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The Federal Reserve pushes back on rate-cut bets, Amazon adds to tech job cuts and Wall Street’s biggest bear expects more pain. — Kristine [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( The Federal Reserve pushes back on rate-cut bets, Amazon adds to tech job cuts and Wall Street’s biggest bear expects more pain. — [Kristine Aquino]( Fed resolve The Fed underlined its determination to stamp out inflation in the [minutes]( released yesterday for the December meeting of the FOMC. Officials noted that a "misperception" of the Fed's reaction function would complicate the bank's goal of restoring price stability. Derek Tang, an economist at LH Meyer in Washington, noted "they don't see light at the end of the tunnel yet with inflation." The minutes gave [few clues]( about whether the next rate hike in February would be 25 or 50 bps, saying the FOMC "would continue to make decisions meeting by meeting." Disappearing jobs While official data still seem to indicate a strong US jobs market -- with job openings [beating expectations]( and more readings due from ADP today and the BLS tomorrow -- anecdotal evidence suggests a pocket of weakness in tech. Amazon is laying off more than [18,000 employees]( — the biggest reduction in its history. And Salesforce will cut about [10% of its workforce]( because it said it hired too many people during the pandemic. Wall Street bear Equity investors hoping for a reprieve after a brutal 2022 are likely to be disappointed, according to Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz. The strategist, ranked No. 3 in the last year’s Institutional Investor survey, predicts that the S&P 500 will fall 16% to 3,225. The price target is the lowest among Wall Street prognosticators tracked by Bloomberg. While admitting that history is not on the side of bears, Kantrowitz says the market is contending with something unusual: a Fed hellbent on [fighting inflation](. As it takes time for higher borrowing costs to work through the economy, he argues, the hit to corporate earnings is likely to extend well into next year. Cautious markets S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 contracts, as well as the Stoxx 600 were little changed as of 5:05 a.m. in New York. In European cash equities, media and insurance underperformed while retail and miners led gainers. The dollar edged lower, while Treasuries gave up some of the prior day’s gains. Crude oil rose after falling 9.5% in the past two days, including the biggest daily decline since September on Wednesday. Gold fell and Bitcoin was little changed. To catch up on the trading day in the UK and Europe, [check out today’s edition of City Latest.Â]( Coming up… Several Fed officials will speak today, starting with Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker at 7:30 a.m., followed by Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic at 9:20 a.m. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard will discuss the economy and monetary policy at 1:20 p.m. We’ll also get more key employment data from ADP at 8:15 a.m., as well as jobless claims figures 15 minutes later. At 9:45 a.m., S&P Global will publish the latest reading for its services gauge. The EIA will release figures on US crude inventories at 11 a.m. What we’ve been reading Here’s what caught our eye over the past 24 hours: - The [US may be able to dodge recession](, a yield-curve pioneer says - Betting on the end of Fed stimulus [returns 163% for a new hedge fund]( - Why the[`Kraken’ Covid variant]( is causing concern - The key dates for [Americans with student loansÂ]( - There’s [not enough snow in the Alps]( for skiing this year - [BMW’s concept car](features a voice-controlled windshield display - Scores of small breweries in the US are [creating a beer glut]( And finally, here’s what Joe’s interested in this morning Hello and happy Jobs Day Eve. Tomorrow we get the December non-farm payrolls. But for the moment let's look backwards to yesterday, because there were a few interesting data points. First and foremost, we got the latest JOLTS report. In the old days, JOLTS (The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) seemed like kind of an intellectual curiosity. You know, something for the economists among us. But these days, it's become Top Shelf data, because the Fed has put such a high emphasis on job openings as an important indicator of labor market tightness. Well, job openings in November came in at 10.4 million, well above the 10 million that were expected. The prior month was also revised higher. Stocks immediately fell on the news. Also within the JOLTS report, we got news that the Quits rate actually ticked higher, which again, is a sign that workers feel good about the state of the labor market. One of my favorite charts, which I've probably posted a few dozen times, is the Quits Rate vs. the Labor Differential Index of the Conference Board Consumer Confidence survey. One is hard data (the % of workers who quit) while the other is a sentiment measure (basically asking workers how they feel about the labor market). And yet the two lines move together really nicely. Both saw a jump in their latest reading. In other words, from the point of view of workers, things seem good. That was also confirmed in the latest ISM Manufacturing report. Most of the numbers in the report were negative (indicating contraction) but the Employment Sub-Index went back into expansion. More good jobs news. On the other hand, the ISM Prices Paid index fell from 43.0 to 39.4. That was the first sub-40 reading since the spring of 2020. Of course, the question is whether declining wholesale prices paid by manufacturing companies translates into lower prices passed along to end consumers. (Speaking of falling wholesale prices, check out today's Odd Lots podcast with Ryan Petersen, the Co-CEO of Flexport. He talks about a "great recession" that's come to the ocean freight business). This of course, returns us to the core question of the inflation debate. Will inflation fall due to "normalization" of the economy, or do we need to see a significantly weakening labor market to get inflation back down? That remains the multi-trillion dollar question. And for now it remains unresolved. It won't be resolved until either the unemployment rate actually spikes or we see a sustained period of lower prices. Meanwhile, speaking of economic strength, we also got strong car sales in December. GM and Toyota are seeing "surging" demand in the US, [according to figures reported yesterday](. There's a lot of talk about recession risk. And of course it's possible. But just looking at the latest batch of numbers, it still looks like a robust consumer and a robust jobs market. Oh, and while we're here, here's the Johnson Redbook Same Store Sales Weekly Number, along with the 13-week moving average. The number has definitely come way down from the intensity of early 2022 and 2021. But overall growth is still way faster than pre-pandemic, and in fact the last few weeks have seen a nice uptick. Follow Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal on Twitter [@TheStalwartÂ]( Follow Us You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Five Things - Americas newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox. [Unsubscribe]( [Bloomberg.com]( [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington Avenue, New York, NY 10022 [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( [Ad Choices](