5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day

US President Joe Biden eyes a new billionaire tax, JPMorgan turns on Jes Staley and bond markets brace for a recession. — Kristine Aquino Pr [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( US President Joe Biden eyes a new billionaire tax, JPMorgan turns on Jes Staley and bond markets brace for a recession. — [Kristine Aquino]( Billionaire tax [President Biden is proposing a series of new tax increases on billionaires](, rich investors and corporations in his budget request to Congress, slated to be released Thursday. The plan calls for a 25% minimum tax on billionaires and would nearly double the capital gains tax rate for investment to 39.6% from 20%, while raising income levies on corporations and wealthy Americans. While the proposal has little chance of passing Congress given the Republican-controlled House of Representatives, it foreshadows Democrats’ strategy ahead of debt ceiling and government spending negotiations later this year, as well as the economic platform underpinning an expected Biden reelection campaign. JPMorgan v Staley [JPMorgan is accusing former senior executive Jes Staley of deception](over dealings with Jeffrey Epstein, and is seeking to recoup eight years of compensation. The bank’s court filings demand Staley hand over all of his pay from 2006 through 2013 — a figure surpassing $80 million. They also argue he should bear the cost of any payouts in two lawsuits accusing the lender of facilitating Epstein’s crimes. “Staley’s acts of disloyalty occurred repeatedly, lasted for years, and persisted despite numerous opportunities to correct them,” JPMorgan wrote. Recession risk Bond markets across the globe are [ramping up bets for more interest-rate hikes]( and a higher peak in borrowing costs, raising the danger that economies buckle under the weight of further monetary policy tightening. That comes after a raft of developments that showed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and a number of his counterparts may need to step up efforts to contain the worst cost-of-living surge in decades. Goldman Sachs now sees the Fed’s key rates peaking at a 5.5% to 5.75% range — a percentage point higher than officials’ current target. Meanwhile, an increasing number of economists sees the European Central Bank’s deposit rate reaching a historic high of 4%, from the current 2.5%. Cautious markets S&P 500 futures fell 0.3% as of 5:35 a.m. in New York, while Nasdaq 100 contracts slid 0.6%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index retreated, set for its first one-day drop this week, giving most Group-of-10 currencies a boost. Treasuries edged higher, led by two-year notes, after three days of losses. Oil and gold climbed, while Bitcoin headed for a fourth day of declines. Coming up… At 7:30 a.m., we’ll get Challenger job cuts figures, followed by initial jobless claims due an hour later. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr is due to speak on crypto at an event at 10 a.m. The US will sell $18 billion of 30-year bonds at 1 p.m. Earnings include Oracle, Gap and DocuSign. The Bloomberg Invest series returns to London on March 22nd, gathering leading financial thinkers in investing to identify the biggest risks and greatest opportunities facing those in the region. Join in London or online to hear from executives from Blackstone, QuantumLight, and Sotheby’s. [Register here](. What we’ve been reading Here’s what caught our eye over the past 24 hours: - Investor[Jeffrey Gundlach thinks the US two-year yield]( has yet to peak - Senate Minority Leader [Mitch McConnell is hospitalized after a fall]( - UK growth is expected to remain [below pre-pandemic levels until 2024]( - [Apple reshuffles its international businesses]( to put bigger focus on India - [Value of a pre-owned Rolex](has risen more than S&P 500 since 2018 - [Rookie traders earn up to $400,000]( in an unlikely markets hub: Sydney - Police in Japan arrest three people for [“sushi terrorism” pranks]( And finally, here’s what Joe’s interested in this morning If you buy, say, a cake from a bakery, then you're really buying a lot of different things bundled into one product. You're buying the labor that went into making that cake. You're paying for part of the bakery's equipment and facilities. You're paying some margin to the entrepreneur who owns the bakery. And of course, you're paying for the commodities like flour, butter and eggs. If egg prices go up, you might reasonably expect to pay more for the cake, but do you intuitively have a good sense of how much of the cake's cost is the eggs? Do you have a great sense of how much the cost of making the cake went up if eggs increase in cost by 25%? Probably not. [Late last year on the Odd Lots podcast](, we interviewed a bakery owner who made this point, that a good time to raise prices is always when something is in the news that could plausibly be seen as adding to costs. So if bird flu is in the news, in any environment, that's when you can push through a price hike without too much pushback from customers. Anyway, the episode of the podcast that's out today is with [Samuel Rines](, an analyst at Corbu, who says this general pattern is repeating itself throughout the economy these days. There are so many things basically in the news that could plausibly be inflationary -- the pandemic, port bottlenecks, semiconductor shortages, bird flu, etc. -- that companies have had an easy time pushing prices higher, and expanding margins. Rines sees this basic story and dynamic being stated across numerous quarterly earnings calls over the last several years of high inflation. Now of course, part of the reason this "works" for companies is that job growth and wages have remained robust, so that these price increases can be sustained. Still it's a fascinating way of thinking about the channel via which "transitory" supply side factors lead to higher consumer prices. Part of it is the raw increase in commodities, labor costs etc. But also part of it is that each of these events make the price increases easier to pass along. Everyone "knows" about all the random exogenous inflationary shocks, so you can't hold it against a company when they are "unfortunately" "forced" to charge you more. It was a great conversation. Find it on [Apple](, [Spotify](, or elsewhere. Follow Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal on Twitter [@TheStalwart](. Follow Us You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Five Things to Start Your Day: Americas Edition newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox. [Unsubscribe]( [Bloomberg.com]( [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington Avenue, New York, NY 10022 [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( [Ad Choices](