No respite for Putin

Your Balance of Power today outlines the latest developments in Russia's war in Ukraine. [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Ten months ago, Ukraine and its allies would have probably rejoiced if Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a cease-fire. Kyiv’s flat refusal to join his plans for a 36-hour pause in the fighting shows how much things have changed. Key reading: - [US, Germany Add Armored Vehicles and a Patriot for Ukraine]( - [Clock Starts on Putin’s Ukraine Cease-Fire That Kyiv Scorned]( - [German Shift on Combat Vehicles Triggers Calls for Battle Tanks]( - [Russia Looks to Press Big Firms for More Cash as War Costs Mount]( - Follow our rolling coverage of the war [here](. With his troops slowly clawing back territory, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy repudiated Putin’s call for a halt to hostilities to observe Orthodox Christmas as a cynical bid to shore up Russian positions and halt Kyiv’s advance. While that was happening, two of Ukraine’s top military patrons were agreeing after months of hesitation to deliver armored vehicles that can better take on Russian tanks. A day after France said it would send Kyiv wheeled tank destroyers, the US and Germany announced they’ll provide Bradley and Marder fighting vehicles respectively. Germany, where Chancellor Olaf Scholz has faced criticism for his caution on sending heavy weapons, will also supply a Patriot air-defense battery — after the US announced last month it plans to send one. The deliveries tick a box near the top of Zelenskiy’s wish list, even though they’ll only amount to dozens of vehicles from each ally, far short of the 600-700 the Ukrainian president says he needs to drive Russia back across the border. They represent a significant upgrade in firepower and show how much Ukraine’s allies want to shore it up ahead of the spring, when new offensives may come. Talk is also now surfacing in Germany that Berlin should be the first to let Ukraine have the modern battle tanks used by NATO’s most advanced militaries. For Putin, who is struggling to prop up an economy hit by sanctions, it’s yet another setback. After learning at the start of his invasion that he couldn’t swiftly beat Ukraine, he’s finding that defeating it slowly won’t be any easier. — [Michael Winfrey]( A US Army M2 Bradley fighting vehicle. Photographer: Alex Kraus/Bloomberg Click [here]( for this week’s most compelling political images. And if you’re enjoying this newsletter, sign up [here](. Global Headlines Political gift | President Joe Biden will seize on today’s second anniversary of the Jan. 6 insurrection at the US Capitol alongside the current Republican chaos over who to choose as Speaker of the House to draw a sharp contrast between his party and the GOP. As [Akayla Gardner]( writes, Democrats are using the moment to showcase unity within their own ranks. - The turmoil over the start of the new Republican-controlled House shows how disarray in Washington [risks]( igniting a debt crisis later this year. - Former President Donald Trump is being blamed in a lawsuit for [the death]( of Capitol Police Officer Brian Sicknick, who was assaulted during the Jan. 6 riot. Teaming up | This year’s host of the Group of Seven summit wants member states to coordinate their approach to what it calls “[economic coercion](” by China against some trading partners. Actions such as suspending imports of Taiwanese pineapples represent a “clear and present danger” for countries around the world, Japan said. China’s trade restrictions on Australian wine, lobsters and other commodities could be the next to [ease]( amid a warming of diplomatic ties and expectations that Beijing will soon resume imports of coal. China, which accounts for about 40% of Australian exports, has blocked billions of dollars of trade since 2020 via curbs on a vast range of goods. Backing Assad | Turkey is prepared to [publicly recognize]( President Bashar al-Assad’s rule over Syria — a policy reversal — and build diplomatic, security and trade ties in a deal backed by Russia and the United Arab Emirates, sources tell [Selcan Hacaoglu]( and [Firat Kozok](. In return, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wants Assad to rule out allowing the US-backed Kurdish YPG forces to form an autonomous area in northern parts of the country they control. Best of Bloomberg Opinion - [No, Vaccines Aren’t Making New Covid Variants Worse: Faye Flam]( - [Taiwan Must Heed the Wake-Up Call From Ukraine: Clara F. Marques]( - [China’s Covid Surge Poses an International Challenge: Editorial]( Repeat rebuffs | Worried about new variants and the impact on China’s economy, the US has repeatedly offered mRNA Covid vaccines and other assistance through private channels, sources say. But as this report [shows](, China has rebuffed those offers even as it battles a Covid wave, leaving American officials concerned about a broader resurgence of the pandemic. - China plans to relax restrictions on developer borrowing, [dialing back]( the stringent “three red lines” policy that exacerbated one of the biggest real estate meltdowns in the country’s history. Explainers you can use - [World’s Love Affair With Japanese Cars Sours Over EV Blunders]( - [‘Hydroclimate Whiplash’ Worsens California Storms, Drought Alike]( - [Who Is Cheryl Johnson? House Clerk Runs the Show Amid GOP Fight]( Drug arrest | Violence erupted after Mexico’s military [arrested]( one of the sons of incarcerated drug lord Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman yesterday. The operation to bring in Ovidio Guzman, the alleged leader of a trafficking organization suspected of funneling narcotics to the US, took place days before Biden is due in Mexico for a summit with his Mexican and Canadian counterparts. Guzman at the moment of his first detention in 2019. Source: CEPROPIE/AP Click [here]( to listen to the latest Stephanomics podcast on the consequences of the blame game between the US and China over their deteriorating ties and [here]( for our Big Take podcast that digs into how Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has done something no other Republican has been able to do: appeal to Trump voters (along with independents and even some Democrats) while removing Trump himself from the conversation. News to Note - Vietnam dismissed two deputy prime ministers — the most senior officials to be relieved of their duties since 2017 — amid lengthy probes to [clean up corruption]( and protect the Communist Party’s legitimacy. - Taiwan has asked to join discussions centered on China’s protest against [US chip sanctions]( at the World Trade Organization, seeking a voice on a debate that could have ramifications for the global chip industry. - The Royal College of Nursing wants the UK government to meet it “halfway” on pay, another sign of [softening positions]( ahead of more planned strikes this month. - Chilean President Gabriel Boric announced a [social spending]( package worth $2 billion as his approval ratings fall and the economy shrinks. - The Taliban-led administration in Afghanistan signed a deal with a subsidiary of China National Petroleum Corporation, its [first]( international contract to extract oil from the northern Amu Darya basin as the beleaguered group seeks to increase revenue. Pop quiz (no cheating!) Which country’s defense minister called into question the legitimacy of the European Central Bank’s independence from national governments and European Union authorities? Send your answers to balancepower@bloomberg.net. And finally ... Checkpoints at the border separating Hong Kong from mainland China are due to reopen on Sunday after three years. The cost of prolonged separation has been huge to the territory, with billions of dollars lost in potential growth, production shifted elsewhere and hundreds of thousands having left for good. [Read]( how the immediate impact on the ailing city is expected to be muted, for all the reopening’s significance. Pedestrians outside Harbour City shopping mall in Hong Kong on Oct. 15. Photographer: Lam Yik/Bloomberg Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. 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