Dangerous nuclear divide

North Korea’s launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile that could potentially deliver a warhead to the American mainland exposes a da [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( North Korea’s launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile that could potentially deliver a warhead to the American mainland exposes a dangerous divide over nuclear proliferation among world powers. The test added an exclamation point to North Korea’s intensifying coercion-style diplomacy in recent weeks, when it has displayed its anger at joint military drills conducted by Washington and its Asian allies by ramping up provocations. Key reading: - [North Korea Fires Suspected ICBM After Warning US on Exercises]( - [US-China Friction Gives Kim Jong Un the Freedom to Fire Away]( - [US and South Korea Warn Kim of Regime’s Demise If He Uses Nukes]( - [APEC Latest: Kamala Harris Condemns North Korea Missile Launch]( - [Iran Atomic Escalation Seen Hurtling Toward Dangerous Crisis]( In the past, Pyongyang usually waited until drills were over before rattling its saber. But with US attention diverted to the war in Ukraine, and with Beijing and Moscow showing little sign of backing new penalties for his actions, the North Korean leader has been firing away. The next major move could be the country’s first nuclear test since 2017. Satellite imagery shows the state’s only known test site is ready, and Kim Jong Un may try to improve his ability to miniaturize warheads designed to strike Japan and South Korea, or improve bigger weapons intended for the US. The US, Japan and South Korea have all promised stern punishment if North Korea defies United Nations resolutions with a new nuclear test. US Vice President Kamala Harris, in Bangkok for APEC meetings, was quick to condemn the latest missile launch. But their options may be limited: Russia and China hold veto power at the Security Council and show no inclination to approve new sanctions. Those divisions were laid bare in another standoff yesterday when the International Atomic Energy Agency’s board of governors formally censured Tehran for a second time this year over its rapidly expanding nuclear program and restrictions on international monitoring. While the US and its European allies sponsored the resolution demanding Iran urgently cooperate with the IAEA, China and Russia opposed it. That reality may mean more tests — both for nuclear weapons and the world’s resolve to stop their spread — are coming. — [Jon Herskovitz]( A news broadcast shows file footage of a North Korean missile test, in Seoul on Friday. Photographer: Anthony Wallace/Getty Images Click [here]( to listen to our Twitter Space conversation about how investors view Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva at 11am ET and [here]( for this week’s most compelling political images. If you’re enjoying this newsletter, sign up [here]( for Balance of Power. Global Headlines Inching forward | Climate talks at the UN conference in Egypt look set to carry on into the weekend in a bid to reach a [breakthrough]( over fossil fuels. At issue is how to compensate countries bearing the brunt of climate change through flooding, droughts and other disasters. The European Union has proposed a finance facility for the most vulnerable states in exchange for a pledge to phase down oil, gas and coal. Sea change | Nancy Pelosi’s decision to step down as House Democratic leader ends her [history-making]( tenure as the first woman to serve as speaker. For years, she acted as a lightning rod for Republican attacks as well as a foil for Democrats pushing for more progressive polices, and her departure opens the way for a generational change in her party’s leadership. - House Democrats quickly [coalesced]( behind Hakeem Jeffries as their next leader. Long viewed as Pelosi’s heir apparent, he would be the first Black party leader in Congress. Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt laid bare a [bleak]( new reality for the UK economy, one plagued by weak growth and rising taxes for years to come. Pinned in by a toxic combination of recession, investor skepticism and the sharpest squeeze in living standards since records began, Hunt pieced together $65 billion worth of tax hikes and spending cuts in a bid to stabilize public finances. Twitter review | Elon Musk’s $44 billion takeover of Twitter is facing US government scrutiny over [national-security concerns]( that his foreign partners may be able to access users’ personal data, sources say. The deal still faces mounting criticism from US lawmakers over the participation of investors from Saudi Arabia and Qatar. - The unexpectedly high number of employees who’ve refused [to agree]( to Musk’s ultimatum to commit to a new “hardcore” work environment or leave may put Twitter’s operations at risk. Best of Bloomberg Opinion - [UK Could Use a World Cup Win — for the Economy: Andrea Felsted]( - [Turkey for Thanksgiving? That’s the Problem: Amanda Little]( - [Nancy Pelosi Will Be a Hard Act to Follow: Matthew Yglesias]( Hard choices | The impoverished South American nation of Guyana is acutely vulnerable to fossil-fuel-induced climate change, since most of its waterlogged capital Georgetown sprawls across a coastal basin that’s about 7 feet below sea level. Yet, as [Montel Reel]( reports, the government is turning to the very business that could spell its [demise](, by embracing a massive cache of oil potentially worth hundreds of billions of dollars discovered in its section of the Caribbean Sea. Explainers you can use - [What Congress’s Same-Sex Marriage Bill Could Mean]( - [Why Europe’s €2.75 Trillion Renovation Wave Is Falling Flat]( - [Six Key Takeaways From Jeremy Hunt’s New Plan for the UK Economy]( Censorship power | Following a deadly bombing in central Istanbul on Sunday, the Turkish government showed its newly enhanced power to cut off news flows, with social media services including Twitter, Instagram and YouTube quickly [made inaccessible.]( The restrictions highlight the reach of a so-called “disinformation bill” passed last month. Bloomberg TV and Radio air Balance of Power with [David Westin]( on weekdays from 12 to 1pm ET, with a second hour on Bloomberg Radio from 1 to 2pm ET. You can watch and listen on Bloomberg channels and online [here](. News to Note - A Swedish investigation into ruptures at the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines has concluded that the cause was “[grievous sabotage](,” the country’s security service said. - A final US Senate vote to pass the Respect for Marriage Act, to protect the right of same-sex marriage, [cleared]( another hurdle yesterday and will be considered after the Thanksgiving holiday. - French President Emmanuel Macron [warned]( Australia’s agreement to build nuclear submarines with the US and UK “will not deliver,” a day after he said the offer of French-made vessels was “still on the table.” - Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman [can’t be sued]( in the US over the murder of columnist Jamal Khashoggi because as a head of government he’s immune, the Biden administration told a judge. - Two Russians and a Ukrainian citizen were found [guilty]( by a Dutch court of carrying out the deadly attack on Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 in 2014, in a judgment set to further inflame tensions between the West and the Kremlin. Pop quiz (no cheating!) Which government leader did Chinese President Xi Jinping confront at the G-20 summit, accusing him of leaking details of their private meeting? Send your answers to balancepower@bloomberg.net. And finally ... Discrimination against women and LGBTQ people, poor treatment of migrant laborers — controversy has trailed the 2022 football World Cup that kicks off Sunday ever since Qatar was chosen to host it 12 years ago. But one thing is certain. The tournament, which the tiny gas-rich Middle East nation has spent $300 billion to prepare for, will be a [cash cow]( for organizers FIFA, topping the roughly $5.4 billion that the 2018 World Cup in Russia generated for the sport’s governing body. The Lusail football stadium in Doha. Photographer: Christopher Pike/Bloomberg Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. 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