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Economists see slower US job growth, the House speaker standoff continues and several Federal Reserve officials weigh in on the peak in inte [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Economists see slower US job growth, the House speaker standoff continues and several Federal Reserve officials weigh in on the peak in interest rates. — [Kristine Aquino]( Jobs outlook After US employment bounced back to its pre-pandemic level in 2022, [payroll growth]( is expected to level out or reverse course into this year. Today's data are projected to show an increase of 202,000 in December after climbing 263,000 in the previous month. That follows figures yesterday that showed [private payrolls increased 235,000]( last month after an upwardly revised 182,000 in November. That said, the figures may soon cool as [small-business owners]( dialed back hiring plans for a third-straight month in December. Elusive speaker A standoff remains between Kevin McCarthy’s allies and members of the group who’ve blocked the California Republican from being elected speaker in a [historic 11 rounds]( of voting. All other business has been frozen in the chamber, which will reconvene on Friday. To compormise, McCarthy has offered significant concessions on House rules that would weaken his power and his ability to control hard-liners in his party, which raises the risk of chaos on issues like the debt ceiling and government spending. Meanwhile, House Clerk Cheryl Johnson has become an [unlikely folk hero]( in Washington this week, running the lower chamber of Congress with a steady hand. Fed voices St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said he thought rates are getting [near to high enough]( to temper inflation. Bullard was one of the most hawkish members of the Fed committee last year, although he’s not a voting member of the committee this year. Esther George, Kansas City Fed President and also a non-voting member in 2023, said she thought rates should [stay above 5%]( well into 2024 and should stay there "until we get the signals that inflation is really convincingly starting to fall back toward our 2% goal." Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, another non-voter this year, [also spoke]( and emphasized there was "much work to do on inflation." Stocks retreat S&P 500 futures erased earlier gains while the Nasdaq 100 traded 0.2% lower as of 5:10 a.m. New York time. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 was marginally lower as autos and financial services lagged while energy and basic resources rose. The dollar climbed 0.2% to a session high, pulling all G10 currencies lower. Ten-year Treasury yields rose about 2 basis points, trading within Thursday's range. Gold and oil advanced, while Bitcoin fell. To catch up on the trading day in the UK and Europe, [check out today’s edition of City Latest](. Coming up… The much-anticipated US payrolls report will be out at 8:30 a.m., alongside Canada’s latest employment figures. At 10 a.m., ISM will release latest figures on its services gauge, while data on factory orders and durable goods are due. There’s a slew of Fed speakers coming, including Bostic, George and Fed Governor Lisa Cook. What we’ve been reading Here’s what caught our eye over the past 24 hours: - Special counsel probing Trump over Capitol attack [gets new evidence]( - Yale, Oxford take one step closer to[opening campuses in India]( - [Struggling makeup brand Morphe]( to close all US stores - [China may ease its “three red lines”]( of real estate regulation - [Toyota loses to Tesla]( in shift to electric vehicles - Russia set to[press commodity firms for more cashÂ]( - [TikTok freezes hiring](for US security deal And finally, here’s what Garfield is interested in this morning Fresh from the [worst year]( on record for bonds, investors turned optimistic as 2023 began. Undeterred by the memory that a year ago many took reassurance from the idea that bonds don’t do back-to-back annual declines, fresh positivity erupted thanks to a growing consensus [recessions]( are coming and central banks will have to start cutting rates. Treasuries chalked up their [strongest start]( to a year since the Alan Greenspan era, underscoring how strong expectations are that a bit of economic pain will turn Federal Reserve hawks back into doves in a flash. That aligns with strategists’ [forecasts]( 2023 will be a year when yields fall and curves steepen, while traders are becoming more and more certain inflation will [cool]( rapidly. Policymakers though are pushing back. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde ended 2022 saying rates [have]( to go higher to tame inflation. There were plenty of [indications]( in the first week of the year that even if some softer-than-expected CPI readings really do mean inflation has peaked, the ECB will stick to its tightening path. Fed Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari led the [hawkish rhetoric]( stateside, saying the US central bank has at least another percentage point of rate increases to deliver in 2023. In a sign of the stakes at play, Treasuries took a [tumble]( after a private jobs gauge and the weekly jobless claims data underscored the potential for a strong US payrolls print that would spur the Fed toward higher rates than investors are currently expecting. The potential for rates to go high and stay higher for longer would hit bond markets hard, especially considering weaker economies would likely force governments to borrow more. European traders are [bracing]( for extra volatility due to the likelihood of record bond sales flooding into a market that can no longer rely on central bank buying for support. — [Garfield Reynolds]( Follow Us You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Five Things - Americas newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox. [Unsubscribe]( [Bloomberg.com]( [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington Avenue, New York, NY 10022 [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( [Ad Choices](