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Forward Guidance
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The euro's at a one-year high, latest ransomware attack goes global, and the oil rally sputters.
Euro rally
The euro rose to its [highest level]( in more than a year against the U.S. dollar, trading at $1.1361 by 5:00 a.m. Eastern Time. The move follows European Central Bank President Mario Draghi's [Tuesday speech](, in which he downplayed deflation risks. Euro-area government bond yields are also rising this morning, with [German bunds]( adding to yesterday's selloff. Comments from Federal Reserve President Janet Yellen and other Fed speakers about overvalued [asset prices]( also helped take the wind out of the equity market's sails, with weakness at the U.S. close feeding into Asian and European trading. Don't expect a break from central bankers today as the ECB forum in Portugal hosts a [policy panel]( featuring the heads of the euro-area's central bank as well as the Bank of England, Bank of Japan and Bank of Canada.Â
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A ransomware cyberattack, which started [in Ukraine]( yesterday and appears similar to last month's [WannaCry]( hack, has spread across the globe. India's largest container port was [unable to load or unload cargo]( after A.P. Moller-Maersk was impacted. The hackers are seeking [$300 in bitcoin]( to release files from computers that are affected. The cryptocurrency was up $240 from yesterday's low at $2,514.70 by 5:20 a.m.
Oil pause
The rally in oil [failed to hold](, with a barrel of West Texas Intermediate for August delivery trading at $44.08 as of 5:30 a.m. after U.S. industry data showed crude stockpiles rose. Traders are warning that the commodity could be due for a [violent]( price rise as bearish bets against crude, which have risen to the highest level in six years, risk a short-covering rally. For consumers, the price fall this year means prices at the pump for gas are the [lowest since 2005](.Â
Markets fall
Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index [fell 0.3 percent](, with Japan's Topix index also dropping 0.3 percent as tech stocks were hit by the hack attack as well as Yellen's comments. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was [0.4 percent lower]( at 5:45 a.m. with tech stocks once again amongst the biggest losers. S&P 500 futures were [slightly higher](.Â
Dividends
U.S. bank dividends and buyback plans are set to be approved after markets close today in the second part of the Fed's stress test. Lenders are expected to return $121 billion to shareholders next year. Speaking of dividends and buybacks, Nestle SA made its [first concession]( to activist investor Dan Loeb yesterday when it announced a [$21 billion share purchase]( to boost its stock price.Â
Here's what you should read today
- NYSE president calls short sellers "[icky](."
- '[Enigma network](' rocks Hong Kong markets with sudden 90 percent losses.
- Italy handed bank bondholders a bailout and a [bunch of questions](.
- Deutsche Bank faces a possible $60 million [derivative loss](.
- Madoff trustee [fetches $370 million]( after two offshore funds settle.
- How America's [aircraft carriers]( could become obsolete.
- The [very profitable]( business of scientific publishing.Â
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And finally, here’s what Joe’s interested in this morning
The most interesting story in the market right now is the ongoing weakness in tech stocks. Nasdaq 100 Index futures, which are highly sensitive to big-cap tech names, are off about 4.2 percent from the highs they made in early June. In contrast, S&P 500 futures are off a bit over 1 percent from recent highs. There's not some screamingly obvious "catalyst" for the weakness. These tech names, as everyone knows, have been crushing the market on the way up, so it makes sense that the reverse would be true on the way down. What would really probably hurt these stocks is some fundamental change to the underlying story. The meme is that the Facebooks and Amazons of the world are getting stronger as they get bigger due to network effects, and that their businesses are all but unstoppable. Were there to be a change or a break in that story, then there would probably be carnage. But so far, nobody's ready to declare that. This morning, Citi analysts lead by Mark May updated their price targets for several big internet stocks. With Amazon, they see 25 percent more upside (and a price target of $1,220), with Alphabet they see a gain of 20 percent (target: $1,135), and for Facebook they're forecasting another 26 percent (target: $190). In each case, it's all about fundamental earnings strength. With earnings for these big names coming out in just about a month, we'll get another update on whether the stories are intact.
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