Lessons of war

For decades, countries around the world whittled down their land armies and cut spending on “old school” weapons like artillery, certain tha [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( For decades, countries around the world whittled down their land armies and cut spending on “old school” weapons like artillery, certain that another large ground war was unlikely in a modern era. Any conflict would be high-tech and targeted, directed largely by soldiers hunched over keyboards thousands of miles away. Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has rapidly changed that thinking. Key reading: - [The Post-Cold War Era Is Gone. A New Arms Race Has Arrived]( - [Russia’s War in Ukraine: Key Events and How It’s Unfolding]( - [Ukraine to Receive Fewer Battle Tanks From Allies Than Promised]( - [Putin’s Invasion Shows World’s War Machine Needs More Ammunition]( - Follow our rolling coverage of the war [here](. Nearly a year into the Russian president’s war, our reporters spoke to their government and military sources and scoured open-source data to see how countries are studying the conflict in real time, and the lessons being absorbed everywhere from Taiwan and India to Poland, the UK and US. What we are seeing is a rapid reassessment not just of the need to ramp up defense spending, but of what weaponry is needed. While very high-tech whizzbangery is still important, other equipment is required, including shells and drones. The war has highlighted how the procurement business can be slow, not just to ensure arms keep going into Ukraine but that nations have enough in their own arsenals. The big contractors are not particularly agile. Aside from weapons, it’s given armies globally much to ponder in terms of what has gone right for Ukraine, and wrong for Russia. That includes on supply lines, command and control structures and intelligence gathering and delivery. Ukraine has done a lot of successful learning on the fly. Russia too seems to be starting to avoid some of its early mistakes. No war is a one-size-fits-all. There are some things that are unique about the conflict in Ukraine, yet there are also some important takeaways. And whatever happens, it has shaken up the security landscape for both Ukraine’s near neighbors and more distant countries in a way that will reverberate for many years. — [Rosalind Mathieson]( A soldier stands in front of Patriot surface-to-air missile systems at Warsaw Babice Airport, Poland, on Feb. 7. Photographer: Janek Skarzynski/AFP/Getty Images Coming Soon: Understand power in Washington through the lens of business, government and the economy. Find out how the worlds of money and politics intersect in the US capital. [Sign up now for the new Bloomberg Washington newsletter](, delivered Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays. [Click here]( for this week’s most compelling political images. And if you are enjoying this newsletter, sign up [here](. Global Headlines Easing tensions | President Joe Biden said he’s planning to speak soon with Xi Jinping about an alleged Chinese spy balloon [brought down]( over US territory. Making his first extended remarks about the incident, Biden said he would “responsibly manage” competition with Beijing “so that it doesn’t veer into conflict” between the world’s biggest economies. - [Read here]( about how a leading aerospace expert behind the 2015 launch of China’s first high-altitude airship called “Dream Come True” bolstered Beijing’s balloon program. - Washington is [sending]( its top China defense official to Taiwan in the coming days, the Financial Times reported. Northern Ireland talks | As expectation mounts that Britain and the European Union will reach a [deal]( on post-Brexit trading arrangements in the coming days, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak headed to Northern Ireland last night for talks with the region’s parties, sources say. His foreign secretary, James Cleverly, will have lunch with European Commission Vice President Maros Sefcovic today, another indication that both sides are looking for a deal. - Scotland’s nationalists [delayed]( a decision on whether to turn the next UK election into a de facto independence referendum after First Minister Nicola Sturgeon unexpectedly quit this week. Russia avoided an immediate economic debacle in the aftermath of Putin’s war in Ukraine. But an economy he once wanted to make one of the world’s five biggest is still on a path to lose [$190 billion]( in gross domestic product by 2026 relative to its prewar trajectory, according to Bloomberg Economics. That’s roughly the equivalent of the entire annual GDP of Hungary. Gone missing | The disappearance of one of China’s most prolific dealmakers over the past two decades, Bao Fan, is fueling concern about a [renewed clampdown]( on the finance industry. His company, China Renaissance, said it had lost touch with the banker, while his family was told he’s assisting an investigation, a source says. Best of Bloomberg Opinion - [Biden Is Old, But Age Isn’t What It Used to Be: Julianna Goldman]( - [An Erdogan Mea Culpa Must Precede Turkey’s Recovery: Bobby Ghosh]( - [China’s Old Playbook Is Back and That’s Bad News: Anjani Trivedi]( Anger returns | Protesters [returned to the streets]( across Iran to mark 40 days since the execution of two men arrested for participating in recent anti-government unrest. A brutal crackdown in December had quietened demonstrations that erupted after the September death in police custody of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old woman detained for allegedly violating strict Islamic dress codes for women. Explainers you can use - [Ahead of 2024, Biden’s Doctor Says He’s ‘Healthy’ and ‘Vigorous’]( - [Scotland’s Push to Secede From UK Won’t Go Away]( - [Nations Debate AI on The Battlefield. Here Are Some Takeaways]( Climate challenge | New Zealand faces big [questions]( about where people should live and how to build infrastructure as the aftermath of Cyclone Gabrielle highlights the impact of climate change, Finance Minister Grant Robertson said. The cyclone swept across the Upper North Island this week, destroying bridges, blocking roads and leaving tens of thousands without power and communications, just two weeks after a storm caused widespread flooding in Auckland. The remains of the Puketapu Bridge that washed away during Cyclone Gabrielle near Napier on Thursday. Source: STR/AFP/Getty Images Bloomberg TV and Radio air Balance of Power with [David Westin]( on weekdays from 12 to 1pm ET, with a second hour on Bloomberg Radio from 1 to 2pm ET. You can watch and listen on Bloomberg channels and online [here](. News to Note - Finland’s parliament is moving ahead with the domestic process to ratify the Nordic country’s [accession to NATO](, even as approval from Turkey and Hungary has yet to be received. - Ground staff at Germany’s biggest airports went [on strike]( over pay today, leading to 1,300 flight cancellations for national carrier Lufthansa. - Twitter shut two of its three India offices and told its staff to work from home, underscoring Elon Musk’s mission to [slash costs]( and make the struggling social media service profitable. - Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is to hold a [rare meeting]( with LGBTQ groups today, as pressure grows on him to introduce legislation protecting the rights of the community before hosting the Group of Seven summit in May. - President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva [toned down]( his criticism of Brazil’s central bank chief in an interview with CNN Brasil, another sign that their frosty relationship is starting to thaw. Pop quiz (no cheating!) Which country protested a Chinese ship aiming a military grade laser at one of its vessels? Send your answers to balancepower@bloomberg.net. And finally ... Terrorists were blamed when explosives were found in an SUV parked outside Indian billionaire Mukesh Ambani’s home in 2021. As [Chris Kay]( and [P R Sanjai]( report, the truth was far more [alarming](. It exposed an uncomfortable fact about Indian law-enforcement bodies: They are in many cases rotten. An elite detective with an eye on self-promotion and powerful political backers had staged a high-profile crime that only he could solve. Detective Sachin Waze arriving at the Mumbai police commissioner’s office in March 2021. He’s now awaiting trail for charges including criminal conspiracy, extortion and murder. Photographer: Pratik Chorge/Hindustan Times/Getty Images Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. 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