An uphill battle

The UK and the European Union appear set to reach a deal over Northern Ireland trade arrangements. [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Three years after the UK left the European Union, London and Brussels appear close to a deal on trade arrangements involving Northern Ireland that could allow them to reset relations. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is expected to announce an agreement today when he meets European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Berkshire, where King Charles III’s Windsor Castle is situated. Yet he still faces an uphill battle in getting the deal across the line in his own camp. Key reading: - [Sunak Aims to Unveil Brexit Deal After Meeting Monday]( - [Rishi Sunak Faces Brexit Hell in Showdown With UK Hardliners]( - [Boris Johnson Refuses to Back Sunak’s N. Ireland Brexit Deal]( - [Why Northern Ireland Keeps the UK and Europe at Odds]( Opposition from Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party and some pro-Brexit lawmakers from the governing Conservative Party could derail its implementation. The DUP has refused to engage in a power-sharing administration in protest at how the current protocol creates a de facto border in the Irish Sea. To address such criticism, the agreement will create “green” and “red” customs lanes for goods entering Northern Ireland from the rest of Great Britain, cutting down on checks and paperwork for items that will remain in the UK. It will also seek to clarify the role of the European Court of Justice in potential trade disputes that relate to EU law. Despite the many obstacles ahead, if Sunak is able to win eventual acceptance, the two sides could put the danger of a trade war behind them and focus on other matters such as improving security ties and facing global challenges such as climate change, as well as China’s growing clout and Russia’s war in Ukraine. Sunak’s drive to repair some of the damage Brexit caused with the continent is part of a realization that an isolated UK standing somewhere between the EU and the US is far weaker than one cooperating with its biggest trade partner. It remains to be seen whether his party, which sticks to its mantra that Brexit has made the UK stronger, agrees with that imperative.  —[Richard Bravo]( Coming Soon: Understand power in Washington through the lens of business, government and the economy. Find out how the worlds of money and politics intersect in the US capital. [Sign up now for the new Bloomberg Washington newsletter](, delivered Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays. And if you are enjoying this newsletter, sign up [here](. Global Headlines Lost in space | When Beijing and Moscow announced plans in 2021 for a joint lunar project, it looked like a powerful alliance, matching China’s technological prowess with deep Russian space experience. Since Russia invaded Ukraine, however, Chinese officials have [downplayed]( talk of a space axis, and didn’t speak about Russia when discussing the lunar project at a recent space congress. - China’s [stance]( on the war puts it in an “awkward” position internationally, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said. Wartime guest | China will host Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko for a three-day [state visit]( starting tomorrow, welcoming an ally of Vladimir Putin as the Washington expresses concerns that Beijing at some point may decide to help arm Russian forces waging war on Ukraine. China called for a cease-fire last week in a position paper that was dismissed by US and European officials. - Saudi Arabia signed agreements worth $400 million with Ukraine after the kingdom’s foreign minister made a [surprise]( visit to Kyiv yesterday. China’s lithium industry is reeling as its top production hub faces sweeping closures amid a government probe of environmental infringements. That [threatens]( somewhere between 8% and 13% of global supply, according to various analyst estimates, although it’s unclear for how long the immediate shutdowns will last. Russia probe | Sudan is investigating whether dozens of Russians working for a mining company have been involved in [smuggling gold](, a potential setback for Moscow’s ambitions in the resource-rich North African country. Prosecutors arrested one and summoned other Russian employees for questioning just before and after Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s visit this month, in a move partly to appease Western powers concerned by Russia’s growing influence, sources say. Best of Bloomberg Opinion - [When Putin Invaded Ukraine, What Was He Thinking?: Hal Brands]( - [The Myth of the Inevitable Rise of a Petroyuan: Javier Blas]( - [No, 15-Minute Cities Aren’t a Threat to Liberty: Lara Williams]( Democracy standoff | Mexicans turned out en masse yesterday in [protest]( against President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s changes targeting the country’s electoral body. The opposition denounced government changes including reduced funding and cuts to the institution’s workforce as an attempt to weaken it and so tamper with next year’s elections, while the president says the body is untrustworthy. A protest yesterday against the proposed electoral changes at Zocalo Square in Mexico City. Photographer: Alejandro Cegarra/Bloomberg Explainers you can use - [How China Aims to Rejig Economy as Top Lawmakers Meet]( - [What We Know of the Shadow Fleet Handling Putin’s Oil]( - [US Cyclones Move North With Higher Wind Risk for Millions: Study]( Hobbled opposition | India’s top investigating agency [arrested]( a senior minister from the opposition party that governs the capital, New Delhi, over allegations of irregularities in implementing a new liquor-sales policy. The move may dent the Aam Aadmi Party’s aspirations of challenging Prime Minister Narendra Modi in national elections next year. Bloomberg TV and Radio air Balance of Power with [David Westin]( on weekdays from 12 to 1pm ET, with a second hour on Bloomberg Radio from 1 to 2pm ET. You can watch and listen on Bloomberg channels and online [here](. News to Note - China Renaissance said its Chairman Bao Fan is [cooperating]( in an unspecified investigation by Chinese authorities, offering the first public information about the banker’s whereabouts since he disappeared more than a week ago. - Israel and the Palestinian Authority [agreed]( to work to halt a recent spiral of violence, in a deal brokered by the US and neighbors Egypt and Jordan. - US President Joe Biden instructed federal agents investigating the train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio, to [go door-to-door]( to conduct health surveys with impacted families. - Results have begun [trickling in]( from Nigeria’s presidential election two days after voters in Africa’s biggest democracy went to the polls, with opposition parties warning delays risk compromising the outcome. And finally ... When UN negotiations over a global agreement on plastic waste convene for a second session from May 29 to June 2, the EU will show that it practices what it preaches by requiring companies selling products in countries in the bloc to make their packaging easier to reuse, recycle or in some cases compost. As [Olivia Rudgard]( explains, there’s a realistic chance that the EU’s model becomes the [de facto global standard](. Discarded plastic bottles ready for recycling at the Alternative Waste Solutions factory in Hemswell, UK. Photographer: Si Barber/Bloomberg Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Bloomberg Politics newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox. 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