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China’s cease-fire proposal for Ukraine gets a quick dismissal, top investors bet the dollar’s surge is over and how onions are at the cente [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( China’s cease-fire proposal for Ukraine gets a quick dismissal, top investors bet the dollar’s surge is over and how onions are at the center of a new chapter in the global food crisis. — [David Goodman]( China proposal One year on from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China called for a cease-fire in a 12-point proposal for ending the war that appeared to offer some reprieve to Moscow and [little chance of winning broad support]( as the conflict enters its second year. Several of the measures outlined by China in a position paper issued Friday would, if carried out, offer clear benefits to Russian President Vladimir Putin. That includes a cease-fire measure, which would freeze Russian troops in place on Ukrainian territory, as well as a call to immediately end all sanctions not endorsed by the UN Security Council, where Russia holds veto power. Peak dollar? Some of the world’s top investors are [betting the worst of the dollar’s rampage](is over after the surge upended the global economy in ways that had few parallels in modern history. Having skyrocketed to generational highs last year — deepening poverty and turbocharging inflation around the world — the currency has now entered what some forecasters are calling the start of a multi-year decline. Hoarding Onions The global crisis over food supplies is taking an alarming twist: [threatening to consume ingredients critical to the world’s nutrition.]( Onion prices are soaring, fueling inflation and prompting countries to take action to secure supplies. Morocco and Turkey have halted some exports, as has Kazakhstan. The Philippines has ordered an investigation into cartels. Meanwhile, some consumers are taking matters into their own hands. Restrictions have also gone beyond onions to include carrots, tomatoes, potatoes and apples, hampering availability worldwide, the United Nations and the World Bank warned this month. In Europe, empty shelves have forced UK supermarkets to ration purchases of some fruit and vegetables after a weak harvest in southern Spain and North Africa. Stocks mixed European stocks edged higher, while US index futures and Asian equities fell on a [quiet day for global markets](. The dollar strengthened, a gauge of commodities rose and Treasuries slipped. To catch up on the trading day in the UK and Europe,[ check out today’s edition of City Latest.]( Coming up… There’s a heavy data calendar in the US with personal income and spending data, along with the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, coming at 8:30 a.m. Later, there are reports on new home sales and sentiment as well as a number of Fed comments, including from Loretta Mester and James Bullard. What we’ve been reading Here’s what caught our eye over the past 24 hours: - How Biden’s shock-and-awe tactic[is failing to stop Russia]( - Billionaire private equity pioneer [Thomas Lee dies aged 78]( - BOJ pick Ueda feels pain of inflation from [bento lunch boxes]( - IAG sees strong bookings and[makes a bid for Air Europa]( - UK’s soaring mortgage costs mean it’s [cheaper to rent a home]( - Ski resorts are surviving climate change with[more money and less snow]( - Nearly a million across US without power as wild winter storm hits And finally, here’s what Katherine’s interested in this morning The Federal Reserve’s uber-aggressive rate-hiking cycle — which thoroughly extinguished the cryptocurrency market’s animal spirits last year — has created a windfall for one corner of the digital asset universe. Crypto exchange Coinbase reported larger-than-expected losses, sinking trading volumes and tumbling revenue this week, with one notable bright spot: interest income. That measure soared 79% quarter on quarter, thanks to its revenue-sharing agreement with Circle Internet Financial Ltd., the issuer of dollar-pegged stablecoin USDC. For the purposes of this fixed-income newsletter, what you need to know is that USDC maintains its peg to the dollar by holding its reserves in cash and short-duration Treasuries. With $42 billion of USDC in circulation, that’s boosted returns for Circle in a big way — and by extension, Coinbase. To be specific: interest income clocked in at $182 million in the fourth quarter, of which $146 million was derived from USDC alone. That compares to just $8 million overall in the final quarter of 2021. Of course, higher rates are a fickle friend — Mizuho’s Dan Dolev likened the surge in interest income to “empty calories.” Coinbase’s 10-K filing shows that the company is keenly aware of that as well: “Further, because interest income, particularly from USDC, has become an increased portion of our subscription and services revenue, if interest rates were to significantly decline from levels reached in 2022, our net revenue could decline. Conversely, when interest rates increase, investors may choose to shift their asset allocations, which could negatively impact our stock price or the crypto-economy more generally.” The last point is interesting, since that’s been the rallying cry of bond bulls — higher yields mean that fixed-income makes sense again, and as we’ve discussed, cash is super hot right now. Circle’s Chief Executive Officer Jeremy Allaire warned in November that funds were flowing from stablecoins — the crypto market’s haven asset — into Treasuries, and there’s not much that the issuer can do to stop it. “This is just a macro phenomenon,” Allaire told Bloomberg News at the time. “That’s not in our control really.” Follow Us You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Five Things to Start Your Day: Americas Edition newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox. [Unsubscribe]( [Bloomberg.com]( [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington Avenue, New York, NY 10022 [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( [Ad Choices](