag down]( what otherwise may be gathering momentum in the UK economy. Thanks to the 40 people who answered our Friday quiz and congratulations to Daniele Ferrara, who was the first to name South Africa as the country whose president walked back an earlier statement that his government plans to withdraw from the International Criminal Court. And finally ... News websites generated by AI chatbots [are proliferating online](, the news-rating group NewsGuard said in a report today. Some have generic-sounding names like News Live 79 and Daily Business Post, while others share lifestyle tips, celebrity information or sponsored content. None disclose they’re populated using AI chatbots such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT and potentially Alphabet’s Google Bard, which can generate detailed text based on simple user prompts. The ChatGPT chat screen on a smartphone. Photographer: Gabby Jones/Bloomberg Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. 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