A pivotal moment

Russia’s war in Ukraine may be entering a pivotal period. [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( A bomb explosion that killed a pro-Kremlin military blogger who’d cheered on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine represents another twist in the war that may be entering a pivotal period. The blast that killed Maxim Fomin in Vladimir Putin’s home city of St. Petersburg took place in a restaurant linked to Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the Wagner mercenary group that’s tried for months to seize the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut. Key Reading: - [St. Petersburg Explosion Kills Military Blogger Tatarsky]( - [Putin Signs New Russia Foreign Policy Against ‘Hostile’ West]( - [Putin’s Mercenary Prigozhin Shifts Focus After Ukraine Setbacks]( - [Putin Faces War-Crime Warrant Issued by International Court]( - Follow our rolling coverage of the war [here](. - Help us make this newsletter better by [filling out this survey](. Fomin, whose Telegram channel under the blogging name Vladlen Tatarsky had more than 570,000 followers, was among hardline voices that were highly critical of the military leadership in Moscow for repeated battlefield setbacks following a winter in which Russian troops made little progress. Other nationalists have begun openly to complain that Russia faces impending military defeat as Ukraine amasses forces and armor for a looming counteroffensive, with help from its US and European allies. A Ukrainian breakthrough on anything like the scale of last year, when it reclaimed the northern Kharkiv region and the southern city of Kherson, would likely ratchet up tensions further between rival factions in Russia over responsibility for a failing war. With Russia assuming the rotating chairmanship of the United Nations Security Council on April 1 for a month, the world’s principal diplomatic forum remains sidelined in the conflict. China’s peace initiative isn’t gaining any traction. When Putin announced in September that Russia was annexing four Ukrainian regions, even as it didn’t fully control them, a jubilant Tatarsky was among those present at the Kremlin. “We will defeat everyone, we will kill everyone, we will rob everyone who needs to be robbed,” the blogger declared in a video on social media. “Everything will be the way we like it.” Now Ukraine is gearing up to regain more occupied territory, Putin is an accused war criminal and Tatarsky is dead. Moscow blamed the assassination on Ukraine. Regardless of who bears responsibility, as so often since Putin launched the invasion, it seems everything isn’t going as Russia expected. Tatarsky speaks during a party before the explosion that killed him on Sunday. Source: AP Photo Coming Soon: Understand power in Washington through the lens of business, government and the economy. [Sign up now]( for the new Bloomberg Washington Edition newsletter delivered weekdays. And if you are enjoying this newsletter, sign up [here](. Global Headlines Oil tensions | The OPEC+ oil cartel announced a [surprise]( cut in production of more than 1 million barrels a day, again pitting Saudi Arabia against US interests. The decision by OPEC+, which includes Russia, reneges on previous assurances that it would hold supply steady and poses new inflation risks for the global economy, with crude [soaring]( on the news. - The White House said the move was ill-advised. But read how President Joe Biden’s options to do anything about it are [limited](. Ratcheting tensions | The US, South Korea and Japan started [joint naval drills]( off the Korean Peninsula in a move that further angered North Korea, which fired a missile over Japan when similar exercises were held last year. Kim Jong Un’s regime has pledged an unprecedented response to the drills and rolled out new weapons designed to deliver nuclear strikes on the US and the two allies, which host the bulk of American troops in the region. Poland and other neighboring states agreed to help get grain out of Ukraine and on to global markets after the Russian invasion blocked exports last year. But now [anger is mounting]( among farmers in eastern Europe who say a rush glut of grain from Ukraine threatens their businesses, and it’s steadily eroding political goodwill. Green subsidies | Washington’s protectionist agenda is causing anxiety in Brussels, where European Union chiefs worry that massive US subsidies for green technology could lead to an exodus of clean energy investment and encourage a global subsidy race. [Read]( how common concerns about an over-reliance on China are helping the EU and US to bridge their differences. Best of Bloomberg Opinion - [Putin’s Oil Revenge Is No Knockout Blow: Julian Lee]( - [At Last, There’s Some Good News From Yemen: Bobby Ghosh]( - [Why China Can Be Really Bad at Doing Big Things: Minxin Pei]( War and trade | When French President Emmanuel Macron meets with Xi Jinping in Beijing this week, he’ll try to convince his Chinese counterpart to change his stance on Russia’s war in Ukraine. Macron’s visit together with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will underscore a message of European unity while also hinting at a trade discussion that could distinguish France’s approach to [geopolitics]( from that of the US. - Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang yesterday urged Japan to refrain from supporting US efforts to suppress its [semiconductor industry](, while his counterpart pressed for the swift return of a Japanese citizen detained by Beijing. Explainers You Can Use - [What Trump’s Legal Perils Mean for His 2024 Candidacy]( - [Zombies Are Back! Here’s Why That’s Economic Trouble]( - [Sunak’s Successes Can’t Blot Out Tories’ Track Record in Office]( Protest pause | Opposition leader Raila Odinga announced a suspension of twice weekly protests that have [rocked Kenya]( and pledged to enter into talks with the government over his claim that he won last year’s presidential election. He made the concession after President William Ruto called for an end to the demonstrations that have left three people dead and hundreds injured. A protester throws a stone towards police during clashes in Nairobi on March 27. Photographer: Luis Tato/AFP/Getty Images Check out The Big Take podcast on what comes next for Donald Trump. Listen to the episode on [Bloomberg](, [iHeart](, [Apple Podcasts]( and [Spotify](. News to Note - Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said elections on May 14 should be a “lesson” to the US, as he tries to consolidate [nationalist support]( ahead of the vote. - Former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov won Bulgaria’s fifth election in two years, but his [failure]( to secure a majority threatens to extend a political stalemate undermining EU unity on Ukraine. - A pro-business opposition group unseated Prime Minister Sanna Marin in Finland’s close parliamentary elections, paving the way for [tough wrangling]( to form a new government in the northernmost euro area member. - An Oxford-educated economist won yesterday’s presidential runoff in Montenegro, rallying [voters fed up]( with more than three decades of political dominance by Milo Djukanovic. - Teachers in England rejected a government pay offer, paving the way for further strikes and providing a [fresh blow]( to Rishi Sunak’s government. Thanks to the 33 people who answered our Friday quiz and congratulations to Thomas Hawley, who was the first to name Vanuatu as the South Pacific atoll that is asking the International Court of Justice to rule on what countries must do to ensure the global temperature rise is below the Paris Agreement target of 1.5 degrees Celsius. And finally ... Indian vaccine tycoon Cyrus Poonawalla and his family agreed to pay about $120 million for a former royal palace that once housed the US consulate in Mumbai, but the sale has been in limbo for years due to a land dispute between the Maharashtra state and the Defense Ministry. [Alexander Sazonov]( and [Chris Kay]( report that the angry billionaire is now [lashing out]( in a rare example of an Indian mogul willing to question a government that has strong backing from the business community and is becoming bolder at cracking down on dissent. Cyrus Poonawalla Photographer: Sanjit Das/Bloomberg Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? 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