Erdogan’s election battle

Elections in Turkey may open the door to a future without President Erdogan. [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( After falling ill during a live television interview last night, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan canceled three campaign speeches and will rest at home on the advice of his doctors. While aides to Erdogan, 69, dismissed the health issue as minor, the incident comes comes ahead of an election when even his most ardent loyalists are contemplating a future without him for the first time in 20 years. Key Reading: - [Erdogan’s Followers Reconsider Their Loyalties as Election Looms]( - [Erdogan Live Interview Cut Short After Brief Off-Camera Illness]( - [Turkey’s Micromanager-in-Chief Faces Test of His Political Life]( - [Why Turkey’s Election Is a Big Test for Erdogan]( Under his leadership, the Islamist-leaning AKP won big in elections in the aftermath of a devastating 2001 earthquake and economic crisis. The former Istanbul mayor was credited with getting Turkey back on its feet and transforming it into an economic power with a mix of cheap loans and business-friendly investment. Two decades later, as he contests another presidential vote due on May 14, he’s the one accused of mounting a lackluster response to this year’s twin earthquakes in the southeast, a conservative, rural region that was once a bedrock of AKP support. Erdogan’s obsession with low borrowing rates has been failing for years. Foreign investors have fled, the currency has seen precipitous drops in value and inflation has been at 20-year highs for months — hitting the AKP’s working-class electoral base the hardest. And he has alienated colleagues who helped craft those early economic successes by concentrating power in the presidency. That creeping authoritarianism has raised alarms among critics who say it has undermined Turkey’s democratic foundations. His foreign policy zigzags, including closer military ties with Russia, have created rifts with the West. Yet, a NATO member and — at least on paper — European Union aspirant, Turkey wields enormous influence because of its position as a bridge between Europe and Asia. Though his popularity has been declining for years, Erdogan has clung on in part because the opposition was weak and divided, and no clear alternative emerged. This time, opposition parties have rallied around a joint challenger for the presidency, Kemal Kilicdaroglu. That’s left voters, including longtime Erdogan supporters made homeless by the earthquakes, pondering if it’s time to move on. — [Lin Noueihed]( WATCH: Why Erdogan Faces a Close Race in Turkey’s Election Listen to our Twitter Space discussion today at 8am ET (1pm CET) on the geopolitical and commodities impact of the [conflict in Sudan]( for key Gulf countries and the US. [Sign up]( for the new Bloomberg Washington Edition newsletter delivered weekdays. And if you are enjoying this newsletter, sign up [here](. Global Headlines The US is learning valuable lessons for a possible conflict with China from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, from the need to build a steady ammunition pipeline to innovation in space, the [Pentagon’s No. 2 official]( said in an interview. “There are many advantages we’ve gained for a potential Pacific challenge from the Ukraine conflict,” Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks said. - President Joe Biden and his South Korean counterpart Yoon Suk Yeol will announce a deal today to [strengthen the deterrence]( Washington provides against nuclear threats, securing a pledge in return from Seoul to honor commitments to not pursue its own atomic arsenal. There’s growing chaos at Sudan’s borders as residents flee violence, with United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres calling for an [urgent deescalation]( in fighting between the army and a rival paramilitary group. International efforts to end the crisis have intensified, though diplomats have yet to convince army leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, head of the paramilitary RSF, to agree to talks, sources say. US companies in China are [increasingly pessimistic]( about the relationship between Washington and Beijing as geopolitical tensions escalate, although they have a more favorable view of the nation’s economic recovery, a new survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in China shows. It called on both countries to prioritize “high-level engagement” to address concerns about their deteriorating relationship. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa walked back an earlier statement that the country plans to withdraw from the International Criminal Court, as authorities [grapple]( with how to handle a potential visit by Russian leader Vladimir Putin for a BRICS group summit in August. The government is taking legal advice on dealing with an ICC arrest warrant for Putin and is considering various options to sidestep its obligation to detain him, if he were to come. Best of Bloomberg Opinion - [Attacking Judges Is No Way to Run a Country: Matthew Brooker]( - [Biden Goes Old School While Republicans Go AI: Jessica Karl]( - [Russian TV Isn’t Tucker Carlson’s Dream Job: Leonid Bershidsky]( Colombian President Gustavo Petro is signaling a [surprise]( cabinet shakeup to try and kick start his reform agenda after a rocky few months in office. Colombia’s first leftist president is attempting to overhaul the nation’s conservative economic model by boosting worker rights and increasing the state’s role in health care and providing prensions, but he’s faced stiff opposition in congress and even from among his cabinet. Explainers You Can Use - [Natural Gas Ban in Oregon City Ignites Industry Counterattack]( - [Heat Waves, Cyclones Are Impacting Stock Markets Across AsiaÂ]( - [Red States to Reap the Biggest Rewards From Biden’s Climate Package]( Mounting controversies prompted US Supreme Court justices to issue a statement vowing to follow “[foundational ethics]( principles and practices” while suggesting there’s no need for a formal code of conduct. The highly unusual statement isn’t likely to end what appears to be a growing clash between different branches of government over the disclosure and recusal practices of the nation’s highest court, [Greg Stohr]( reports. - Chief Justice John Roberts [refused a request]( to testify before the Senate Judiciary Committee, leaving Democrats struggling for their next move over demands for a code of conduct. Tune in to Bloomberg TV’s Balance of Power at 5pm to 6pm ET weekdays with Washington correspondents [Annmarie Hordern]( and [Joe Mathieu](. You can watch and listen on Bloomberg channels and online [here](. News to Note - Russia put two companies owned by Fortum Oyj, the Finnish state-run utility, and German utility Uniper SE under [temporary state administration]( in response to asset freezes by the US and its allies. - Singapore said it executed a man convicted of [smuggling]( one kilogram (2.2 pounds) of cannabis into the country, despite renewed criticism of its death penalty for drug traffickers. - House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is moving ahead with a vote this week on his bill linking a debt ceiling increase to spending cuts [despite deep divisions]( within his own Republican ranks that threaten to sink the measure. - The UK’s biggest food bank network distributed [more support than ever before]( in the last financial year, with December 2022 marking its busiest month on record. - China said a publisher from Taiwan is being [held and investigated]( for alleged involvement in activities that hurt national security, an event that risks worsening already fraught relations between the two sides of the strait. And finally ... In a rural part of Denmark, a cavernous warehouse holds vats of bacteria that a transatlantic corporate partnership is hoping will be [the solution]( to the cement industry’s huge emissions problem. [Willem Marx]( explains that specific types of bacteria, in the right environment, can mimic the crucial properties of Portland cement, drawing in carbon dioxide, then converting it into calcium carbonate. A technician measures newly pressed bricks.  Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Bloomberg Politics newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox. 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