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Forward Guidance
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Wall Street braces for Comey, Santander buys Banco Popular, and markets wait for Thursday's big news day.
The Comey sessions
One of Thursday's big scheduled events may not be so momentous after all, if [early leaks]( of James Comey's testimony are to be believed. The fired FBI director will publicly describe conversations with President Donald Trump, but stop short of saying if he thinks the president sought to obstruct a federal probe of Russia’s role in the 2016 election, according to a person familiar with his thinking. Still, there are fund managers out there who think that, compared with the high degree of consensus surrounding the [ECB's next move](, Comey is tomorrow's [wildcard](. On a related note, Jeff Sessions is said to have offered to resign as U.S. attorney general over [growing tensions]( with the president, according to a person familiar with the matter.Â
Popular wipeout
Banco Santander SA agreed to buy Banco Popular Espanol SA for a nominal 1 euro ($1.13), after European regulators determined that the troubled lender was likely to fail and [ordered it to be sold](. All of Popular’s junior bonds will be [wiped out]( as part of the deal, including its additional Tier 1 notes. That marks the first write-off of AT1s industrywide since regulators developed the bonds in the wake of the financial crisis as part of efforts to transfer risk to investors from governments. Read more about bail-ins [here](.Â
Middle East tensions
Gunmen in Iran killed a least one person in [twin attacks](that targeted both the country’s parliament and a shrine dedicated to the Islamic Republic’s founder, state media reported. Nearby, the diplomatic crisis in the Gulf shows no sign of abating, with Trump [backing]( the Saudi-led isolation and a new suggestion that Russian hackers helped exacerbate tensions by planting [fake news]( in Qatari state media. While the emirate still has many [friends]( in the energy market, its $135 billion stock market is the most [volatile]( globally.Â
Markets stable
Haven assets steadied after yesterday’s advance, with gold edging [lower](. While the MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed, the Shanghai Composite jumped 1.2 percent to the highest in a month, and Europe's Stoxx 600 Index was headed for its first gain in three days as of 5:41 a.m. Eastern Time. Oil slipped after yesterday's U.S. data showed a large expansion in gasoline [stockpiles](, offsetting the bullish influence of another decline in crude inventories.
Coming up...
It's a quiet day for U.S. data, with just April consumer credit figures for March published at 3 p.m. Eastern Time. Germany's disappointing [factory orders]( may provide food for thought for the European Central Bank, which releases its latest policy decision Thursday. There's also the small matter of the U.K. election tomorrow, which traders say [could topple the pound]( in the event of a hung parliament.
Here's what you should read today
- Britain's strange election is [about nothing](.
- [Sea cucumbers]( are eating oil trader profits.
- The Saudi Prince, a sheikh, and the isolation of a [Gulf renegade](.
- Why "[obstruction of justice](" is echoing around D.C.
- The [Muslim Brotherhood]( is at the heart of the fight in Qatar.
- London braces for life [post-Brexit](.Â
- China's [monetary diplomacy]( matters.Ă‚
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And finally, here’s what Joe’s interested in this morning
In the wake of Donald Trump's decision to abandon the Paris climate agreement, there's been increased controversy over CEO participation in the president's business council. Both [Tesla CEO Elon Musk]( and [Disney CEO Bob Iger]( said they would be stepping down from the group. Others, so far, are staying put. I really have nothing to say about any of this. But I will point to John Kenneth Galbraith, who wrote about Herbert Hoover's meetings with top business leaders in the wake of the stock market crash in his book "[The Great Crash of 1929](." As Galbraith [wrote](: "Yet to suppose that President Hoover was engaged only in organizing further reassurance is to do him a serious injustice. He was also conducting one of the oldest, most important — and, unhappily, one of the least understood — rites in American life. This is the rite of the meeting which is called not to do business but to do no business. It is a rite which is still much practiced in our time. It is worth examining for a moment. Men meet together for many reasons in the course of business. They need to instruct or persuade each other. They must agree on a course of action. They find thinking in public more productive or less painful than thinking in private. But there are at least as many reasons for meetings to transact no business. Meetings are held because men seek companionship or, at a minimum, wish to escape the tedium of solitary duties. They yearn for the prestige which accrues to the man who presides over meetings, and this leads them to convoke assemblages over which they can preside. Finally, there is the meeting which is called not because there is business to be done, but because it is necessary to create the impression that business is being done. Such meetings are more than a substitute for action. They are widely regarded as action."
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