The nuclear question

President Vladimir Putin insists he isn’t planning to use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine, yet the will-he-won’t-he guesswork continues with Rus [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( President Vladimir Putin insists he isn’t planning to use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine, yet the will-he-won’t-he guesswork continues with Russia’s floundering invasion now in its ninth month. “If he has no intention, why’s he keep talking about it?” US President Joe Biden replied to an interviewer, after Putin told foreign-policy experts in Moscow yesterday that “there is no point, either military or political” for him to order a nuclear strike on Ukraine. Key reading: - [Putin Plays Down Nuclear Threat in Ukraine as He Lambasts US]( - [Biden Questions Putin Claim Russia Won’t Use Nuclear Weapons]( - [Russia Export Windfall Finds Sanctions Haven in Yuan, Quasi-Bank]( - [Pentagon Rejects Ban on Using Nukes for Conventional Threats]( - [Putin’s Threats Worry NATO as Sign of Russian Desperation]( - Follow our rolling coverage of the war [here](. Russia had merely dropped “hints” at one in response to US and European comments about the risk of nuclear escalation, Putin said. His denial came a day after state television showed him overseeing regular drills by Russia’s strategic forces that simulated a massive retaliatory nuclear attack. The Russian leader has a history of misleading statements. He flatly denied that soldiers in unbadged military uniforms who seized Crimea in 2014 were Russian before later admitting he’d sent them. He insisted he had no plans to invade Ukraine even as his forces massed along the border from late last year. His defense minister has been relaying “concerns” all week to counterparts in the US, Europe, China and India about the risk of a “dirty bomb” that Putin says Ukraine may be preparing to detonate on its own territory and to blame on Moscow, while offering no evidence. Ukraine denies the allegation and has joined with allies in warning that Russia may be readying a pretext for escalating its war. Putin shows no sign of backing down from the invasion, even as his troops retreat under Ukrainian pressure. The use of nuclear weapons in warfare is a line that no nation has crossed since the end of World War II. The question is whether Putin, despite his denials, turns Russia’s saber-rattling into reality — and how Ukraine’s allies would respond. Putin delivering his annual news conference in Moscow in December 2021. Photographer: Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg [Click here]( for this week’s most compelling political images. And if you’re enjoying this newsletter, click [here]( to sign up. Global Headlines Ideological clash | China’s marriage of [communism and capitalism]( has for four decades powered its economic rise and lined the pockets of money managers from New York to London and Shanghai. It was only a matter of time before the two ideologies clashed, and they did in a spectacular $6 trillion stock-market blowup that came to a head after President Xi Jinping secured a third term surrounded by close allies. - Xi took his newly appointed team to a key landmark in the Communist Party’s revolutionary rise, telling China’s most-powerful men to prepare for “[challenges ahead](.” - Investor hopes that China would ease its stringent Covid Zero strategy after the ruling part congress were dashed as [fresh lockdowns]( are imposed from Wuhan to the industrial belt on the east coast as cases rise. Fresh bumps | It was only a year ago that Biden stood in Brussels to announce a new era for the world’s largest trade relationship after four years of [strained ties]( between the US and the European Union under former President Donald Trump. Twelve months on, as [Bryce Baschuk]( writes, US allies in the EU are citing unfairness in the Biden administration’s most recent industrial policies, including about $370 billion of clean-energy subsides in the Inflation Reduction Act. - Biden said Xi [expressed worries]( about the US strengthening its domestic production of semiconductors as the White House moves to reduce reliance on Asian suppliers and restrict Chinese access to chipmaking technology. Europe has been able to [plug the gap]( left by smaller Russian gas flows with US supplies, but those shipments won’t be able to keep up. While US fuel now makes up 40% of Europe’s liquefied natural gas imports, it will only offset a fraction of the deficit from Russia next summer. US Midterms latest - [House Republicans Launch Probe of Biden Oil Reserve Release]( - [Yellen Warns Republicans Not to Hold US ‘Hostage’ on Debt Limit]( - [Trump Shells Out $20 Million to Support His Senate Candidates]( Staying ahead | Former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva slightly [widened his lead]( over incumbent Jair Bolsonaro just three days before Brazilians vote in a presidential runoff, according to a Datafolha poll. That is in line with other polls this week that show Bolsonaro’s momentum fading in the wake of campaign gaffes and other incidents. - Lula pledged to combine fiscal and social priorities in a [long letter]( highlighting his main campaign promises. - Telegram and a handful of niche social networks complicate a [contentious debate]( about disinformation ahead of the country’s election. - Listen in as our reporters discuss the latest ahead of the run-off. Our Twitter Space starts at 11am ET and [you can listen via this link](. Bolsonaro and Lula. Photographer: Nelson Almeida/AFP/Getty Images Best of Bloomberg Opinion - [Don’t Exaggerate the Macron-Scholz Cold Snap: Lionel Laurent]( - [What a “Saudi First” Policy Means for Oil and Power: Javier Blas]( - [Sunak Walks Right Into an Immigration Lose-Lose: Therese Raphael]( Bans out | Elon Musk plans to [assume the role]( of CEO at Twitter after completing his $44 billion acquisition, taking the helm of the social media giant on top of leading Tesla and SpaceX, a source says. He also intends to do away with permanent bans on users, which may allow Trump back on to the social media platform. Explainers you can use - [This Is How Long Experts See China Clinging on to Covid Zero]( - [What Is the Metaverse, and Will It Be Worth the Wait?]( - [What Sunday’s Bolsonaro-Lula Runoff Means for Brazil]( Big spender | Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida ordered an extra budget of nearly $200 billion to fund a [stimulus]( package aimed at easing the impact of rising prices. It comes as Kishida seeks to reverse sliding support for his year-old government. Bloomberg TV and Radio air Balance of Power with [David Westin]( on weekdays from 12 to 1pm ET, with a second hour on Bloomberg Radio from 1 to 2pm ET. You can watch and listen on Bloomberg channels and online [here]( or check out prior episodes and guest clips [here](. News to Note - A federal appeals court [rejected Trump’s request]( to reconsider a ruling that his tax returns must be disclosed to a congressional committee. - Thousands of Iranians gathered yesterday to mourn a 16-year-old girl killed in [police crackdowns]( on protests that have roiled the country for nearly six weeks. - Facebook and Instagram are running millions of dollars in ads from so-called [pink-slime newsrooms]( — partisan organizations masquerading as local media outlets — in battleground states heading into the midterms, a new report has found. - A grueling months-long Covid lockdown in Shanghai has [shaken the confidence]( of American firms in China, who cite impending risks of shutdowns, travel curbs and supply chain disruptions for diverting investments. - The [fifth cyberattack]( disclosed in Australia in just one month is triggering calls for greater investment in security and US-style bounties for hackers who find holes in corporate defenses. - South African President Cyril Ramaphosa [criticized the US]( for failing to discuss a terror alert issued by the American Embassy with local authorities beforehand. Pop quiz (no cheating!) Which country's defense minister resigned after suggesting Ukraine may have to cede territory to Russia in any talks to end the war? Send your answers to balancepower@bloomberg.net. And finally ... Discontent [rippled]( through Apple’s biggest iPhone plant in China this week, after hastily enacted measures aimed at quelling a Covid-19 outbreak plunged many of its 200,000 workers into isolation. Food has become a source of unrest after Foxconn, the Taiwanese company that makes most of the phones sold around the world, shut cafeterias at the manufacturing site known as “iPhone City.” The front gate of the Zhengzhou Foxconn factory. Photographer: China Labor Watch Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Balance of Power newsletter. 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