Diplomatic freelancing has limits

Emmanuel Macron’s diplomatic freelancing over Russia’s invasion has hit a wall. [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( It’s not the first time Emmanuel Macron’s diplomatic freelancing has unraveled. The French president flew to Russia last year to win assurances from Vladimir Putin that he wouldn’t invade Ukraine. Two weeks later, he did just that. Macron’s latest foray, to get China to goad Russia toward some kind of cease-fire, hit a wall last week when Beijing’s ambassador to France said former Soviet states don’t have sovereign status. Key Reading: - [Macron’s Push to Get China’s Help on Ukraine Is Unraveling Fast]( - [Fury After Chinese Envoy Says Ex-Soviet States Not Sovereign]( - [Chinese Embassy Removes Interview Transcript on Ex-Soviet States]( - Follow our [rolling coverage]( of the war in Ukraine. China’s Foreign Ministry walked back those comments today, saying its position was unchanged. But Macron’s outreach to Beijing irked fellow NATO and European Union members, especially the alliances’ Baltic members, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, which endured 40-plus years of Soviet rule during the Cold War. They’ve said two things all along: You can’t negotiate with authoritarians; and while wars are usually settled at the negotiating table, they’re won on the battlefield. Also, trying to skip ahead to a cease-fire risks undermining Western unity and playing into Putin’s hands. The Russian president is betting Ukraine’s allies will suffer solidarity fatigue, and that time (abetted by a cost-of-living crisis he helped trigger that’s putting governments in Paris, London and Berlin under pressure) is on his side. For Ukrainians, the war is a matter of the very existence of their nation. Kyiv is imploring its allies to provide it with more weapons as it prepares a spring counteroffensive to expel the invaders. With military experts predicting the fighting may grind on for years, the international community has shown the limits of its effectiveness in trying to end the crisis. Case in point: The United Nations Security Council, the forum responsible for maintaining global peace, will meet in New York today with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov presiding as the rotating chair. While UN member states have repeatedly condemned Russia’s invasion, Moscow as a veto-wielding state is able to block demands to end its aggression. As long as neither side is ready to stop fighting, no amount of geopolitical showboating can overcome the nature of war: Conflicts usually don’t end until one side has had enough. — [Michael Winfrey]( Chinese President Xi Jinping and Macron at the governor of Guangdong’s residence on April 7. Photographer: Jacques Witt/AFP/Getty Images Coming Today: Understand power in Washington through the lens of business, government and the economy. [Sign up now]( for the new Bloomberg Washington Edition newsletter delivered weekdays. And if you are enjoying this newsletter, sign up [here](. Global Headlines Fighting across Sudan between the army and a paramilitary group [intensified]( today, driving thousands of people from their homes and speeding up evacuations of diplomats and foreign nationals. Residents of the capital, Khartoum, faced attacks that are closing health facilities and exacerbating shortages of water, food and fuel. Defense outlays worldwide rose to a record $2.2 trillion last year as governments respond to a [deteriorating]( global security environment, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute said today in its annual report. Spending was led by Europe due to Russia’s war in Ukraine, with military expenditure in central and western Europe back to Cold War levels. - A [stockpile]( of probably more than a million artillery shells on the Korean peninsula is drawing attention as President Yoon Suk Yeol indicates his government may be open to changing South Korean policy on providing lethal aid to Ukraine under certain conditions. - A [major]( government review of Australia’s military readiness has recommended sweeping changes to the defense forces, as the country adjusts to a rapidly changing strategic environment in the Indo-Pacific region. Most people are perfectly aware that [climate change]( is affecting their country and community right now, according to a new study of 27 opinion polls by the University of Groningen in the Netherlands. They found most respondents perceive the consequences of global warming as close in terms of physical distance and timescales and see it impacting their local areas. Most Americans don’t want to see a [rematch]( between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in next year’s US presidential election, an NBC News poll found. By a 70% to 26% margin, respondents said Biden, who sources say may announce this week that he is running, shouldn’t seek reelection, while 60% said Trump should bow out of the race. Best of Bloomberg Opinion - [The Dollar May Decline, Gradually Not Suddenly: Niall Ferguson]( - [Mosquitoes Are Poised to Swamp Our Health Systems: Lara Williams]( - [The Pacific Garbage Patch Is Now Hosting a New Threat: Faye Flam]( Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will host major UK companies and investors for talks in London today, as his government seeks to step in after the country’s leading business lobby group, the Confederation of British Industry, [suspended]( much of its operations. Dozens of firms quit the organization last week following allegations of rape and sexual misconduct against CBI staff members. Explainers You Can Use - [Climate Investors Are Looking for the Next Green Thing]( - [How Lawsuits Seek to Make Social Media Safer for Kids]( - [Subsea Fiber Cables Spark Tension Between Tech, Fishing Industry]( South Korea reinstated Japan’s preferred trading status, a [major step]( in mending ties with a long-time rival that also aligns with Washington’s efforts to create a global supply chain less reliant on China. The development is part of broader attempts by both nations to fix strained diplomatic ties, rooted in disagreements over wartime labor and compensation. Tune in to Bloomberg TV’s Balance of Power at 5pm to 6pm ET weekdays with Washington correspondents [Annmarie Hordern]( and [Joe Mathieu](. You can watch and listen on Bloomberg channels and online [here](. News to Note - Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s ruling party [eked out]( wins in four of five Japanese by-elections held yesterday, as speculation simmers over whether he will call an early general election. - Turkey and Syria’s defense and intelligence chiefs will meet in Moscow tomorrow as the two countries try to [repair ties]( long strained by Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad’s civil war. - Former Peruvian President Alejandro Toledo was [extradited]( from the US yesterday and is now set to become the third former leader of the Andean nation to be currently incarcerated. - Xi and other top leaders highlighted [several risks]( China’s economy still faces as growth rebounds this year, repeating the need for more self-reliance in key areas like technology in the face of growing US competition. - Two potential US Republican [presidential candidates](, Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, are visiting Asia this week, trips that come as the US steps up efforts to counter Chinese influence. Thanks to the 33 people who answered our Friday quiz and congratulations to Serena Pilkington, who was the first to name India as the country whose top court began landmark hearings on same-sex marriage last week. And finally ... Lisbon will become the latest European city to bar through-traffic from its city center with a three month trial later this month. However, as [Feargus O’Sullivan]( reports, the plan is being executed in a[tentative]( and under-the-radar fashion. And it’s being justified with reasons that may appeal to even the most avid devotee of the private car. Traffic in the Bairro Alto neighborhood. Photographer: Viola Lopes/Picture Alliance/Getty Images Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Bloomberg Politics newsletter. 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